Can you really make money in this game ?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Another dart-thrower..

That's me.

I just wish I was more connected to that oh-so-reliable backstretch chatter.

Oh well.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's me.

I just wish I was more connected to that oh-so-reliable backstretch chatter.

Oh well.

More STEAM!

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

More STEAM!

remember, one has to know how to seperate the STEAM from the chatter...

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's me.

I just wish I was more connected to that oh-so-reliable backstretch chatter.

Oh well.

Whatever dude. I say it's easier when you know rather than guess, but that's just me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Whatever dude. I say it's easier when you know rather than guess, but that's just me.

You are assuming that the people you listed " know ". I believe that, in general, they don't.

I have won over time for a long time while getting very little information. For the most part I very rarely seek information and only listen to what over time has proven reliable. For the most part I very rarely even ask.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

As they say......

"Horseplayers who make the mistake of fraternizing with horsemen will eventually regret it."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cal828

They seem to want to explain how it's done, but they are not saying that they're doing it.

I did it.

Happy?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are assuming that the people you listed " know ". I believe that, in general, they don't.

I have won over time for a long time while getting very little information. For the most part I very rarely seek information and only listen to what over time has proven reliable. For the most part I very rarely even ask.

So the trainer of a class dropper doesn't know better than the handicapper whether or not he's trying to get rid of the horse or just get the horse a confidence-builder? That's gotta be one clueless trainer.

And the jockey aboard a lame horse just in a race to get claimed doesn't know more than the handicapper?

And the exercise riders who are aboard a horse every morning don't know better than the handicapper how well one of their horses is training?

Here's the bottom line: You can be the best handicapper on the planet.. If the trainer of a horse you like isn't in the race to win it, you're cooked. Period.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So the trainer of a class dropper doesn't know better than the handicapper whether or not he's trying to get rid of the horse or just get the horse a confidence-builder? That's gotta be one clueless trainer.

And the jockey aboard a lame horse just in a race to get claimed doesn't know more than the handicapper?

And the exercise riders who are aboard a horse every morning don't know better than the handicapper how well one of their horses is training?

Here's the bottom line: You can be the best handicapper on the planet.. If the trainer of a horse you like isn't in the race to win it, you're cooked. Period.

Yep, that's one more handicapping angle.

When I've been at a track or OTB and some seasoned player is saying something to the effect of "these races are fixed!", I've often suggested "then handicap the fix."

And I've meant it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So the trainer of a class dropper doesn't know better than the handicapper whether or not he's trying to get rid of the horse or just get the horse a confidence-builder? That's gotta be one clueless trainer.

And the jockey aboard a lame horse just in a race to get claimed doesn't know more than the handicapper?

And the exercise riders who are aboard a horse every morning don't know better than the handicapper how well one of their horses is training?

Here's the bottom line: You can be the best handicapper on the planet.. If the trainer of a horse you like isn't in the race to win it, you're cooked. Period.

I'm in no way suggesting there is no validity to what you are saying, and certainly specific instances you give can be helpful, but in order for it to be at all helpful you have to know how good the opinions are that you are getting.

As DrugS pointed out earlier, the connections you describe are too close to their horses, and their opinions are stilted. A good handicapper, while he may not have specific information, knows how to make reasonable judgements, at least generally, about the information you are referring to. And, as he will have an even and unbiased view of the ENTIRE field, he can weigh everything together. Will he make mistakes? Of course, but over time he will have a far fairer and more balanced judgement of the races.

Believe me, I have had MANY people of the categories you describe give me poor and inaccurate insights. I have been successful trusting my judgement in the past and I will continue to do so. I will be wrong more often than I am right....but it seems to work out in the end.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm in no way suggesting there is no validity to what you are saying, and certainly specific instances you give can be helpful, but in order for it to be at all helpful you have to know how good the opinions are that you are getting.

As DrugS pointed out earlier, the connections you describe are too close to their horses, and their opinions are stilted. A good handicapper, while he may not have specific information, knows how to make reasonable judgements, at least generally, about the information you are referring to. And, as he will have an even and unbiased view of the ENTIRE field, he can weigh everything together. Will he make mistakes? Of course, but over time he will have a far fairer and more balanced judgement of the races.

Believe me, I have had MANY people of the categories you describe give me poor and inaccurate insights. I have been successful trusting my judgement in the past and I will continue to do so. I will be wrong more often than I am right....but it seems to work out in the end.

Fair enough. But I'm afraid that what I'm saying is being misinterpreted as "bet every horse you hear something about".. And that's not what I'm saying. I'm just making the point that if you take someone who handicaps the race versus someone who personally KNOWS connections in the race AND handicaps the race.. I think the latter has the former beaten far more often than not.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Fair enough. But I'm afraid that what I'm saying is being misinterpreted as "bet every horse you hear something about".. And that's not what I'm saying. I'm just making the point that if you take someone who handicaps the race versus someone who personally KNOWS connections in the race AND handicaps the race.. I think the latter has the former beaten far more often than not.

It may be being misinterpreted by some but I know what you're saying.

No doubt reliable information can be helpful, especially if you get it after you have fully handicapped the race, as then it won't affect your judgement. I have just never had the inclination to seek out information. To me, these people work their butts off and I think it is unfair of me to even ask them. They go to work when I go to bed for God's sake.

When I do the shows in Saratoga I basically beg people not to give me info prior to the shows as I feel obligated to repeat anything I know or heard.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm just making the point that if you take someone who handicaps the race versus someone who personally KNOWS connections in the race AND handicaps the race.. I think the latter has the former beaten far more often than not.

As logical as what you are saying may sound on the surface.....I totally disagree with it.

Most people, over the long haul, have no chance to win. It is not a question of intelligence, education level or "inside information", but rather the ability to gather data, analyze such and make sound judgements regarding which pool to jump into and how deep to dive.

Handicapping is not a glamorous endeavor; it requires a remarkable amount of study and dedication, often without reward. By asking the profitability question you indicate, you are going thru a period of frustration with your selections and subsequently challenge anyone else's ability.

Even if you have read epics such as "Picking Winners", "Ainslies Guide..." anything by Quirin, or several dozen other great books, you are still at the mercy of understanding the past performances. Few do, perhaps one out of a thousand.

Concentrate on a specialty, preferably one with a high return. If you are a new to the game; play vertical (trifecta, superfecta etc.) and bet the minimum. Stay focused and ignore "tips" from ANYONE, especially those that offer multiple selections in the same race, without analysis. Analyze all of your plays, both before and after the race. Grow a thick skin. BBB

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

In the midst of your hidden shot on members here you forgot to add lying through your teeth about how much you make gambling in the year. That seems to be your specialty. At least I don't hide my shots....

The following is what brought tears of hysteria to my eyes....

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

make sound judgements regarding which pool to jump into and how deep to dive.

From a guy who claims to bet under $35 a week.


BWAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It is kind of funny the whole game that is being played. Annoying but funny.

It's not annoying. He's condescending ( you should see his act on another board ) and takes repeated cheap shots but he actually offers some decent insights into handicapping. I don't agree with some of what he says, but that's fine as there are many ways to go about handicapping, and the only truly disingenuous thing he does is suggesting he knows his ways provide an avenue to success even though HE doesn't trust them enough to actually wager.

He's a student of the game, which is great, and if he would start really betting he could probably improve. People should bet what they can afford, and are comfortable with, and perhaps that is the reason he doesn't really bet. However, to teach yourself to even have a chance to win you have to bet enough to feel the pain of losing, so ( unless you really like losing ) you will then figure out your mistakes and move forward from there.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Well said as usual. I happen to think he is just completely full of sh*t when it comes to what he bets and how much. Personally I think he's putting in a lot more money than what he says. But I'm a untrusting pessimist anyway so what do I know?

I hope he is betting more as he certainly seems to devote a real amount of time to handicapping.

I find his thoughts about the turf rails a bit interesting ( and perplexing ). Personally I have never paid attention to this, and done well in turf racing, but it's very possible his thoughts have at least some merit. I wonder if anyone else here has any thoughts on turf rail placement and its possible effects on the dynamics of races.

I don't mean to knock people for betting small amounts. I just think it is important to bet at least a reasonable amount if you are going to even attempt to pass yourself off as some kind of expert. The simple fact is you cannot really learn how one might be a successful player unless you invest somewhat seriously. It is important, especially in betting Pick-4s like he claims to bet, to learn how to spend your money in order to maximize your chances of success.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't remember what he was saying about the rails. But if he was saying when the rails are out farther speed carries better I think he is right. but I also heard that years ago. I found during the fall Belmont meet when the rail was way out speed was very good, or at least I thought. I remember hitting a nice Amy Tarrant turf firster that outfinished a chalky Mott horse. made the lead and seemed to carry her speed real well. now was it the rail or did the turf wake her up? Who knows but I think the rail thing might have some validity.

I bet Hopes and Dreams in that race. She won back next out at Calder and did OK in a subsequent Gulfstream race. I believe the Amy Tarrant horse came back to run poorly at Gulfstream. She ran like it was more than any rail placement was helping her that day at Belmont.

I will have to ask some people smarter than me about this. Won't be hard to find them.