The Donn This Saturday

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

ok now when you say that are you talking about the RACE or the betting on the race?

because I find it to be decidedly one-sided....

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

fair, but i still think it's his race tomorrow. i'll eat crow tomorrow if it comes to that, i don't see either big favorite getting beat, him or invasor

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

fair, but i still think it's his race tomorrow. i'll eat crow tomorrow if it comes to that, i don't see either big favorite getting beat, him or invasor

I'm talking about trying to make money playing the horses, and there are times to take a stand and times not to, and if you play multi-race wagers you are foolish to stand alone. Maybe you want to go 60-40 ( though I will split it down the middle ) but you will not make money in this game singling when two gets it done. That I promise you.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm talking about trying to make money playing the horses, and there are times to take a stand and times not to, and if you play multi-race wagers you are foolish to stand alone. Maybe you want to go 60-40 ( though I will split it down the middle ) but you will not make money in this game singling when two gets it done. That I promise you.

sorry i got sucked into the holy bull discussion.

were i playing with money tomorrow, i'd be playing the hell out of invasor and going deeper in the others -- i don't see either losing, but i'd bet my money on invasor and spread in the other legs. i'm not advocating singling twice in this ticket....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

sorry i got sucked into the holy bull discussion.

were i playing with money tomorrow, i'd be playing the hell out of invasor and going deeper in the others -- i don't see either losing, but i'd bet my money on invasor and spread in the other legs. i'm not advocating singling twice in this ticket....

There's also a Pick-4 on the last four races. Torini, who's in the 10th, may have a real future.

[tycharles01]

Guys what you think about Drums of Thunder tomm?? I think he will love a mile could give SCAT a run???

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Guys what you think about Drums of Thunder tomm?? I think he will love a mile could give SCAT a run???

What I don't like is that his routes seem to lack speed in the early stages of the race, then he closes strongly. That is not the profile I look for at the one turn mile at the Gulf. Better to have speed.

[horseofcourse]

What's wrong with a shot with Magna Graduate in the Donn? He ran huge last time at Aqueduct didn't he after a terrible first out after his break...what a 110 Beyer or something?? Hasn't Gulfstream been favoring speed somewhat a bit recently?? It's hard for me to see INvasor as a lock here.

[Scav]

Bounce for me with Magna Graduate....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Bounce for me with Magna Graduate....

Ya see, this is a perfect example, as he isn't going to bounce when he inevitably runs poorly. He won last time cruising on the lead, on the rail, on a super rail/speed biased racetrack. Even the second and third finishers rode the rail the whole way ( and we saw how well Papa Chullo ran last week ). His win was a phony bias aided effort and tomorrow he will have to run like a genuine racehorse.

He won't bounce....he will run to his actual ability.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Scav

Bounce for me with Magna Graduate....

Wasn't that over two months ago? How do you bounce with two months off? I don't know how good he'll be, just seems interesting to me here and on this track.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

oops, i said the same thing. i just took longer to say it. the one turn mile is one of the key elements in SD's favor. NoBiz gets stronger in my view when they get back to real two turn routes.

Scat Daddy has speed that can get the job done on a one turn mile.