What's the latest on the $16M dollar Monkey?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

ha! i'd almost be tempted to take a shot on Anna, but not with any significant amount of money -- and it would just be a homer bet, not a realistic deduction from handicapping.

i just find it insane that the undefeated and untested 2YO filly champion is a longer shot than an overpriced horse who has never started and is currently relaxing on a farm somewhere.

Really should be 5000-1 !

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Really should be 5000-1 !

Who? Anna or the Monkey? I hope you mean the Monkey.

If I had bigger pockets I'd be betting Anna in future wagers -- but I won't get to Vegas, and will have a hard time getting someone to take action on her for $20

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Who? Anna or the Monkey? I hope you mean the Monkey.

If I had bigger pockets I'd be betting Anna in future wagers -- but I won't get to Vegas, and will have a hard time getting someone to take action on her for $20

send me the $20

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

send me the $20

In "play" money so the Bykster does not run afoul of the authorities

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

In "play" money so the Bykster does not run afoul of the authorities

Right! I just think that if she has a productive Spring, she's got the kind of connections that would throw her into the mix in the Derby instead of the Oaks. Calabrese is one gutsy dude, and even if she could hit the board in the Derby her residual value would skyrocket, wouldn't you think? Once she's in the gate for the Derby, anything can happen. That'd be worth a wager for me.

However, I wouldn't wager on the Monkey with m worst enemy's money right now -- it's simply impossible.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Right! I just think that if she has a productive Spring, she's got the kind of connections that would throw her into the mix in the Derby instead of the Oaks. Calabrese is one gutsy dude, and even if she could hit the board in the Derby her residual value would skyrocket, wouldn't you think? Once she's in the gate for the Derby, anything can happen. That'd be worth a wager for me.

However, I wouldn't wager on the Monkey with m worst enemy's money right now -- it's simply impossible.

I dont think that hitting the board in the Derby would raise her value that much. Winning the Derby would be another matter but I cant see that happening.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont think that hitting the board in the Derby would raise her value that much. Winning the Derby would be another matter but I cant see that happening.

Obviously, it's a longshot -- but I see it this way. If she goes to the Derby, it means that she's likely done pretty well this Spring...on dirt. They aren't going to throw her in there off of huge losses just because they can based on her Juvenile Fillies earnings.

With that said, she gets in the gate, it's because she's racing well. At that point, her odds will be far below 100-1 if she has been running well enough to get her connections to take her in the first place. If she's been running that well, I would likely have a saver/homer bet on her in the Derby anyway, so why wouldn't I take 100-1 when it's at least twice as much as I'd get on her in the Derby?

It's just like taking 100-1 that she's going to have a good Spring.

My logic may be atrocious in this case, but it certainly makes sense in my head.