kip devile 9/2 vs. showing up 6/1

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I like Showing Up as a horse, and I think he will do very well in next year's Met Mile, but I am dubious of his chances against top competition at any distance over a mile.

As for accepting based on opinions of his connections that he will excel on the grass, I'm strongly in Mike's corner, as working on the grass and racing on it are two totally different things. I will happily bet against him at what will probably be very underlaid odds this weekend based on reputation. He will beat me first time on the grass, especially at 1 3/16ths, as horses like Showing Up dramatically underperform their odds in these types of situations.

The funny thing is that in my heart I will probably be rooting for him but making money in this game is not about rooting with your heart. Showing Up is a bad bet in this race at any odds under 6-1 and probably at odds under 10-1.

Doesn't make a damn bit of difference what his odds are... you either like him to win or you don't. If he was 30-1, would you like him to win? LOL

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Doesn't make a damn bit of difference what his odds are... you either like him to win or you don't. If he was 30-1, would you like him to win? LOL

I couldn't disagree more. Making money betting horses depends very strongly on how accurate is your assessment of any horse's chances. If you only bet horses whose odds were higher than their chances of winning you would be a huge winner in this game.

The simple fact is that Showing Up's odds will not reflect his chances of winning. Not even close.

If he was 30-1 I would make a huge win bet on him. His chances of winning are certainly greater than 3.33%. What I don't believe is that they are substantially greater than 10%.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I couldn't disagree more. Making money betting horses depends very strongly on how accurate is your assessment of any horse's chances. If you only bet horses whose odds were higher than their chances of winning you would be a huge winner in this game.

The simple fact is that Showing Up's odds will not reflect his chances of winning. Not even close.

If he was 30-1 I would make a huge win bet on him. His chances of winning are certainly greater than 3.33%. What I don't believe is that they are substantially greater than 10%.

I guess the difference in the way I see it is that I don't look at odds in the same way. I look at the chart and sheets myself and pick who I think is the winner and not who the majority thinks... if he was 91-1 and I thought he would win, I would bet him and the same would go if he was 2-1. I think that if you like a horse to win, you should bet him to win no matter what his odds are. JMO.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I guess the difference in the way I see it is that I don't look at odds in the same way. I look at the chart and sheets myself and pick who I think is the winner and not who the majority thinks... if he was 91-1 and I thought he would win, I would bet him and the same would go if he was 2-1. I think that if you like a horse to win, you should bet him to win no matter what his odds are. JMO.

This is simply a losing strategy.

First, and most simply, if you liked a 91-1 shot as much as a 2-1 shot you should bet a minimum of ten times as much on the 91-1 shot.

If you're rooting, and not betting, fine...odds are irrelevent. But, if you're betting, the odds are of paramount importance.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is simply a losing strategy.

First, and most simply, if you liked a 91-1 shot as much as a 2-1 shot you should bet a minimum of ten times as much on the 91-1 shot.

If you're rooting, and not betting, fine...odds are irrelevent. But, if you're betting, the odds are of paramount importance.

I agree. I just won't make a big bet on short priced horses. There is no return on investment. What is the point of risking 1K to make $800 on a 4-5 shot. You need to win more than 50% of the time.