Saturday February 17 Fair Grounds ROI Wagers go here

[Real Quiet]

R2...$11 ex key 12 w 2-10-13 ($33)

R11...$12 ex key 3 w 4-8-9 ($36)

R14...10 cent superfecta 4-5-6-8-11 w 4-5-6-8-11 w 4-5-6-8-11
w 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-11 ($30)

[RUFFIAN]

💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰🐎💰

I’M JUST A ‘CHROMED OUT CAT ‘ 🐱
AND ‘PLUM TRICKY’ SOME MAY SAY
AS I ‘BEE DANCIN’ RIGHT ALONG
ON MY FRISKY FELINE WAY


RACE 3
#4 = $30 WIN
🦅 HAWK CREEK


RACE 4
#8 = $20 WIN
A CHROMED OUT CAT 🐱

RACE 6
#3 = $30 WIN
PLUM TRICKY 😸

RACE 14 THE BIG DANCE 🐎
#12 = $20 WIN
BEE 🐝 DANCER 💃

CAJUN QUIRKY CATNIP QUICHE
FOR THE NOT SO QUIET ONE 🤫







🐯 MAY THE PURRRRR BE WITH YOU 😻

WEBSITE ===> www.RUFFIAN333.com

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[NJ Stinks]

Playing this week from Barbados. I was hoping to watch the horses run at Garrison Savannah tomorrow but my main reason for coming here missed their rare live dates by a couple weeks. Still, we're playing golf tomorrow so how bad can it be?

As for this week's at the Fair Grounds:

Race 12- $50 to win on #5 (Palazzi)

Race 14 - $50 to win on #4 (Sierra Leon)

Good luck to all.

[Digger]

R11: best actor 3 ( SHOW $100 )

[JolyB]

From time to time I've gotten up on my soap box to criticize the quality of a card's morning line. Today's ML at the Fair Grounds seems to be egregiously off of the mark. On a card of 14 races, there is only one horse listed at ML odds of less than 5-2, and that one (Nash) looks as if it will go off at odds on rather than the listed 9-5. Would anyone like to suggest an over/under of the number of horses on this card who will in fact go off at odds of less than 5-2?

[Zippy]

R1 $2exbx 2-6-7-10 ($24)

R2 $2exbx 2-7-9-10 ($24)

R9 $2exbx 1-6-8-10 ($24)

R13 $2exbx 2-4-5-6 ($24)
$4 Show #4

GOOD LUCK!!!

[JolyB]

Race #8:
$25 trifecta: 3,4 / 3,4,9 / 3,4,9 ($100)

Good luck to all and thank you to Real Quiet for scoring.

[Real Quiet]

Originally Posted by JolyB

From time to time I've gotten up on my soap box to criticize the quality of a card's morning line. Today's ML at the Fair Grounds seems to be egregiously off of the mark. On a card of 14 races, there is only one horse listed at ML odds of less than 5-2, and that one (Nash) looks as if it will go off at odds on rather than the listed 9-5. Would anyone like to suggest an over/under of the number of horses on this card who will in fact go off at odds of less than 5-2?

It would be nice JB if we got those morning line prices on all those horses. Getting a favorite that pays $8.00 makes it easier to make a few bucks. However I think you are 1000% correct in that the majority of winning favorites and perhaps a second choice or two will pay less than $7.

[Real Quiet]

And yes Ruff. We go by the rules. Nobody eliminated any of your 14 races. We all have our opinions and nobody infringed on your choice.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

It would be nice JB if we got those morning line prices on all those horses. Getting a favorite that pays $8.00 makes it easier to make a few bucks. However I think you are 1000% correct in that the majority of winning favorites and perhaps a second choice or two will pay less than $7.

I took a look at the charts to see if my rant about the morning line was valid. Turns out that in the 13 races that can be analyzed (Race 3 with only 3 runners can't be included in this discussion), there were 8 horses who went off at less than 2-1, including 2 of them in race 8. It was a rough day for the chalk players since of those 8, only 2 were winners, although a number of them finished 2nd. The 9/5 favorite in race 5 was in fact the 4th choice in the ML at 4-1.

I don't envy the job of the linemaker; I couldn't do it 5 days a week, with the requirement that it be available 2 days before the race. Add to that some of the other less mentioned factors, such as if you list a horse that will be an overwhelming favorite at 2/5, you must list some other runners in that race at 25-1 or higher for your numbers to work, and that can be viewed as an insult to the owners and trainers of those horses. I suspect that some linemakers take this factor into account. The fellow who does the line at Mountaineer mentioned this on one of his insightful race previews. Nonetheless, for races where I am looking at any significant play, I find that I need to put the ML aside and make my own in order to have any real feel for the race. That takes a lot of time and just can't be done for more than a couple of races per day.

OK, rant over. Just thought some of you might find this of interest.