Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I struggled a bit with this card. One horse that I really like is Home For Christmas, who runs in race 4...but the inner turf has not been kind to early speed and I'm not sure if she can rate at all. At a 4/1 ML, I probably would have made her my best bet. But instead, I'm looking elsewhere for now.

Wednesday, July 20

Best bet: Race 8 - Mischievous Diane 4/1, Handal/Davis. Ray Handal always seems to bring a few really good horses up to Saratoga. In this case, Mischievous Diane has just looked better with each start. Her only losses came last year as a two year old, one of those in her debut and one to MGSW Kathleen O. She beat older horses last time out, seems to be improving, and is ready for a bigger challenge here.

Best value: Race 2 - Holiday Jazz 5/1, Duggan/Carmouche. Carmouche hasn't won for me yet...but I have a feeling the price on this horse could float up above the 5/1 morning line as I expect a lot of money to come in on Mariah's Fortune (Cox/Saez) and Evoking (Thomas/Irad). I like the addition of blinkers here and with an aggressive ride from Carmouche, I see this horse at least capable of wiring the field here. I'm not particularly crazy about the two favorites. Mariah's Fortune looks like the horse to beat but her best races came around two turns and I'm not sure if she'll like the cutback or not. Evoking enters the race off a 14-month layoff and her big win came in the slop, not to mention her works don't look especially great. Both are worth taking a shot against, imo. Holiday Jazz has shown a little promise in her maiden breaker and finished one length back of Chloe Rose two back (who won a starter allowance race here last week.)

A few other horses that I like at a price are: Rent Control (8/1) in race 3, Callie's Passion (6/1) in race 5, and I'm still interested in Classic Lynne (4/1) who runs in race 9 but curious about why she was scratched by the stewards over the weekend.

Good luck all.

Given it some thought and I’m going to swap my best bet from Mischievous Diane to #4 Classic Lynne in Race 9. One thing I try to do when picking these horses is identify favorites that I don’t like and then bet against them. In Race 8, although I like Mischievous Diane, I have nothing against the favorite Smash Ticket. MD is also a 3YO going against older here. I’ll be betting her, but I think Classic Lynne is a better bet. I don’t particularly like the two favorites in race 9 and Classic Lynne should win this if she takes any step forward from last year. Her works have been good and I’m not worried about Joe Sharp coming off the layoff. Basically all the reasons I liked her last week.

[theguarantee]

I'll update my totals after the races today. First card of the meet where not much jumped out at me.

Best Bet - Race 4: 6 Instinctive 5/2
Won't be surprised at any price in here but hoping some of the higher profile connections get bet and maybe she floats up a bit (though probably not as she seems popular today). I like the cutback to a mile and it seems like she should get a nice setup today.

Best Value - Race 9: 4 Classic Lynne 4/1
Let's see if we can get this one home today as a double barrel selection. I think we saw a lot of the same things in here. She's a Mia can win but is the type I want to be against. Lisa's Vision is also dangerous but I'm not in love with. I tried to make a case for Solib and Dufresne but ultimately couldn't quite get there with either. Classic Lynne, in her last turf start impressed me… fought with Luis a little early but then settled and got a perfect trip but really spurted home nicely when asked. Light on figs and a long layoff but the figs came as a 2yo in the fall so hoping she’s moved forward while off and feels like the one with some upside in here you want. We've seen how dangerous Joe Sharp is with these types.

Good luck.

[theguarantee]

Feat or famine so far.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$59.80

Thursday, 7/21 - travelling today and again not thrilled with the card.

Best Bet - Race 2: 4 No Burn 3/1
Hoping Dylan can ration out his speed today and get the distance. Second choice on the ML but I think might drift up if one or both of the 1 or 6 take money as I suspect they will.

Best Value - Race 6: 8 Jeremy's Jet 8/1
Guessing this one won't be too fancied given four attempts already but I like the experience. In his last he put away an odds on horse and just got mowed down late by a horse coming from way out of it. I thought that effort was pretty nice. Hasn't quite lasted going shorter but hoping maybe can get away a little easier with the added ground and last today.

[moses]

Boy, my picks were absolutely terrible yesterday. Holiday Jazz finished a distant 3rd and Classic Lynne finished a disappointing 4th. Going with two 2YO races today as I'm not all that crazy about the card. I wanted to talk myself into Timbuktu or Practice Squad to upset Dakota Gold...but I just think that horse is very, very good and don't want to bet against him today.

After Day 5.
Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $28.10
Record: 10 1-2-2

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 V Mart 6/1 ML, Avila/Olivero. I've generally tried to avoid 2YOs but there are a number of things that I like about this horse. First, the works are very good. Second, there is no clear standout in the race among the horses who have started already. Run Poppy, Smart Prize, and Clear the Deck have run well but none so great that the race is a foregone conclusion. This horse comes from the same owner/trainer combo as King Guillermo. King Guillermo was named after owner Victor Martinez's father. This one is named after Victor Martinez himself. Avila could has easily kept this horse at Monmouth for a maiden race on Saturday but ships him up to Saratoga instead. This signals to me -- this horse is live and I'll be very happy if we can get 6/1 on him.

Best value: Race 10 - #8 Determined Jester 15/1 ML, Schoenthal/McCarthy. This one is a bit of a stab...but check the price tag on this filly last September. Her works are all on dirt and not anything special but she should like the grass and note she is a 1/2 to Bodecream (winner of the Texas Turf Mile and in the money in a couple of graded stakes races on the turf) and to the stakes placed Califante (IRE). Her dam, Call Mariah, was unraced but is a 1/2 to Daredevil, Albertus Maximus, and Chasethegold. Chasethegold was 2nd in the G3 Ken Maddy Stakes (turf) at Santa Anita and produced Goldenrod runner up Goldrushgirl and turf winner Cayala (who later produced stakes winning Provocateur, last seen finishing 3rd behind Jack Christopher in the Woody Stephens.) Actually, you may not have seen that finish as Provocateur was 12 lengths back...but the point being - this horse is 15/1 and has a pretty nice pedigree. There are a couple other horses in this race with interesting pedigree connections (American Rockette, Strut) and some horses with more successful connections (Sugar Mamas Cakery, Factor That, Margaret Burbidge, Georgees Spirit), but I've talked myself into taking a shot on Determined Jester.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Boy, my picks were absolutely terrible yesterday. Holiday Jazz finished a distant 3rd and Classic Lynne finished a disappointing 4th. Going with two 2YO races today as I'm not all that crazy about the card. I wanted to talk myself into Timbuktu or Practice Squad to upset Dakota Gold...but I just think that horse is very, very good and don't want to bet against him today.

After Day 5.
Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $28.10
Record: 10 1-2-2

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 V Mart 6/1 ML, Avila/Olivero. I've generally tried to avoid 2YOs but there are a number of things that I like about this horse. First, the works are very good. Second, there is no clear standout in the race among the horses who have started already. Run Poppy, Smart Prize, and Clear the Deck have run well but none so great that the race is a foregone conclusion. This horse comes from the same owner/trainer combo as King Guillermo. King Guillermo was named after owner Victor Martinez's father. This one is named after Victor Martinez himself. Avila could has easily kept this horse at Monmouth for a maiden race on Saturday but ships him up to Saratoga instead. This signals to me -- this horse is live and I'll be very happy if we can get 6/1 on him.

Best value: Race 10 - #8 Determined Jester 15/1 ML, Schoenthal/McCarthy. This one is a bit of a stab...but check the price tag on this filly last September. Her works are all on dirt and not anything special but she should like the grass and note she is a 1/2 to Bodecream (winner of the Texas Turf Mile and in the money in a couple of graded stakes races on the turf) and to the stakes placed Califante (IRE). Her dam, Call Mariah, was unraced but is a 1/2 to Daredevil, Albertus Maximus, and Chasethegold. Chasethegold was 2nd in the G3 Ken Maddy Stakes (turf) at Santa Anita and produced Goldenrod runner up Goldrushgirl and turf winner Cayala (who later produced stakes winning Provocateur, last seen finishing 3rd behind Jack Christopher in the Woody Stephens.) Actually, you may not have seen that finish as Provocateur was 12 lengths back...but the point being - this horse is 15/1 and has a pretty nice pedigree. There are a couple other horses in this race with interesting pedigree connections (American Rockette, Strut) and some horses with more successful connections (Sugar Mamas Cakery, Factor That, Margaret Burbidge, Georgees Spirit), but I've talked myself into taking a shot on Determined Jester.

Race 10 is now off the turf so I'll switch that pick to Race 10 - #11 Binsky 8/1 ML. Irad is aboard so I don't know if that price will hold but Curlin horses generally seem to do OK on a wet track and I actually like the outside post for 2YOs as it gives them space out of the gate, even at the short distance.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Race 10 is now off the turf so I'll switch that pick to Race 10 - #11 Binsky 8/1 ML. Irad is aboard so I don't know if that price will hold but Curlin horses generally seem to do OK on a wet track and I actually like the outside post for 2YOs as it gives them space out of the gate, even at the short distance.

Of course, my original pick finishes ahead of my changed pick. But neither top 2.

I have a feeling I’m going to change that Harkie pick, too. Watched some of those races and I’m not sure that horse is interested in running much and not sure how much class relief it’s actually getting.

[moses]

If Alexis Zorba stays at 2/1 in race 1, I am betting a lot of money on him. I don’t think he can lose. Should probably be below even money, imo.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Feat or famine so far.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$59.80

Thursday, 7/21 - travelling today and again not thrilled with the card.

Best Bet - Race 2: 4 No Burn 3/1
Hoping Dylan can ration out his speed today and get the distance. Second choice on the ML but I think might drift up if one or both of the 1 or 6 take money as I suspect they will.

Best Value - Race 6: 8 Jeremy's Jet 8/1
Guessing this one won't be too fancied given four attempts already but I like the experience. In his last he put away an odds on horse and just got mowed down late by a horse coming from way out of it. I thought that effort was pretty nice. Hasn't quite lasted going shorter but hoping maybe can get away a little easier with the added ground and last today.

Nice call on No Burn.

[moses]

After Day 6.
Wagered: $48.00
Returned: $41.30
Record: 10 2-2-2

Posting my Friday picks now.

Best bet: Race 4 - #3 Miss Bonnie T 6/1 ML, Antonacci/Prat. I'm not sure how much pace is signed on here and this horse, at times, has shown some early pace ability and blinkers are added. From Cardenas to Prat, this is a huge upgrade at jockey, especially on turf. Her best performances put her in contention here and showing some confidence here in Prat to be able to work out the perfect trip for her. I think Beachfront Bid and I'm Glad will be heavily bet so looking to get a nice price on this one.

Best value: Race 2 - #2 Clubbing 6/1 ML, McGaughey/McCarthy. This 4 year old gelding is a full sibling to Passing Out, a 3-time winner on turf at a mile and 3rd place finisher in the Beaugay in 2020. He is a Stuart Janney / Phipps homebred who looked alright in the mud last time out but who I suspect much prefers the grass. Sired by Orb, Clubbing is a big, strapping horse with a nice long stride so I suspect he will do well in turf routes. The other thing of note for me - the Chad Brown duo seems quite a bit overrated at even money. I'm not sure how good the unraced Indemnify is but Growth Capital has come up short three times now. Fort Ticonderoga, who beat Growth Capital last time out, came back to finish 8th in an allowance race last week. I'm just not sure how good Growth Capital is and want no parts of him at even money.



Edit -- Removed Tyrannosaurus Rex in race 6 as best value and switched to Clubbing in race 2.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

After Day 6.
Wagered: $48.00
Returned: $41.30
Record: 10 2-2-2

Posting my Friday picks now.

Best bet: Race 4 - #3 Miss Bonnie T 6/1 ML, Antonacci/Prat. I'm not sure how much pace is signed on here and this horse, at times, has shown some early pace ability and blinkers are added. From Cardenas to Prat, this is a huge upgrade at jockey, especially on turf. Her best performances put her in contention here and showing some confidence here in Prat to be able to work out the perfect trip for her. I think Beachfront Bid and I'm Glad will be heavily bet so looking to get a nice price on this one.

Best value: Race 2 - #2 Clubbing 6/1 ML, McGaughey/McCarthy. This 4 year old gelding is a full sibling to Passing Out, a 3-time winner on turf at a mile and 3rd place finisher in the Beaugay in 2020. He is a Stuart Janney / Phipps homebred who looked alright in the mud last time out but who I suspect much prefers the grass. Sired by Orb, Clubbing is a big, strapping horse with a nice long stride so I suspect he will do well in turf routes. The other thing of note for me - the Chad Brown duo seems quite a bit overrated at even money. I'm not sure how good the unraced Indemnify is but Growth Capital has come up short three times now. Fort Ticonderoga, who beat Growth Capital last time out, came back to finish 8th in an allowance race last week. I'm just not sure how good Growth Capital is and want no parts of him at even money.



Edit -- Removed Tyrannosaurus Rex in race 6 as best value and switched to Clubbing in race 2.

Well I’ll be damned. Didn’t dislike the 2 in race 4 either but thought the 3 was better. And didn’t like Samuel aboard. Ah well. Redboard complete.

After day 7:
Wagered: $56.00
Returned:$44.30
Record 14 2-3-2

Going to hopefully post Saturday and Sunday picks this afternoon.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Well I’ll be damned. Didn’t dislike the 2 in race 4 either but thought the 3 was better. And didn’t like Samuel aboard. Ah well. Redboard complete.

After day 7:
Wagered: $56.00
Returned:$44.30
Record 14 2-3-2

Going to hopefully post Saturday and Sunday picks this afternoon.

I flirted with using Rhombique as my longshot for today but chickened out. Now the redboard is really complete

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Feat or famine so far.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$59.80

Thursday, 7/21 - travelling today and again not thrilled with the card.

Best Bet - Race 2: 4 No Burn 3/1
Hoping Dylan can ration out his speed today and get the distance. Second choice on the ML but I think might drift up if one or both of the 1 or 6 take money as I suspect they will.

Best Value - Race 6: 8 Jeremy's Jet 8/1
Guessing this one won't be too fancied given four attempts already but I like the experience. In his last he put away an odds on horse and just got mowed down late by a horse coming from way out of it. I thought that effort was pretty nice. Hasn't quite lasted going shorter but hoping maybe can get away a little easier with the added ground and last today.

Nice job!

2-1 on Jeremy's Jet?

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Nice job!

2-1 on Jeremy's Jet?

Ha, yeah....would've never guessed that, I even predicted the opposite. Someone knew. Luckily I was traveling and put in a couple set it and forget it plays. Would've never picked the horse if I thought it'd be anywhere near that price.