Saturday March 23 Fair Grounds ROI Wagers go here

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by JolyB

I can't wait to see how the wagering in race 5 actually turns out. I'll bet that it bears no resemblance to the ML (other than the likely favorite). In a field of 9, the linemaker lists 5 runners at 6-1 and 3 more at 8-1. Surely that is the height of laziness. I agree that #6 is the deserving favorite (and should be less than 3-1). After that, while there are a number of first time starters, surely his knowldege of Louisiana breeding, workouts, trainer patterns and the like could lead to a much more sophisticated line.

The public deserves better that that.

As a follow up to my earlier post
ML versus actual odds for Race 5:

#1 ML - 6 Odds - 5
#2 ML - 6 Odds - 10
#3 ML - 6 Odds - 31
#4 ML - 8 Odds - 10
#5 ML - 6 Odds - 12
#6 ML - 3 Odds - 3/5
#7 ML - 8 Odds - 7
#8 ML - 8 Odds - Scr
#9 ML - 6 Odds - 12

[Real Quiet]

The timing of your post is right on the money. I read this morning that Emerald Downs will offer a dynamic morning line at their meet. Morning line odds will be updated to closely match "will pay". Since lines are made three to four days in advance the new ML will help players identify horses over or under valued.