A Bit About Track Bias (Dirt)

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually I believe the poster who tells serious horseplayers, and there are some here, that he made almost $20 for every $1 bet in 2006 is actually mocking us.

Actually, I think BBB made that statement on a thread I started about what it takes to make a living gambling on horses. When you crunch the numbers, as many have done following BBB's statement, it does seem outlandish, but I don't feel mocked, especially (and I do consider myself a serious, albeit amateur, horseplayer).

Wait a second, are you mocking me for making a mocking comment about mocking comments?

Da Hoss I wrote an essay a few days before the Breeders Cup essentially saying that Butch would have a hard time keeping the rail from being the place to be, but could not locate it as it was under someone elses thread. With that said, I do not think the percieved rail bias was anything more than; it is always good to save ground. Ragozin has an excellent assessment on his bulletin board.

BTR I do have an agenda. I post my pick 4's with the idea of getting newer cappers interested in "investing" $20 -$30 a week with the goal of hitting a pick 4 paying fifty, sixty or even one hundred times their bet! Additionally I try to learn all I can. Even though I am in the top 1 or 2% in handicapping acumen (as are a few others, this forum) I am shocked at what I do not know! Some swindle!

You wrote "that one thing I know for sure is that no one can play a miniscule ticket once a week and be a consistent winner" indicates to me that YOU cannot be a consistent winner. Several members this forum play a pick 4 once a week and over the long haul win. I have asked them to keep their ROI for just those bets.

I am not into country club camraderie and try not to post unless I have something to say, or a ticket to post. I usually post my Sunday ticket on the forum where the race is being run, sorry if that disturbs you. In the interest of full disclosure I expect if I get time, I will post a ticket here tommorrow, and like my chances. I have played three pick 4's in 2007; a $12 bet that returned $1900, a $24 miss and a $36 miss. They are at www.nola.com/forums/startinggate #'s 7629 and 7659 and this forum #8700 I have never seen a before the race prediction from you and can only conclude you are a monday morning quarterback.

STS: I buy charts in bulk and find most handicappers have the same data! I am finding good value in Beyer par times taken from the past performances. For instance most winners run a good number for the class... but of the horses they beat, how many had run par? How recently? etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

Are you saying I'm a " Monday morning quarterback ".

I hope not. That would be even funnier than the rest of your silliness.