Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m going to swap this up a bit. I’ll stick with #4 Mullikin in race 6, just think he’s the best sprinter in there and he might get a wide trip so I’ll back him up with Book Em Danno in multis but don’t see the point in going wider there.

For race 9, I’m going to take an even bigger swing and roll with #2 Zeitlos, 8/1. Zeitlos finished 5th in this race last year. Despite running most of her races on dirt, she’s shown she can handle the turf. She’ll get an inside trip stalking the front runners and will need to get some running room in the stretch, but she’s capable of running them down at a big price. I liked Kairyu in 2nd off the layoff but she switches to Carmouche and while I love Carmouche for sprints, it’s a downgrade from Prat.

Bonus pick for the Haskell (won’t count toward totals): Obviously Journalism will be tough to beat but I think #4 Burnham Square has a shot at 5/1 or maybe even higher. Nearly every horse in this race has some early speed. If Rispoli stays too close to the pace, moves too soon into the fast pace, and/or goes wide to avoid getting boxed in like the Preakness, he’ll open himself up to getting run down by Burnham Square. Bottom line, I don’t trust Rispoli to give Journalism a great ride. And while Journalism is the most accomplished horse in this race and has been the best so far, there’s no way to know if that gap has shrunk until they run the race today. Aside from Burnham Square, Gosger and Goal Oriented are two horses who could have improved greatly since we’ve last seen them. It should be an interesting race.

Both my picks ran 2nd. $10.80 total added.

$88.00 wagered
$195.90 returned

Sunday.

Race 5. #3 Ba Dee Ya, 10/1
Race 7. #3 Zverev, 10/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Both my picks ran 2nd. $10.80 total added.

$88.00 wagered
$195.90 returned

Sunday.

Race 5. #3 Ba Dee Ya, 10/1
Race 7. #3 Zverev, 10/1

Not going to change my picks but going through the card, I’m not against Scylla in the Honorable Miss but anyone else think this horse Little Prankster could hit the board at 15/1?

I don’t know the story as to why she missed so much time but last out was not a bad race and she’s got a race from her 3YO year that puts her in contention if she can run back to it.

[theguarantee]

Looked at Little Prankster long and hard but ultimately decided against liking her...maybe will throw her in underneath though because she's not without merit.

Best Bet: Race 9 #9 Jody's Pride 4/1 - I do respect Scylla in here and maybe shell just love the 6F - she has always had that cutback look...but I don't know I still think she might just need better rides at those elongated sprint distances to see her best. But I have a hard time seeing this pace not being very contentious in here today and I have a feeling Jody's Pride is going to come rolling late. She's really good in my opinion and has basically always run well, the few races she wasn't super competitive were really high class fields/winners and a lot of times at distances I think were too long. Maybe shell need 7 or 8 furlongs after all but I have a funny feeling she might just as well like this distance if there's any legitimate pace to run at.

Best Value: Race 4 #1 Kigali 8/1- Really struggled coming up with anything else on this card...I think Kigali has some upside and can possibly beat Eliminate.

[moses]

Wrong Bauer. Damn.

Zverev ran 2nd and paid $4.90. Finally over the $200 mark.


$96.00 wagered
$200.80 returned

[moses]

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)

Correction for today. Remis Moon is race 4.

[theguarantee]

7/23
Best Bet: Race 7 #3 Beira 7/2 - steadily improving into that last effort which I actually think was legitimate. Might look to have come from nowhere but I think could repeat and if so they could be in trouble.
Best Value: Race 9 #8 Guilty 20/1 - Total stab here but it was either this or Catch a Wave on a card I don't love so ill take a swing...I do think King Puck is a very likely winner and also respect Light Fantastic...that said I don't know that either are overwhelmingly scary...Guilty will be a huge price and us clearly bred to love the turf. Working at Finger Lakes so who really knows, and especially without any works that really jump off the page...I don't know that Barrow has ever won a turf race but that should just add to the price as I doubt he's had many bred like this and hasn't tried a ton...what I do know from my time living out near Finger Lakes and paying some mild attention to the track at times is that Barrow can send them out ready to fire first out, particularly young horses in sprints. Again, a total stab but should be a huge number at least.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)

I’m going to change my picks for today. Stick with Crudo in the Curlin, who I think is going to wire the field. For my other pick, I’m going to go a little smaller and go with #7 Proctor Street in Race 8 at a short 2/1. A few things here. Proctor Street draws Irad who presumably gave up his ride on Mo Fox Givin. In her first off the layoff, Proctor Street ran great and will beat this field with a slight improvement. With the upgrade from Curtis to Irad, there’s not reason to think she doesn’t move forward here. #5 Tax Implications will be the favorite here but note Prat has been a little off and there are a few things I don’t like about her. Other than her Eatontown last June, none of her figures stand out. I guess you could say the Matriarch but I’m generally skeptical of big figures in turf races where the horse was simply picking up pieces late in the race without really vying for the win.

[theguarantee]

7/24
How quickly Saratoga can cool you off...
Best Bet: Race 10 #6 Doomed 5/1 - Really like this one today..improved vastly for Cox last out and I absolutely love the stretch to 9f today. Doesn't have the quickest turn of foot but has that slow into gear powerful kick, was really striding out the final furlong last out. I really think he will win in here today and just hope the ML price holds or comes close to...you would think it will..but it is Prat and Cox. Ill be trying to get live with no backups in all my late horizontals.

Best Value: Race 5 #7 Russi 6/1 - I don't recall the last time Bond won a race but it feels like forever...ill try to wake up the barn with a horse I've always had a thing for today. Russi loves Saratoga and the 5.5...maybe will need one off the bench but the price should be Ok even with Yarrow out. Set and Vacation Dance can win but I'm not exactly terrified of either.