Derby Week . . . $ & Bonus Extras, Opinions and Insights

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Looks like a tough post position for Fierceness and Pletcher. I saw that no horse has won the Derby from that gate..May boad well for Sierra Leone and Chad Brown. Havent been close to the prep faces, does Fierceness have enough early speed to clear the crowd?

I think that in 2020 Authentic wore saddlecloth 18; however, due to a scratch of a horse to his inside, he actually broke out of gate 17. Can anyone else help me verify that recollection?

I think that Fierceness has enough early speed to be forwardly placed down the long run to the first turn. It helps also that he has the rest of the early speed to his inside, so Johnny V should be able to move over before the crush of the turn. However, it appears that Just a Tough, Dornach and Track Phantom all have about as much early speed, so I just don't see Fierceness being able to set an easy pace. Besides, this is the Derby, so you can usually count of someone to forget they have to last 1 1/4 miles and gun for the lead. For me, it is difficult to trust Fierceness in the event that there is a fast or a contested pace. When he has had everything go his way, he is awesome and by far the most talented horse in the race. But, when it hasn't gone his way - see Holy Bull and Champagne.

In short (for me? Hah!) there might be some reasons to not bet on Fierceness, but the fact that he will be breaking from post 17 isn't one of them.

[JolyB]

Turns out that the issue of post 17 is academic. With the scratch of Encino, Fierceness will slide over one slot into gate 16.

[Real Quiet]

According to the chart there were only 15 horses in that race. Authentic's post was listed as 15 so I'm not sure if they moved the posts away from the rail.

[Real Quiet]

I really don't think that I will wager on the Derby via our site save a small Oaks / Derby Double. My main reason for this is I have no clue what to make of the
Japanese horses and as Joly stated there is value to be found on the undercard.
If I change my mind and dive into the pool and on other sites my key horse will be Just a Touch.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

I really don't think that I will wager on the Derby via our site save a small Oaks / Derby Double. My main reason for this is I have no clue what to make of the
Japanese horses and as Joly stated there is value to be found on the undercard.
If I change my mind and dive into the pool and on other sites my key horse will be Just a Touch.

I may have to eat my words, but they both look a little on the slow side and also one of them shipped to Dubai and I guessing back to Japan and then here. Sounds like way too much shipping to me. I'm not using either one of them. I'll probably regret it if I do play the Derby, but it's hard to resist.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

According to the chart there were only 15 horses in that race. Authentic's post was listed as 15 so I'm not sure if they moved the posts away from the rail.

Thanks for checking RQ. There must have been a bunch of scratches in that Derby. Then again, 2020 was a very strange year all around.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by JolyB

Thanks for checking RQ. There must have been a bunch of scratches in that Derby. Then again, 2020 was a very strange year all around.

The thing that was not strange about it was that Baffert won it. Now it seems strange that he is not in it.

[RUFFIAN]

Is The Kentucky Oaks Friday On Tv 📺
If So = What Network

[JolyB]

TV coverage of much of the Oaks card will be available on the USA Network, starting at 1:00 PM Eastern.

[DonGuido]

WEATHER REPORT for Friday and Derby Day. Scattered showers Friday on into the night with some possible downpours. Chance of rain Saturday with forcasted 40% coverage highs in the mid 70's. Basically unsettled.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by RUFFIAN

Is The Kentucky Oaks Friday On Tv 📺
If So = What Network

I'm sure Fanduel will have the full card. NBC may cover it too, not sure though.

[cal828]

Mine keeps getting longer and longer. Now up to half the field. Probably not a good sign for success.

[DonGuido]

Got my wager down and it's not on the Derby.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Got my wager down and it's not on the Derby.

I likely will regret it, but I will be betting nearly half my bankroll on the Derby. I always play a little "real" money on it so might as well play it in the contest too. It's usually my undoing every year and generally the reason I have to reload my wagering accounts, but it's just too exciting to sit on the sideline, but whatever floats your boat. I can see why others would want to avoid it.

[DonGuido]

Last Place - Grand Mo the First (Crazy name too)

Attendance - 147,500

[RUFFIAN]

ATTENDANCE = 147;000

LAST PLACE = 13 WEST SARATOGA
Even Ho My FAVORITE ## IS 13

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

I think that in 2020 Authentic wore saddlecloth 18; however, due to a scratch of a horse to his inside, he actually broke out of gate 17. Can anyone else help me verify that recollection?

I think that Fierceness has enough early speed to be forwardly placed down the long run to the first turn. It helps also that he has the rest of the early speed to his inside, so Johnny V should be able to move over before the crush of the turn. However, it appears that Just a Tough, Dornach and Track Phantom all have about as much early speed, so I just don't see Fierceness being able to set an easy pace. Besides, this is the Derby, so you can usually count of someone to forget they have to last 1 1/4 miles and gun for the lead. For me, it is difficult to trust Fierceness in the event that there is a fast or a contested pace. When he has had everything go his way, he is awesome and by far the most talented horse in the race. But, when it hasn't gone his way - see Holy Bull and Champagne.

In short (for me? Hah!) there might be some reasons to not bet on Fierceness, but the fact that he will be breaking from post 17 isn't one of them.

It's just hard to ignore the Pletcher-Velazquez combo, on a proved horse, especially in a big race.