Two at Toga (2025)

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 11 - #1 Practiical Lov 3/1 - think the last was legit as it comes and think she’s ready for even better today. Competitive race so think this morning line should more or less hold.

Best Value: Race 10 #2 Rebels Red 8/1 - I am a glutton for punishment constantly trying to beat Far Bridge but I do think that last race was a phony after all the scratches. Looks like a lot of people are landing on El Rezeen in here. I tried to beat Far Bridge with him last out and really after all the scratches he had no shot and ran OK, but he was never really getting to Far Bridge who was under wraps…should set up a lot better today and maybe I’ll put him right in the winners circle jumping off…I don’t love either of the Appleby runners though they’d hardly surprise. I think this is a perfect spot to try to get Rebel Red at a decent price against a field I’m not overwhelmed with. Given the one eye it’s no surprise that you never really know what you’re going to get but I think he can finish with these if Irad can work a trip.

I did look at Colonial today and I’m pretty excited to bet Isivungu another shot in the 8th. I think the form this year is completely muddied up with the trip to Dubai and today is absolutely the day to get the money. It’s a tough field but I’ll be shocked if he isn’t poised for an A effort today and the price should be right. In the Secretariat I also want to give Giacoso a shot. He was pretty good as a two year old but has some excuses in his last few.

Good luck

[moses]

I ended up staying home with my two youngest while my wife is out with my two oldest. So I’ve gotten to watch all my horses get beat in real time today.

Common Defense was wide throughout and got beat by a horse I wouldn’t have ended up on in multis without hitting the ALL button, ultimately finishing third.

The pace didn’t really develop the way I hoped in race 7. I thought Maragh gave this horse a great ride and I hope anyone betting trifectas and superfectas included him as he got up for third at 13/1.

$208.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

[moses]

For today, going to change my picks a bit.

I’ll stick with #10 Turn and Count in Race 10 as one of the picks but I don’t think I can bet against Governor Sam in the Mahony, plus Gabaldon is a gulfstream speed horse and I just don’t generally bet those horses.

Instead, I’m going to land on #3 Fun to Tap, 7/2 in the opener. The expectations for this horse have always been high and he looked pretty good when last seen in November. There are a few nice horses here that will take money but this horse wins with a mild improvement from his 2YO season.

[moses]

Well, Fun to Tap was awful. Hopefully my other pick isn’t so bad.

I may just be losing it though because I’m kind of liking this 2 horse Everytimeithinkofu in Race 5.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 #11 Hop Sing 8/1 - I think could go overlooked in here with some of the name horses/connections. Should be appreciative of the added ground if they run this one at the right distance today.

Best Value: Race 8 #4 Ocala Dream 12/1 - Should be rounding back into top form and that makes a player in here at a number.

[moses]

Nice call with Hop Sing. Just got edged out.

I need to recalibrate. I had built up quite a cushion but I’ve hit a drought. Time to lock in.

$216.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

[moses]

Wednesday picks.

Race 6. #4 Klimt Master, 20/1. Klimt Master was mugged at the start of last race but I was impressed with how he cut the corner heading into the stretch and really made up some ground. His figures fit with every contender here and he’s got the added benefit of dropping into MCL from the MSW ranks. He’ll get majorly overlooked due to his jockey and trainer but tell me how much you really trust any horse in this race. Give him a clean trip and he’s got a huge chance to win this.

Race 8. #1 Disco Star, 5/2. Disco Star looks like the most talented horse in this field by a wide margin and I don’t want to take short prices on the other likely favorites — Hangover Heaven, Nonna Lynne, and Trail of Gold. Casse has brought a lot of horses ready to run to Saratoga and I’d expect her to appreciate the slight cutback.

Thursday

Race 6. #5 Schwarzenegger, 8/5. I’ve been waiting to bet this 2YO and hoping he doesn’t scratch out again. Im very doubtful that we get 8/5 on him but if he’s 8/5 then I’m in.

Race 9. #6 Mo Kreesa, 15/1. The pace here looks favorable for Mo Kreesa and note he gets Johnny V aboard for this race. I thought the ML favorite Enlighten got a perfect trip last out and still wasn’t able to win. Now he switches to a different barn and loses Irad so I’m not inclined to take him at a short price even if Santana has been riding great. The other likely top choice #7 Steadfast Resolve drops in class and comes out of some longer races and has Irad aboard. I like that horse a lot more than Enlighten — but you’ve got to wonder if he’ll be compromised by what looks to be a slow or at least moderate pace. The other pace horse that might interest me is Gem Mint Ten but he draws Romero Maragh and I don’t have full confidence in him like I do Johnny V. Mo Kreesa also switches barns to Mark Hennig and looking for him to move the horse up a bit from Linda Dixon.