The Donn This Saturday

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

Let me take a shot at a ML...

1 Invasor (ARG) Jara F 123 L 3/5
2 Halos Sailing Sain Bravo J 112 L 30/1
3 A. P. Arrow Desormeaux K J 112 L 12/1
4 Chatain Velasquez C 114 L 8/1
5 Tap Dancing Mauk Nunez E O 112 L 50/1
6 Hesanoldsalt Bejarano R 114 L 20/1
7 Magna Graduate Velazquez J R 118 L 9/2
8 Barcola Castellano J J 110 L 40/1
9 Strong Contender Prado E S 117 L 7/2

Gander, are you predicting how the betting will go, or is that an estimate of "fair odds"?

Here's my preliminary fair odds line:

PP# Horse Fair odds
1 Invasor 1-1
2 Halos Sailing Sain 60
3 AP Arrow 15
4 Chatain 10
5 Tap Dancing Mauk 125
6 Hesanoldsalt 12
7 Magna Grad 15
8 Barcola 15
9 Strong contender 10

IMO Invasor has about a 50% chance to win the race. If he has half the money in the win pool bet on him, he will be bet down to around 3-5. If he gets bet down further than that, I think he becomes a bet-against.

Anyone else think Barcola, shedding 14 lbs from his last race, is worth a look if 25-1?

--Dunbar