The Donn This Saturday

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Ya see, this is a perfect example, as he isn't going to bounce when he inevitably runs poorly. He won last time cruising on the lead, on the rail, on a super rail/speed biased racetrack. Even the second and third finishers rode the rail the whole way ( and we saw how well Papa Chullo ran last week ). His win was a phony bias aided effort and tomorrow he will have to run like a genuine racehorse.

He won't bounce....he will run to his actual ability.

Exactly, he cruised on the lead on the inner, in a six horse field at an unusual distance. I don't trust the figure at all and expect he'll run back like he usually does.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Exactly, he cruised on the lead on the inner, in a six horse field at an unusual distance. I don't trust the figure at all and expect he'll run back like he usually does.

Unusual disances are problematic in making numbers, and do result in questionable numbers more often than traditional distances, but his raw Beyer figure for his last was much higher. However, other figure makers I respect agree with Beyer's ultimate determination.

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way, for the most part, the inner has been even since January 10th.

Coincidentally right after my last, and biggest, rant about it on ATRAB.

Frankly, I would like two weeks more of gold rails now, as I am running out of wide trip bet backs. Not totally however.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Exactly, he cruised on the lead on the inner, in a six horse field at an unusual distance. I don't trust the figure at all and expect he'll run back like he usually does.

If you haven't read Picking Winners and Beyer on Speed, you are doing your self a disservice. Both books are well written and they are entertaining. Beyer explains exactly how the figures are made. Once you understand the logic in how the figs are made, it's a lot easier to discard races which you disagree with. The numbers are only a measure of final race time and when sometimes projections involved in formulating the figs. That's why it is wise to save charts from the circuit you follow and keep tabs on how horses run going forward. Unstanding how the figs helped me a great deal in handicapping races.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pick4

If you haven't read Picking Winners and Beyer on Speed, you are doing your self a disservice. Both books are well written and they are entertaining. Beyer explains exactly how the figures are made. Once you understand the logic in how the figs are made, it's a lot easier to discard races which you disagree with. The numbers are only a measure of final race time and when sometimes projections involved in formulating the figs. That's why it is wise to save charts from the circuit you follow and keep tabs on how horses run going forward. Unstanding how the figs helped me a great deal in handicapping races.

I read those books many many moons ago. I agree that they are excellent books and I would recommend then to anyone getting into the sport. To be honest I think Picking Winners is what got me hooked on racing and handicapping. That and a horse called Affirmed

I am slightly puzzled as to why you are recommending them to me? What was it about my post that made you think that I hadn't yet read them?