The Donn This Saturday

The key is IF???

[Scav]

Speaking in TG terms, of all horses, Magna Graduate is the fastest horse, so far. That being said, I think he bounces to the moon. Two horses that you have to watch out here are Hesanoldsalt and Strong Contender. Each horse has some solid reasoning IMO. I am going to be gambling on the fact that Invasor is not 100% cranked. He was kept in training for ONE GOAL, the Dubai World Cup, another Grade 1 gets him NOTHING. At 3/5, he is beatable.

Most of Salt's family improved with age, and his last race was his 'best' race yet as far as figures. If he is keen earlier, he is toast as their is alot of bs speed in this race.

Now SC is a horse that I just can't figure out. That being said, he is just as fast as Invasor and will 5 or 6/1. If he runs to his LAD or that huge Belmont race, he wins here, and maybe quite easily.

I think the way you play this race is in the pick threes, all the hilarious public will be singling Invasor (my guess is about 85% of the tickets will have invasor on the ticket somewhere). Be part of that 15% and the $20 pick three ticket that you played might get you back a grand.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

Speaking in TG terms, of all horses, Magna Graduate is the fastest horse, so far. That being said, I think he bounces to the moon. Two horses that you have to watch out here are Hesanoldsalt and Strong Contender. Each horse has some solid reasoning IMO. I am going to be gambling on the fact that Invasor is not 100% cranked. He was kept in training for ONE GOAL, the Dubai World Cup, another Grade 1 gets him NOTHING. At 3/5, he is beatable.

Most of Salt's family improved with age, and his last race was his 'best' race yet as far as figures. If he is keen earlier, he is toast as their is alot of bs speed in this race.

Now SC is a horse that I just can't figure out. That being said, he is just as fast as Invasor and will 5 or 6/1. If he runs to his LAD or that huge Belmont race, he wins here, and maybe quite easily.

I think the way you play this race is in the pick threes, all the hilarious public will be singling Invasor (my guess is about 85% of the tickets will have invasor on the ticket somewhere). Be part of that 15% and the $20 pick three ticket that you played might get you back a grand.

Invasor will not lose to this bunch. You're wasting your money. I'd pick a different favorite to knock off. McLaughlin said because the DWC is not so far away from the BCC, they never let up on him. He as as close to 100% as he's going to be and he doesn't need to be at 100% to cruise tomorrow.
that's my opinion.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Invasor will not lose to this bunch. You're wasting your money. I'd pick a different favorite to knock off. McLaughlin said because the DWC is not so far away from the BCC, they never let up on him. He as as close to 100% as he's going to be and he doesn't need to be at 100% to cruise tomorrow.
that's my opinion.

Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)

as the mighty Steve Byk told us this past weekend at Gulfstream, "with Kieran, it's almost the longer they've been off the better they are coming back."

Take it to the bank. At 3/5, but still, take it.

I'd cover your value horses in the other races with Invasor and try to get back a little on the pick-X if you're wrong.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

as the mighty Steve Byk told us this past weekend at Gulfstream, "with Kieran, it's almost the longer they've been off the better they are coming back."

Take it to the bank. At 3/5, but still, take it.

I'd cover your value horses in the other races with Invasor and try to get back a little on the pick-X if you're wrong.

LOL!! Cover!!!!! Not covering here my friend, only cover when I am alive to the heavy chalk for big money and I spread out on the 20/1's to guarantee to a profit....

I am like Anikan Skywalker and Byk is like Obi Wan, except Anikan doesn't lose his legs in our story.....

Think about it from an owners perspective, all this race is meant for is to peak Invasor's interest again so I could show him off in my region in his next start. It just so happens to be a Grade 1 because they still get a decent paycheck to workout and run 3rd. Money is no object to them, but a free day of training for the owner (running 3rd almost equates to that amount, roughly) is better then just working in the morning

[coltsfan]

I could be way off here (wouldn't be the first time), but I really think Chatain is sitting on a HUGE race. This guy has the possibilty to put on a freak performance in the Donn. Won the Hal after 2+ layoff. Comes back with a bullet Jan 29th. I see no bounce here.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

I've loved Strong Contender for some time, but the only horse I see beating Invasor tomorrow is Chatain...and it won't be on his own merits, but only if Invasor doesn't come with his "A-game."

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I've loved Strong Contender for some time, but the only horse I see beating Invasor tomorrow is Chatain...and it won't be on his own merits, but only if Invasor doesn't come with his "A-game."

I can't make a case for anyone beating Invasor. If lightening strikes or there is something wrong, thats one thing. But i can't look at the pp's and say, yeah this horse has a chance.

Chatain? Off his stirring defeat of Sir Greeley and SNS in the Hals Hope is now going to knock off Invasor in his next start? I just don't see it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

right, but let's say we concede that to you.....

at 80% he's still better than most this field, given strong contender's inconsistency and chatain's certain unknown possibilities.....

which means that even with one misfire, he still walks even if he's not amped for this.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

WTF! Sunshine millions? what did i do? are you confusing me with someone else?

They won't need to gut him to win, that's my point. he can win this in a hand ride and pride is important. You think they want as a tune-up to the DWC to not be able to beat Strong Contender?

we'll see. any horse can lose but i'm not betting that Invasor loses against these. plenty of other races to have an opinion on.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

His post makes sense. He's looking to hit a grand slam. If a longshot wins and it's on his ticket he'll be position to hit BIG. Worth a $20 gamble.

I think the favorite in the 8th is going to win which will lower the payouts on a Strong Contender win.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

His post makes sense. He's looking to hit a grand slam. If a longshot wins and it's on his ticket he'll be position to hit BIG. Worth a $20 gamble.

I think the favorite in the 8th is going to win which will lower the payouts on a Strong Contender win.

People are going to over play that favorite in the 8th, for good reason. EVEN if both favorites win (Biz/Royale) I am still alive to a better ticket then a $20 win wager in my opinion. I am gambling on the fact that 85 to 90% of the tickets have Invasor, and then people will get sucked into Chaitan and Magna

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Invasor will not lose to this bunch. You're wasting your money. I'd pick a different favorite to knock off. McLaughlin said because the DWC is not so far away from the BCC, they never let up on him. He as as close to 100% as he's going to be and he doesn't need to be at 100% to cruise tomorrow.
that's my opinion.

I tend to agree. He just doesn't seem like the kind of horse it is worth a lot of time and money trying to beat. There are simply better opportunities.

From a Pick-6 perspective, you pretty much single him, depending on how big your play is, and spend your money more beneficially in other races.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Speaking in TG terms, of all horses, Magna Graduate is the fastest horse, so far. That being said, I think he bounces to the moon. Two horses that you have to watch out here are Hesanoldsalt and Strong Contender. Each horse has some solid reasoning IMO. I am going to be gambling on the fact that Invasor is not 100% cranked. He was kept in training for ONE GOAL, the Dubai World Cup, another Grade 1 gets him NOTHING. At 3/5, he is beatable.

Most of Salt's family improved with age, and his last race was his 'best' race yet as far as figures. If he is keen earlier, he is toast as their is alot of bs speed in this race.

Now SC is a horse that I just can't figure out. That being said, he is just as fast as Invasor and will 5 or 6/1. If he runs to his LAD or that huge Belmont race, he wins here, and maybe quite easily.

I think the way you play this race is in the pick threes, all the hilarious public will be singling Invasor (my guess is about 85% of the tickets will have invasor on the ticket somewhere). Be part of that 15% and the $20 pick three ticket that you played might get you back a grand.

1.) i bet more then 85% of the public has invasor on their ticket. those trying to leave him off completely are just stabbing at huge payoffs, not legitimately capping the races. going more than one deep? maaaaaaaaybe. leaving him off totally? dead money anyway because those guys aren't going to hit the other races

2.) I haven't seen the TG sheets....Magna is really faster than Invasor?!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

1.) i bet more then 85% of the public has invasor on their ticket. those trying to leave him off completely are just stabbing at huge payoffs, not legitimately capping the races. going more than one deep? maaaaaaaaybe. leaving him off totally? dead money anyway because those guys aren't going to hit the other races

2.) I haven't seen the TG sheets....Magna is really faster than Invasor?!

What I am doing is playing a ticket like this, probably 5x4xStrong Contender. There is SERIOUS value on SC in the pick three's, maybe 20/1 or 30/1 in the pick threes, becuase everyone will be singling Invasor. All i will need to do is win the other two races, and I am fairly confident that I can get there, a $20 win wager on SC will get you back $120, but this ticket could yield at a minimum of $300 if I get there, and possibly as much as 1 or 2k if a bomb runs in the 1st or 2nd leg.....worth a $20 investment, possible a $100 investment because I have a feeling that SC runs his rear end off tomorrow, especially given that Ward can't blame post or anything else as he is locked and loaded from that area, there is a ton of speed so getting hung wide isn't going to happen. THEN I can unload against him when Ward tries to get tricky and ship him West off only a 30 day layoff and a huge effort