kip devile 9/2 vs. showing up 6/1

Originally Posted by Exceller

I don't think his race was terrible, but a big grade 1 and the classic distance might be a little over his head.

He only ever carried that speed two turns one time and that really was a fluke. He shipped to Philly Park on a day when the track was scraped to the bone, fast and speed favoring and he got real loose agaisnt some horses who werent very good. That was the Penn derby. Hes a very fast horse but two turns against top company is not his game. The race came up weak and he had been training good so he took a shot. The way Gander talks you would think he was 3-5 and breaking from the rail rather than a horse with a so so shot who drew the 10 hole in a two turn race.
The only way to get lucky and steal a race you aren't maybe the best in, is to take a shot. Kinda Like MOquette did with Seek Gold, or D wayne did one year in the Belmont with Commendable. Some guys only run their horses is soft spots to pad their % and never take a crack. They hurt their owners by doing this, picking out only soft spots and never giving the owners a chance to cash out and get lucky. Real good trainers do not pick out exclusively soft spots so they can get a win and pad the % totals.