JAZIL....Most Overrated horse in the history of horse racing....

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Gander

Brother Derek is a great horse to have around because he continuously takes strange win money every time he runs, creating better than deserved prices on horses like Arsen Squad (3/1), Awesome Gem (9/1) and Latent Heat (6/1).

But I still think Jazil at 4/5 at Gulfstream 2nd off a race that was very average against a mediocre Take the Bluff, was the worst win bet I have seen this year.

Those who were smart enough to hammer him at 6/1 in the Belmont, good for you. I was one of the stupid ones who thought High Finance was a good enough horse to win.

I was at Gulf for the late ones yesterday and also thought he was a bet against. But mostly I was there because I thought it was an interesting race as opposed to a great betting opportunity as 2.40-1 was no great price on Corinthian either, at least in my mind.

My "worst win odds" of the year at Gulfstream honors go to Miesque's Approval last Saturday at 4/5. Why anyone would take that price on a horse whose last wins were at odds of 40-1, 25-1 and 10-1 absolutely flabbergasts me. It's always nice and interesting to see a BC winner come back to run and I'm a huge Wolfson fan (something like 22 of his 46 wins in 2006 were stakes).

But what the hell is the point of betting these kind of horses at less than even money?

[Buffymommy]

Is this thread still going?

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Is this thread still going?

Is that a rhetorical question?

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Is that a rhetorical question?

Yep. I was amazed since I didn't log on last night that this thread was still towards the top this morning.

[Gander]

I love Corinthian as a horse but I have to agree with you that 2.40/1
was no great shakes on him, even though its always easy to say after a horse destroys a field by 9 that it was easy money. I dont do a lot of betting during the week and I knew that Corinthian would be below my mendoza line so it was a non bet for me. If I had to bet the race, I may have tried to beat Jazil for 2nd and would have lost.

Corinthian has always been a headcase and you never really know what you're going to get come raceday. Not the kind of horse I want at 2/1.

Nice to see him back and in great form.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

Corinthian has always been a headcase and you never really know what you're going to get come raceday. Not the kind of horse I want at 2/1.

This is inconsistent with saying that the 4/5 on Jazil was so awful. (I bet nothing on the race, so there's no rationalizing going on here.)

If you don't think Corinthian is worth a bet at 2-1, then that suggests you think he has less than a 33% chance to win the race. So, who would you give the remaining 67+% chance to win? A good chunk of that HAS to be Jazil's against that weak field.

--Dunbar

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

This is inconsistent with saying that the 4/5 on Jazil was so awful. (I bet nothing on the race, so there's no rationalizing going on here.)

If you don't think Corinthian is worth a bet at 2-1, then that suggests you think he has less than a 33% chance to win the race. So, who would you give the remaining 67+% chance to win? A good chunk of that HAS to be Jazil's against that weak field.

--Dunbar

Couple things...

I was at the race and did not bet it, so no rationalizing here, either.

You leave out the effect of takeout. To me that means it's often the case that there's no horse in any single race worth betting if the actual odds do not exceed your own handicapped line for every horse in that given race to the extent you require to make a wager.

When I looked at this race, I was close in my estimation of what the horses would go off at. I figured JAzil would go off at 4/5, Corinthian at 5/2 and King of Jazz at 7/2. The others I was close on. I would have bet Jazil at 3/2, Corinthian at 7/2 or KoJ at 9/2. None of these were at those numbers.

Total "acceptable" odds for these three horses alone add up to about 1.15-1, so I knew going in it was a race I would not be very likely to bet.

Most races look this way to me. You?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Couple things...

I was at the race and did not bet it, so no rationalizing here, either.

You leave out the effect of takeout. To me that means it's often the case that there's no horse in any single race worth betting if the actual odds do not exceed your own handicapped line for every horse in that given race to the extent you require to make a wager.

When I looked at this race, I was close in my estimation of what the horses would go off at. I figured JAzil would go off at 4/5, Corinthian at 5/2 and King of Jazz at 7/2. The others I was close on. I would have bet Jazil at 3/2, Corinthian at 7/2 or KoJ at 9/2. None of these were at those numbers.

Total "acceptable" odds for these three horses alone add up to about 1.15-1, so I knew going in it was a race I would not be very likely to bet.

Most races look this way to me. You?

STS, I didn't leave out the effect of track takeout. I said that not being willing to bet Corinthian at 2-1 suggests that one does not think Corinthian has a 33% chance to win the race. That statement is independent of takeout. If Corinthian has better than a 33% chance to win the race, then 2-1 is a good bet. (even more so when 2-1 represents everything from 2-1 to 2.49-1). I also wrote that if Corinthian has at most a 33% chance to win the race, then the other horses must have at least a 67% chance to win the race. That's also independent of takeout. The chance of all the horses has to add to 100%.

I agree with you that most races don't have a good bet. I usually won't bother to make a line unless I have good reason to think the public will seriously over- or underestimate a particular horse. Even then, I often end up with no horse to bet.

I didn't cap the Corinthian/Jazil race, so I can't really comment on the odds you came up with.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

Has anybody made excuses for Jazil yesterday? I haven't heard any.


Ummm, the jockey moved too soon, Corinthian was just too fast for him, Gulfstream favors speed.