The drugged racehorse

[paisjpq]

each and every one of your arguments has huge holes in it...

one person already pointed out that a partnership horse may take extraordinary amounts of unwarrented money...look at any west point runner if you don't believe me.

horses have personalities and attitudes like any other creature...they may be on their toes one day and dull as a post the next...it does not mean that they have been drugged...the only way that there might be any validation for this argument is if you are able to observe said horse on a daily basis to then note a sudden change in behavior...but even that is not going to be reliable because something as small as temperature and humidity changes can have a dramatic effect on a horse.

a sudden change of form often looks suspucious and if coupled with a new barn might be a valid case for drugging...but also could be due to better care...or time off...or the horse rounding into form...etc etc.

A switch to a better jock is more often a lucky break on a triners part than anything else...do you honestly think that a trainer is going to call a top jocks's agent and tell him that he has a 'sure thing' horse for the guy to ride...all but admitting that the horse will be on an illegal substance? please.

I'm not trying to deny that there are unscrupulous trainers and owners in this game but your method for 'uncovering' drugged horse in a race is not what i would call sound logic.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

each and every one of your arguments has huge holes in it...

one person already pointed out that a partnership horse may take extraordinary amounts of unwarrented money...look at any west point runner if you don't believe me.

horses have personalities and attitudes like any other creature...they may be on their toes one day and dull as a post the next...it does not mean that they have been drugged...the only way that there might be any validation for this argument is if you are able to observe said horse on a daily basis to then note a sudden change in behavior...but even that is not going to be reliable because something as small as temperature and humidity changes can have a dramatic effect on a horse.

a sudden change of form often looks suspucious and if coupled with a new barn might be a valid case for drugging...but also could be due to better care...or time off...or the horse rounding into form...etc etc.

A switch to a better jock is more often a lucky break on a triners part than anything else...do you honestly think that a trainer is going to call a top jocks's agent and tell him that he has a 'sure thing' horse for the guy to ride...all but admitting that the horse will be on an illegal substance? please.

I'm not trying to deny that there are unscrupulous trainers and owners in this game but your method for 'uncovering' drugged horse in a race is not what i would call sound logic.

The problem with your argument is you are picking on one point at a time. One of the variables alone isn't enough evidence. But what about when all the variables come into play? Of course its not a guarantee but it could be a red flag. I'm not so sure I agree on your point about the trainers and jock agents. Would the trainer come right out and say they were going to juice? I doubt it, but he probably tells the agent he "really likes so and so", even though the horse's form is only modest.

As bettors, we all love to believe that every race is won by a big overlay when in fact, that isn't the case at all. Live horses win more than their fair share of races.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by JJP

The problem with your argument is you are picking on one point at a time. One of the variables alone isn't enough evidence. But what about when all the variables come into play? Of course its not a guarantee but it could be a red flag. I'm not so sure I agree on your point about the trainers and jock agents. Would the trainer come right out and say they were going to juice? I doubt it, but he probably tells the agent he "really likes so and so", even though the horse's form is only modest.

As bettors, we all love to believe that every race is won by a big overlay when in fact, that isn't the case at all. Live horses win more than their fair share of races.

Actually, Beth is pretty spot on with her analysis.