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#2
08-19-2023, 02:58 PM
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To my mind the exacta payoff on race 5 was surprisingly low. The race finished with the 2nd choice Durante (#8) winning and the speed half of the entry Daufuskie Island (1A) finishing 2nd. The exacta payoff was $4.30 for $1.
I was shocked by two things: (1) The reverse exacta wil lpay of 1/8 would have paid $8.00. Normally the exacta of favorite over 2nd choice is the lowest payout. Here, 2nd choice over favorite was lowest by a lot. (2) With only a few minutes to post, the 1-8 will pay was around $6.00 and the 8-1 will pay was around $9.00. That was a very dramatic shift in payoffs in a very short time, even though the win odds didn't move very much (the entry stayed right around 7-5 and Durante dropped from 5-2 to 2-1). It took a lot of late money in the exacta pool to account for that movement. If I were a very cynical person, I'd suggest that some exacta bets were placed after Durante broke well from the gate and assumed the lead from Daufuskie Island, who on paper was supposed to be controlling speed. But I'm not cynical, just surprised and disappointed. 
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#3
08-19-2023, 04:59 PM
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Surprised me too. Usually you're on point with your wagering breakdown. Definitely something you don't see very often. Almost as weird as one of our players using a morning line horse under 12-1.
__________________
"The more I learn about humans, the more I love horses"
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#4
08-19-2023, 05:29 PM
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I'm up to my old "tricks" again changing my Race 9 wager the last minute and missing out on a decent exacta pay out. My picks are Brown over Cox, etc. but I chnaged the wager to Cox over Brown. The way it goes.
__________________
The wind of heaven is that which blows between a horse’s ears – Arabian Proverb
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#5
08-20-2023, 08:23 AM
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Quote:
Last week was the feast. This week the famine. Maybe we can all redeem ourselves on Travers day.
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