The Donn This Saturday

[Scav]

No-Biz is another horse you can't really unload on in exotics becuase that race means little to him. He already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby, the main goal, and Tagg is going to be progressive with him.....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

No-Biz is another horse you can't really unload on in exotics becuase that race means little to him. He already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby, the main goal, and Tagg is going to be progressive with him.....

here I agree with you. while no biz I feel is the better horse and stronger derby contender, tomorrow is not a make or break day. they'll be happy if he just keeps moving forward. can't go all in on him although there aren't many other alternatives beside SD.

[Scav]

The horse I caution people to be careful with is Cursora. Look who she has been facing, Take D' Tour, Ermine, Chic Dancer (was going to be 2nd favorite in the Bev D)

she has been training well and could surprise here

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

The horse I caution people to be careful with is Cursora. Look who she has been facing, Take D' Tour, Ermine, Chic Dancer (was going to be 2nd favorite in the Bev D)

she has been training well and could surprise here

That is a tricky race as there is a chance Naissance Royale doesn't have that winner's determination but she is most likely the best horse, with a good post, coming off an impossible trip. I don't think it's even close who the second best horse in the race is, in fact it's more likely she's the best horse than the third best horse, and that's Nottawasaga. Her last was super impressive and I expect her to be a force in this division in 2007. I am a little concerned she won't run her best race second off a layoff but I believe she is clearly no worse than the second likeliest winner.

To me most of the others are similar, and too slow, and if I was going to toss in one outlyer it would be La Dolce Vita. You can have the rest ( though I was impressed with J'Ray rallying inside on the Calder turf last out, which is not easy, but she's just too slow ).

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That is a tricky race as there is a chance Naissance Royale doesn't have that winner's determination but she is most likely the best horse, with a good post, coming off an impossible trip. I don't think it's even close who the second best horse in the race is, in fact it's more likely she's the best horse than the third best horse, and that's Nottawasaga. Her last was super impressive and I expect her to be a force in this division in 2007. I am a little concerned she won't run her best race second off a layoff but I believe she is clearly no worse than the second likeliest winner.

To me most of the others are similar, and too slow, and if I was going to toss in one outlyer it would be La Dolce Vita. You can have the rest ( though I was impressed with J'Ray rallying inside on the Calder turf last out, which is not easy, but she's just too slow ).

Yeah, her last figure was monsterous. I know you don't subscribe to the bounce theory but for me she is screaming BOUNCE, like I could hear her from the moon.......

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, her last figure was monsterous. I know you don't subscribe to the bounce theory but for me she is screaming BOUNCE, like I could hear her from the moon.......

My biggest problem with the supposed BOUNCE theory is I think it is grossly overused and misappropriated as mostly it is a result of ideal conditions in one race and less than ideal ones in another. However, that being said, I do think second off a layoff, after a big return, is the race a horse is most likely to react. But, I also believe good horses don't react, and there is at least a chance Nottawasaga is a genuinely good horse.

You can't argue that if she runs back to last time she is far and away the biggest threat to the favorite. For that reason, if you are taking a shot with Strong Contender in the Pick-3, you should use her somewhere in your play. You will still get value.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My biggest problem with the supposed BOUNCE theory is I think it is grossly overused and misappropriated as mostly it is a result of ideal conditions in one race and less than ideal ones in another. However, that being said, I do think second off a layoff, after a big return, is the race a horse is most likely to react. But, I also believe good horses don't react, and there is at least a chance Nottawasaga is a genuinely good horse.

You can't argue that if she runs back to last time she is far and away the biggest threat to the favorite. For that reason, if you are taking a shot with Strong Contender in the Pick-3, you should use her somewhere in your play. You will still get value.

I hope this didn't get you all fired up this late.......

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That is a tricky race as there is a chance Naissance Royale doesn't have that winner's determination but she is most likely the best horse, with a good post, coming off an impossible trip. I don't think it's even close who the second best horse in the race is, in fact it's more likely she's the best horse than the third best horse, and that's Nottawasaga. Her last was super impressive and I expect her to be a force in this division in 2007. I am a little concerned she won't run her best race second off a layoff but I believe she is clearly no worse than the second likeliest winner.

To me most of the others are similar, and too slow, and if I was going to toss in one outlyer it would be La Dolce Vita. You can have the rest ( though I was impressed with J'Ray rallying inside on the Calder turf last out, which is not easy, but she's just too slow ).

Naissance Royal and Nottawasaga are the two that i have marked as standouts from the rest of the field. After them I have about 4-5 in the same ballpark. I had planned to spread a lot in this raise but weighted fairly heavy to the two standouts.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Naissance Royal and Nottawasaga are the two that i have marked as standouts from the rest of the field. After them I have about 4-5 in the same ballpark. I had planned to spread a lot in this raise but weighted fairly heavy to the two standouts.

I agree.

Maybe I am just not seeing tomorrow's races clearly but I find them very formful looking and lacking in great opportunity.

It feels like a decent day to bet a few bucks in the Pick-6 and hope for the best.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree.

Maybe I am just not seeing tomorrow's races clearly but I find them very formful looking and lacking in great opportunity.

It feels like a decent day to bet a few bucks in the Pick-6 and hope for the best.

Yeah, same here. Not terribly excited about finding value in the big races. Will just watch and look for spots here or there.

You gave me an idea about the pick six. It might be worth a stab if its going to be a formful day.