CONTEST ENTRIES: SA Carryover

[Gander]

I cant imagine many people who play horses have $2,000 to spend on a pick 6ticket. Maybe if they got together with 10 other people but considering I didnt have the form and it was mid-week, there was no way I was going to take the Santa Anita carryover seriously. Perhaps if it was Aqueduct I would have made an exception but those races are just too hard out there. Pauls Hope was a very hard horse to come up with but certainly not impossible if that was a race you went 5 or 6 deep in.

I wouldnt diss the idea of writing down numbers, there was a guy I went to high school with who played a random sequence of mailbox numbers on one $2pick 6 ticket and won the whole pool (85 grand). It was at Saratoga and one of the horses who won that day was Poughkepsie Gypsie.

[SniperSB23]

Looking back at what I did I made a huge error in evaluating Antifreezette as my single and then putting two other horses in as B choices in that race. By doing that I offset the purpose of singling the horse and wasted almost 2/3rds of my budget in the process. I still wouldn't have hit but would have at least had 4 out of 6. So the important lesson I take out of this is that if you want to single a horse using the A/B/C method you don't just single him as an A, you have to also use no one as a B. That is why I enjoy doing things like this with fake money.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Looking back at what I did I made a huge error in evaluating Antifreezette as my single and then putting two other horses in as B choices in that race. By doing that I offset the purpose of singling the horse and wasted almost 2/3rds of my budget in the process. I still wouldn't have hit but would have at least had 4 out of 6. So the important lesson I take out of this is that if you want to single a horse using the A/B/C method you don't just single him as an A, you have to also use no one as a B. That is why I enjoy doing things like this with fake money.

Wise words, my friend, wise words. I can see you got something out of this contest, which was the whole purpose of it as far as I'm concerned. The A/B/C method really stratifies your opinions better because let's say you did like 2 others in there just a little bit, you could use them as a C and maybe have 10% of your capital on them, still emphasizing your key single but just in case you have the best day of your life otherwise you have a little extra coverage there.

Now you can see why I want to put my head through a window when a horse like Appealing Zophie busts me out of a huge P6. Certainly logical but you gotta make a stand somewhere (unless you have an unlimited bankroll), sadly my strongest opinion that day was the one that cost me.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Wise words, my friend, wise words. I can see you got something out of this contest, which was the whole purpose of it as far as I'm concerned. The A/B/C method really stratifies your opinions better because let's say you did like 2 others in there just a little bit, you could use them as a C and maybe have 10% of your capital on them, still emphasizing your key single but just in case you have the best day of your life otherwise you have a little extra coverage there.

Now you can see why I want to put my head through a window when a horse like Appealing Zophie busts me out of a huge P6. Certainly logical but you gotta make a stand somewhere (unless you have an unlimited bankroll), sadly my strongest opinion that day was the one that cost me.

Yeah, definitely. Just by moving those two horses down from B in the 6th would have brought three horses up to my B list of which two were the winners of the last two legs. It also would have allowed me to go all in the 4th and 7th races for the C list and add Paul's Hope in the 5th along with one or two others. I still would have only had 1 A, 3 Bs, and 2 Cs win but it would have been a lot more effective use of the ticket than the $1400 I wasted on tickets using those two horses as B's in the 6th. I hope we do another one of these contests even if there aren't prizes associated. It can definitely be a learning experience.

[Gander]

I can totally understand you not wanting to dedicate time to this, really, but by the same token doesn't that then lessen the value of your post-Pick-6 judgements?

Absolutely. I wont respond to pick 6 talk anymore unless I play one. I have only been close to hitting 1 significant pick 6 in my life and that one didnt work out.

Now you can see why I want to put my head through a window when a horse like Appealing Zophie busts me out of a huge P6. Certainly logical but you gotta make a stand somewhere (unless you have an unlimited bankroll), sadly my strongest opinion that day was the one that cost me.

Last weekend of the meet last year at Toga if I am not mistaken. This was the horse Oracle was very high on and got a lot of people on. I was already invested in pick 4's and did not use Zophie either so I can understand how you feel. I knew this horse would be trouble when it opened up taking loads of money.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Gander

I can totally understand you not wanting to dedicate time to this, really, but by the same token doesn't that then lessen the value of your post-Pick-6 judgements?

Absolutely. I wont respond to pick 6 talk anymore unless I play one. I have only been close to hitting 1 significant pick 6 in my life and that one didnt work out.

Now you can see why I want to put my head through a window when a horse like Appealing Zophie busts me out of a huge P6. Certainly logical but you gotta make a stand somewhere (unless you have an unlimited bankroll), sadly my strongest opinion that day was the one that cost me.

Last weekend of the meet last year at Toga if I am not mistaken. This was the horse Oracle was very high on and got a lot of people on. I was already invested in pick 4's and did not use Zophie either so I can understand how you feel. I knew this horse would be trouble when it opened up taking loads of money.

That was it... knew I just needed to get through that leg and had decent coverage in the last. Paid $65k with Appealing Zophie, no less than half that with the 2 I had (2nd and 3rd finishers).
At least it wasn't close.

[Gander]

I remember having a good day that particular day because I hit Hither Lane earlier in the card. But I dumped some money back on a Smoke Glacken horse Chantal Sutherland rode in the very last race. She gave that horse a dreadful ride and made a very premature wide move on the far turn.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Gander

I cant imagine many people who play horses have $2,000 to spend on a pick 6ticket. Maybe if they got together with 10 other people but considering I didnt have the form and it was mid-week, there was no way I was going to take the Santa Anita carryover seriously. Perhaps if it was Aqueduct I would have made an exception but those races are just too hard out there. Pauls Hope was a very hard horse to come up with but certainly not impossible if that was a race you went 5 or 6 deep in.

I'm sure there were many individuals and/or syndicates that put in over $2K into yesterday's Pick-6 ( more than 250 certainly ) but yesterday's contest gave people a chance to see how they could do under those circumstances. It feels like a lot of people here took it seriously and their results bore that out.

I can totally understand you not wanting to dedicate time to this, really, but by the same token doesn't that then lessen the value of your post-Pick-6 judgements?