Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Friday

Race 3. #2 Program Trading 8/5. I know the price here is short but I just don't see any way that Program Trading loses this one. I suppose you could make the case that Northern Invader wires the field but he should get some pace pressure from Donegal Momentum and possibly Major Dude (who has generally been more involved in the pace under Johnny V). I wanted to make a case for General Jim at 10/1 to sit the perfect trip behind the speed horses and I'd still love to see that for Shug and Carmouche but I can't ignore that Program Trading has a class edge and pace advantage and owns the best figures in the race. I'm skeptical he'll be 8/5 but note Donegal Momentum does draw Irad aboard which should intrigue bettors enough to keep Program Trading above even money.


Race 11. #7 Les Reys 8/1. A lot of people liked this horse last out so I'm unsure if she'll be 8/1 or not. Morning line favorite #5 Dynamic Pricing is sure to draw a lot of money but I don't want to bet her at a short price. Yes, she's got a Grade 1 win at the distance on her resume but that race was on a yielding turf course and I don't want to put too much weight into it. There are simply too many interesting faces in this race for me to bet Dynamic Pricing at 8/5. I'm intrigued by a few horses in this race, including the #9 Ribaltagaia 8/1, #4 A Lilac Rolla 8/1, and #6 Proctor Street 7/2 and I think you simply can't single Dynamic Pricing in multis in this race (and in fact, I will totally toss her from my multis and use the 4, 7, and 9 in hopes of landing a big price here). I want to give Les Reys a shot. She ran OK in her first race off the layoff, finishing a length behind Deep Satin (2nd in G2 Ballston Spa next out) and a 1/2 length behind Heredia (1st in G2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap next out). I'd expect her to move forward in her 2nd race off the layoff. She's already got a win over Dynamic Pricing last year and I think her ability to comfortably split horses gives her an advantage, which should allow Rosario to work out a good trip for her.

The kiss of death here saying I didn’t see how Program Trading could lose. Paid $2.10 to place. I missed Race 11 but doesn’t look like Les Reys was anywhere close.

$320.00 wagered
$352.50 returned

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 6 #7 Souper Caliber 8/1 - Thought this horse ran incredibly well despite not liking the turf at all imo. Bred for the dirt and I know Casse has no problem starting one on a surface he doesn’t necessarily prefer. That should’ve been a perfect tightener to get him ready to fire a big shot cutting back slightly on the preferred surface today imo

[theguarantee]

Best Value: Race 11 #5 Percy’s Bar 6/1 - like the way this one is developing. Tommy Jo looks very formidable but think Percy will run a big one

[moses]

Bellezza was much the best, paying $7.50 to win and $5.10 to place. Irish Gent could not hold off his stablemate but was able to hold on for place, paying $10.80. I should have had a much better day than I had today but somehow ended up down a little.


$328.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Hoping to finish off the meet strong. See above for the explanation for my picks for tomorrow.

Race 5. #5 White Abarrio 8/1.
Race 10. #9 Big Invasion 5/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 14 #7 Blame It On KJ 10/1 - Feel obligated to take another shot today after I liked in the off the turf race a couple weeks back. That was some trip in there and I think the stretchout definitely helped, now gets back to turf and should be tighter, has to still move quite a bit forward to be competitive here I know.

Best Value: Race 10 #10 Step Forward 12/1 - I think you can draw a line through the G2 attempt down the hill that completed his 5 year old season...with the lengthy layoff the June effort felt like a prep and he's moved forward exactly as you'd have hoped since that, narrowly missing in a couple spots...when you do that I think he's the most consistent runner in the field...Big Invasion and Dancing Buck are both coming off layoffs, if either of them run their A race he probably isn't good enough but I don't totally buy that last effort from Twenty Six Black...I would argue he's about as likely as anyone in here and figures to be one of the better prices, although obviously with the scratches 12/1 is no longer going to happen.

Good Luck

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Bellezza was much the best, paying $7.50 to win and $5.10 to place. Irish Gent could not hold off his stablemate but was able to hold on for place, paying $10.80. I should have had a much better day than I had today but somehow ended up down a little.


$328.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Hoping to finish off the meet strong. See above for the explanation for my picks for tomorrow.

Race 5. #5 White Abarrio 8/1.
Race 10. #9 Big Invasion 5/1

Terrible today.

$336.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #2 Grunge 6/1. I like the workouts on this horse and think some of the others in here will be overbet. I know everyone hates Carmouche right now but think he steals this one.

Race 10. #10 Versus 12/1. The figures fit for this longshot and should get pace to run into. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, major rider upgrade.

[theguarantee]

Best Value: Race 11 #6 Cleopatra's Key 12/1 - Some may view the improvement second out as the move to dirt but the debut effort had several excuses and I think the improvement had more to do with experience. Now, 3rd out she should be ready to fire a big effort as she's bred for the turf - it remains to be seen really how good she is but today is the day to find out.

Best Bet: Race 10 #3 Stars and Strides 9/2 - I guess last time was the time but I just think he's really good and hope the bettors go over the top for Asbury Park one more time as I'm not a big fan of his for better or worse. I tried to talk myself into a few of the longshots but ultimately I think Stars and Strides is probably the best horse in here and should sit the best trip behind a decent pace but with less to do than the main challenger.

[moses]

Neither Grunge nor Versus was good enough. Two misses to end the meet but it was a very good meet for me overall. I hit a good number of longshots, some nice doubles, and a $2700 Pick 5 to ensure I was positive for the meet overall.

$344.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Not bad. Hope everyone had some memorable winners over the last couple months.