Hwjb's betting diary

[Hwjb]

Yeah, Vortex made sense yesterday. What do you fancy there today?


Great shout, hooves!

[Unstable]

I'm not quite sure, looks difficult there today. Compton's Eleven usually runs well there, but spotlight has napped that so probably won't be any value.

Mike De Kock has suggested that Engrupido could be as good as his good thing in the guineas so i have had a bit on that.

The most interesting race is the 12furlong handicap. Quijano looks sure to go off odds on now, but looks a tough race. If the ex Brazilian horse (Dono Da Raia) is fit he will probably win but he is available at big prices currently behind stablemate Laverock. Land n Stars seems quite well fancied.

There is a big word around for the ex Aidan O'Brien Arabian Prince later on, he could be worth a nice e/w bet.

Can't see anything beating Asiatic Boy in the guineas, apart fro Rallying Cry everything else seems unfancied.

The last looks like a minefield.


What do you think of Neshla in the first at southwell? surely this is MUCH better than a 50rated handicapper. Seb Sanders is in good form and so is Clive.

[Hwjb]

Neshla does look capable of better now handicapping, she travelled well for a long way over a trip which appeared to stretch her stamina last time. The form of the yard is a plus. Mister Maq would be the one she has to beat for me.

Also at Wolves I'd take Bentley to defy a penalty, as his victory over Jojesse at Southwell last time is probably form to view positively. He does tend to need a strong pace over 5f though.

In the 4.25 Satyricon is one to stay with. He finally confirmed the promise of his debut when barely needing to improve to win at Kempton last weekend. Unpenalised he makes plenty of appeal so long as he's in the same form for his second race back off a break.



I agree that Compton's Eleven looks the pick of the weights and he does go well fresh, so I'm going to throw a few quid at him. Greek Renaissance isn't one to give up on though.
King's Point is another that has been put up by Spotlight, but I agree that he's got a good chance as his last run can safely be ignored.
Quijano appeals as a worthy contender for the Sheema Classic on World Cup night, so I'd expect him to win here.
Have just noticed that Spotlight has also gone for Obe Gold, who won off a 5lb higher mark on his reappearance here last year, and is probably worth having a go at.

Good luck!

[Hwjb]

Kempton:
2:00: New Entic: 2pts win
3:40: Milan Deux Mille 4pts win
4:15: Supreme Stopper, sorry, Copper: 3pts e/w

Wolves:
1:40: Neshla 1pt win
Mister Maq 1pt win
2:10: Fast Heart 2pts win
2:45: Bentley 4pts win
3:50: Almaty Express 2pts win
4:25: Satyricon 5pts win

Nad
3:25: Compton's Eleven 2pts e/w
3:55: Mezel 1pt win
4:40: King's Point 2pts e/w
5:10: Quijano 5pts win
5:40: Illustrious Blue 1pt win
6:40: Obe Gold 2pts e/w

[Hwjb]

Kempton:
2:00: New Entic: 2pts win: 4th of 5 @ 5/2: -2pts: Absolute hound!!
3:40: Milan Deux Mille 4pts win: 1st of 8 @ evs: +4pts: Won despite jumping markedly left
4:15: Supreme Stopper, sorry, Copper: 3pts e/w: 2nd of 14 : 6/1: +1.5pts: Handbreak finally off. Again tanked through race, but didn't find as much as seemed likely and finished tires. Poss breath prob.

Wolves:
1:40: Neshla 1pt win: 7th of 12 @ 15/2: -1pt Massive drifter
Mister Maq 1pt win: 5th of 12 @ 11/1: -1pt
2:10: Fast Heart 2pts win: 2nd of 11 @ 10/11: -2pts
2:45: Bentley 4pts win: 1st of 8 @ 5/4: +5pts
3:50: Almaty Express 2pts win: N/R
4:25: Satyricon 5pts win: N/R

Nad
3:25: Compton's Eleven 2pts e/w: 6th of 12 @ 4/1: -4pts Best ignored.
3:55: Mezel 1pt win: 14th of 15 @ 8/1: -1pt
4:40: King's Point 2pts e/w: 12th of 13 @ 17/2: -4pts: Weakened as if amiss
5:10: Quijano 5pts win: 1st of 11 @ 8/11: +3.64pts
5:40: Illustrious Blue 1pt win: 1st of 10 @ 15/2: +7.5pts
6:40: Obe Gold 2pts e/w: 5th of 12 @ 11/2: -4pts


Day: +2.64pts
Total: +201.43pts

[Hwjb]

Illustrious Blue is a horse I really like, I just wonder how much further improvement he'll find...he's already progressed 2.5 stone since the beginning of lsat season. Whilst he's done well to win this smart event, he probably found himself in a good spot off bottom weight in a race where a number of those behind were below their best/didn't get run of race. Still wouldn't be laying him for the Lincoln though!

A fine performance from Laverock, who didn't really deserved to be pipped by the German horse - although I was glad that he was - and Laverock must now head to the Sheema with excellent claims.

I'm going to stick with Compton's Eleven in the upcoming weeks. He didn't get the clearest of runs, looking to me as if in form, and is lower in the weights than when winning at the Carnival last year. Similar story with Obe Gold, although it was his stablemate Grantley Adams who looked even more unfortunate and is very much one to keep an eye on.

[Hwjb]

Jokestone:

2:10: Back On Line 1pt win
3:10: Kanad 2pts win


Southwell

1:50: Brut 2pts win
Monda 1pt win
Newkeylets 1pt e/w
1,4,5,6,7 0.1pt CTC
3:20: Red Contact 1pt win
3:50: Saviours Spirit 2pts win
Smokin Beau 1pt win
4:20: Shape Up 2pts e/w
4:50 Kings Shillings 3pts win

[Unstable]

Greek Renaissance has been well backed all morning, i had a bit on him to place. Still waiting toi get on Compton's Eleven at 5's.

Will have a look at the rest of the wolves card, nothing stuck out for me though, looks very tricky and the surface is likely to ride very slow today, i reckon...... might just catch a few out.

Obe Gold is interesting as you say, but the race looks a complete lottery.

Quijano has got to win if he will have any chance in the sheema classic but not preapred to bet him odds on.

[Unstable]

Satyricon should go close but not drawn to well over the 7furlong start........ might be tricky from that draw.

[Unstable]

Didn't matter in the endwith the wolverhampton card!!!

Gutted today, picked the first winner at Wolves out last night, then today found spotlight had gone for it (hate it when they tip my selection) instead of having a fiver onto win at 10's i limited my bet to 4quid to be placed at 11/4!!!!!

[Unstable]

Oh forgot to mention, as soon as i Illustrious Blue won in Dubai i got on at 16.5 for the Lincoln....... hope he runs in it now!