CONTEST/SYMPOSIUM: SA Carryover

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, a lot of it depends on how much money you are willing to invest. From there you figure out the cost difference in each race for elevating a horse from one list to another.

One thing to keep in mind is " value ". How much money does it make financial sense, from a value standpoint, to invest in a sequence that involves two 25-1 shots? For instance, suppose ( to keep it simple ), you were going to have a 25-1 shot as an A in both the first and second leg. Thus you would have a huge number of tickets generated off those two horses. Well, a $2 parlay on those two horses pays $1300. Can you honestly justify having even $48 worth of play off that combo? How about $128? There is something to be said for never including a Pick-6 combination where the parlay is over the total pool. Now, obviously things change in substantial carryovers, and the bigger your ticket the greater your scope, but there are a great deal of questions one needs to ask themself when seriously constructing tickets. Your ability to understand the answers to these things will ultimately simplify the decisions about which list to place horses on.

To repeat something I just said to Sightseek, Picking winners, or surviving races through selections is not that hard, but finding a way to get all the winners on one ticket is the hard part.

[AeWingnut]

heard that someone invested $20k in a pick 6 and got back $18k and they were lucky to get back the $18k cause there were a lot of favorites.

As a rule I don't play a pick 6 unless I can find three singles. sadly I have never been able to find three singles

BTW - Question. I often find myself wasting money in a race where I have no real opinion on any of the horses. This typically happens in small fields (8 or less). My current approach is to go as deep as possible (making it fit in my budget) or taking a stand and picking a logical single. Is this a correct approach?

[blackthroatedwind]

Theoretically every decision you make is related to every race, as if you assume you are investing a finite amount of money, every horse you use is at the exclusion of another horse somewhere on the ticket. Thus, if you find a particularly puzzling race, you will obviously want to use as many entrants as possible, and thus have to figure out how to work that into your play.

On a simplistic level, suppose the race we are discussing has 8 horses, and let's also suppose there is another race where you are undecided about using 2 or 3 horses. Well, you can use all 8 and 2 in the other race for less than 7% more money than 5 and 3 in the other. Thus, you face a choice, and this may be one of the ones that decide whether or not you win.

Obviously that is an oversimplification, as there are six possible legs, but I just use it as an example. With multiple tickets, As - Bs - Cs, you can find ways to use many in a race while minimizing your investment.

[docicu3]

Steve and Andy I don't know how else to stimulate race discussion than to start threads for each race and then I'll post a ticket tomorrow AM. If I am in the wrong place for this I apologize......

Assuming PP's are actual numbers....

# 9 Mog First, anybody using Brisnet PP's there is an error where the first time out trip for Mog is missing from the PP's. The race (R8 3/3/06 @ SA) is somewhat relavant because A) He ran a (9) on Thorograph which is the best number for any horse in the race B) It's a sprint at Santa Anita a year ago.
I am not a William the 3RD jock fan but he is okay on a closer and will likely try the same strategy here with a race that 5,6,7,12 will likely come to the front.
SA workouts and the drop in class seal the deal. My Pick....

# 12 The Cat Did It Is getting major press with DRF Mr Free suggesting him as a single because he lost a stretch duel from the 3 hole but actually finished 6TH.
I think the same thing happens again with #10 Mog and perhaps #11 Ikuna Red. I think you have to use Cat in the PICK 6 but I won't single.

#3 Blazen Bunny Good speed numbers but too long between races. I can see ITM but needs a race IMO

#7 Heatherdoesn'tBluff Nice turf numbers but never has been on dirt so who knows how she'll really do here though Sire (Old Trieste) seems to imply decent dirt potential. The TGH sire info seems also to suggest a late maturing horse........the wild card in the race and may be my 3RD choice

So on this one 9-12 for sure......may use the 7 Thoughts folks????

[docicu3]

Another field with many contenders that "could" challenge the favorite Red Opal. I may use 4 because I think they are all legit.....

#12 Udridge A number of things seem to work in her favor for this lightly raced 5 year old who has won at a higher level recently, drew well on the outside, seems to be able to win in front or off the pace,has a nice bullet last workout, gets Migliore on Turf who seems to win on everything he touches the last week or so. Nice Thorograph pattern competitive with Red Opal......must use!!!!

#6 Red Opal Will get plenty of action for good reason. Best closer,TGH numbers there, Sadler,Gomez,workouts all here. For sure.....

#2 Mashina Intriquing play.......Obviously will try and steal this one by converting this 5 for 17 lifetime turf route specialist on Nakatani. The PP's seem to imply the horse is money for the first 6F's of every Turf route.....can he steal this. Sire: Vettori has very small but excellent improvement TGI for 5 year olds.....I am using her...

#5 Kendricks Patsy Steve Miyadi sends in scary closing monster with late numbers almost the same as Red Opal. Another trainer who's white hot using an under the radar turf route specialist from Northern California in a turf sprint. Kaenel has never ridden this horse or a single race at SA. I wonder whats up here????? Trainer has lots of new friends winning at 32% I think I'll use rather than weep!!!

Pick 6 play 2,5,6,12

12,2,6,5 Box(Tri)
12/6,2,5/6,2,5/all (super)

Two more races this afternoon.....the last two tonight!!!

I would love to hear from any of you should you see major flaws in thought process.

Ticket so far 7,9,12/2,5,6,12.........Race 5 MC 32K for 3 year olds

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Another field with many contenders that "could" challenge the favorite Red Opal. I may use 4 because I think they are all legit.....

#12 Udridge A number of things seem to work in her favor for this lightly raced 5 year old who has won at a higher level recently, drew well on the outside, seems to be able to win in front or off the pace,has a nice bullet last workout, gets Migliore on Turf who seems to win on everything he touches the last week or so. Nice Thorograph pattern competitive with Red Opal......must use!!!!

#6 Red Opal Will get plenty of action for good reason. Best closer,TGH numbers there, Sadler,Gomez,workouts all here. For sure.....

#2 Mashina Intriquing play.......Obviously will try and steal this one by converting this 5 for 17 lifetime turf route specialist on Nakatani. The PP's seem to imply the horse is money for the first 6F's of every Turf route.....can he steal this. Sire: Vettori has very small but excellent improvement TGI for 5 year olds.....I am using her...

#5 Kendricks Patsy Steve Miyadi sends in scary closing monster with late numbers almost the same as Red Opal. Another trainer who's white hot using an under the radar turf route specialist from Northern California in a turf sprint. Kaenel has never ridden this horse or a single race at SA. I wonder whats up here????? Trainer has lots of new friends winning at 32% I think I'll use rather than weep!!!

Pick 6 play 2,5,6,12

12,2,6,5 Box(Tri)
12/6,2,5/6,2,5/all (super)

Two more races this afternoon.....the last two tonight!!!

I would love to hear from any of you should you see major flaws in thought process.

Ticket so far 7,9,12/2,5,6,12.........Race 5 MC 32K for 3 year olds

I've had Red Opal on my watch list for a long time and am happy to see her returning. Looks like enough speed to close into, and I think she's the obvious pick.
Mashina cuts back from routes to a sprint. First time down the hill doesn't worry me with Cory aboard, and love the fact that he's 2 for 2 when riding this mare. Will be a factor as long as he doesn't try to dual with Udriga for the lead. Speaking of the 12, my only worry is the 6 week gap in works between Nov. 22nd and Jan 5th. Not sure if the horse is fit enough to take them wire to wire, which is what she'll have to do to win. Both Moogie and Evening Escort have some things to like, but I can't go more than 3 deep here, and may just use Red Opal and Mashina, leaving my pick 6 fate in the hands of Nakatani and Gomez.

[ceejay]

With a $2500 budget you don't need a single. Use multiple tickets. For example the Barry Meadow method 2x3x6x6x6x6 requiring 3 A choices-- any 3-- to win would cost $2452 on 42 tickets.