CONTEST ENTRIES: SA Carryover

[JudyGold]

Top handicapper at SA James Quinn put this ticket together

a b
3. 12 7-5-9

4. 6-12 2-4

5.4-12-7-11

6.7-1 4-8

7.7-8-1 9

8.11-12 13-14

a ticket by itself $192 2 winners
full ticket a+b 8192 for 3 winners

Paul's Hope...

I picked him up going deep in that leg. What stuck out the most to me were a few things (even though I thought others would actually win the race):

Obviously, Espinoza taking the mount makes me think the horse is going to be live. He was dropping from 75K MCL down to 32K MCL (nice drop, actually biggest drop in the field). Also, this horse seemed to be fit because of his progression of works and, more importantly, his 3f work just 3 days before the race. Normally I don't pay much attention to 3f works unless they are sub :36. This one happened to be :35 which tells me, if nothing else, this horse is probably more fit than he's ever been. Again, combine that with Espinoza taking the mount and the class drop seems legit.

Regarding being beaten by a football field. I thought the trainer knew the horse wasn't "in" that last race. Anytime I see a horse coming back from a layoff their last race (which, this one was) and see the lengths back increase so drastically from stretch to the wire, I give the benefit of the doubt to that race being a "work." It was a route, you make the horse run more than he naturally wants to go for some good competitive exercise. Give him a week or two off and let him swell up like a rockstar, bring him back for a sharp 3f work to get his mind on racing....and Boom!! Tough Actin Tinactin.

Anybody know if he was claimed??

[Sightseek]

Thank you to the people who posted what they saw in Paul's Hope.

Paul's Hope was not claimed, but Wage a Kiss and Ringmaster were.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The biggest obstacle in playing Paul's Hope was simply being able to play a horse trained by Hector Palma.Best I can tell,Palma won 1 maiden claiming race in 47 attempts in 2006-2007(2%.)People can b.s. all they want,but this would of had to be a spread race for you(and you would have to include him in a spread.)Talking endlessly (about this rat) is the punishment deemed upon us by one Corey Nakatani.His horse broke great ,but he took back,and Espinoza said thank you,thank you,and set a comfortable 22'1,and a 45'3(as Gryder's horse collapses while keeping Nakatani down inside.) Corey is just not riding with confidence,and Espinoza is.I have no doubt that if you swap riders,Peace Accord presses that horse,and draws off.Nakatani is giving a workman-like 90% effort out there,and when somebody is riding well,you will have trouble running them down(if you wait while they coast on 22'1 ,45'3.)If somebody else gets this mount,you will see this.The horse will either press,or make a big middle move.The new rider will not wait until the stretch to move(while somebody else has fun coasting up front.)

[Gander]

Thank you to the people who posted what they saw in Paul's Hope.

With all due respect its easy to analyze a race after its over. There are very few horses that win that you cant write an essay of why you could have used him or her after the fact. Pretty much useless info now unless you have a working time machine.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

GANDER,I want to know how(on a $100 ticket)Barry Abrams got to the final leg with that Highly Gallant's effort determining whether he gets 97k.That's what I want to know.If he zigs instead of zags,then the man has 405k for $100.

It's easier after the fact for sure, but I wouldn't take away from the due diligence put in by those that came up with that horse in their tickets... I mean, the selections are out there for all to see... nobody singled him as far as I know. I included him with 4 others because I thought he was live. And, as BTW said, one of the keys to play multi-race wagers is figuring out where you have definite opinions of how a race will turn out and also figuring out where you will do well just to survive. IMO, this was one of the latter.

For those that wanted the rationale behind selecting Paul's Hope, they got it....there were many reasons to not take the horse but I felt the reasons to include him were compelling enough.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Gander

Thank you to the people who posted what they saw in Paul's Hope.

With all due respect its easy to analyze a race after its over. There are very few horses that win that you cant write an essay of why you could have used him or her after the fact. Pretty much useless info now unless you have a working time machine.

Maybe so, but it is always helpful when you are trying to learn to hear and/or read from as many people as possible. We're all going to view things differently and if someone brings up a point that I had missed, I'll try to keep that in my mind when handicapping in the future.