CONTEST ENTRIES: SA Carryover

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Sound advice. There are races that defy handicapping. I think you're right. You have to recognize what each race offers. Is it a race that you can get a read on and hence form a somewhat confident opinion, or is it a race that you more or less have to buy your way past.

This is true.I had no real clue who was gunna win the 3rd,4th,or 7th,but had a pretty good feel for the 5th,6th,and 8th.

[docicu3]

Again Scuds I should have talked to you about the 6TH as I had Place and Show horses but screwed up missing the route to sprint angle. Did you like the 8??

Next carry we exchange thoughts before the P6.....this 5 of 6 the last two big SA carry's is nice but it's alot like spending all day at the track and going home even......it's better than tanking but not by alot...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Again Scuds I should have talked to you about the 6TH as I had Place and Show horses but screwed up missing the route to sprint angle. Did you like the 8??

Next carry we exchange thoughts before the P6.....this 5 of 6 the last two big SA carry's is nice but it's alot like spending all day at the track and going home even......it's better than tanking but not by alot...

O.K.,I think I have put this together now.You are actually talking about the 5th race.Well,I can't get that f'n Palma Horse(Paul's Hope.) The only way I could get it was to go wide in there. I went wide in the 3rd,4th,and 7th.So,if you(or myself)want to get that horse,then we would have to go lean in a race we didn't go lean in today,and go wide in the 5th.I think that the 5th should of been won by Nakatanl's horse,but he is out of the groove at the moment,and Espinoza was in the groove today.Therefore,Corey got beat.I think the horse will come right back and win(with a better ride.....much like T. Montana won by getting a better ride today.)I think you want to know angles to get Paul's Hope.I only see 2.

1)Espinoza gave the winner of the 1st a good inspired ride....You could lean on that.

2)I think Paul's Hope was dropping in class (a bit.)When they finish a football field behind,I am not that big on the route to sprint angle.

[docicu3]

Your right it was the 5TH.....sorry I am so pissed I can't even count!!!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Your right it was the 5TH.....sorry I am so pissed I can't even count!!!

Actually,a 3rd angle ........I think that the sire of Paul's Hope is a decent win early-speed type.I don't know that much about him,but I like the speed I have seen from his horses.

[JudyGold]

Top handicapper at SA James Quinn put this ticket together

a b
3. 12 7-5-9

4. 6-12 2-4

5.4-12-7-11

6.7-1 4-8

7.7-8-1 9

8.11-12 13-14

a ticket by itself $192 2 winners
full ticket a+b 8192 for 3 winners

Paul's Hope...

I picked him up going deep in that leg. What stuck out the most to me were a few things (even though I thought others would actually win the race):

Obviously, Espinoza taking the mount makes me think the horse is going to be live. He was dropping from 75K MCL down to 32K MCL (nice drop, actually biggest drop in the field). Also, this horse seemed to be fit because of his progression of works and, more importantly, his 3f work just 3 days before the race. Normally I don't pay much attention to 3f works unless they are sub :36. This one happened to be :35 which tells me, if nothing else, this horse is probably more fit than he's ever been. Again, combine that with Espinoza taking the mount and the class drop seems legit.

Regarding being beaten by a football field. I thought the trainer knew the horse wasn't "in" that last race. Anytime I see a horse coming back from a layoff their last race (which, this one was) and see the lengths back increase so drastically from stretch to the wire, I give the benefit of the doubt to that race being a "work." It was a route, you make the horse run more than he naturally wants to go for some good competitive exercise. Give him a week or two off and let him swell up like a rockstar, bring him back for a sharp 3f work to get his mind on racing....and Boom!! Tough Actin Tinactin.

Anybody know if he was claimed??