Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers: Flightline 112; Jack Christopher 107

[moses]

I have two thoughts on the Brooklyn.

One, a lot of these 12 furlong figures are hard for figure makers because there aren’t other races at the same distance those days to compare it to. Because of that, I’ve always questioned some of the figures a horse like Lone Rock was getting and I’m not sure how good many of the horses are that he’s faced.

Two, Fearless is a good horse obviously. He was 3-4 wide throughout the race and seemed to make a sustained move on the second turn which is maybe why that final quarter fraction came up so slow. Beyer figures don’t factor in ground loss but I’d be interested to see what the TG numbers are for Fearless vs Mo Donegal.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by moses

I have two thoughts on the Brooklyn.

One, a lot of these 12 furlong figures are hard for figure makers because there aren’t other races at the same distance those days to compare it to. Because of that, I’ve always questioned some of the figures a horse like Lone Rock was getting and I’m not sure how good many of the horses are that he’s faced.

Two, Fearless is a good horse obviously. He was 3-4 wide throughout the race and seemed to make a sustained move on the second turn which is maybe why that final quarter fraction came up so slow. Beyer figures don’t factor in ground loss but I’d be interested to see what the TG numbers are for Fearless vs Mo Donegal.

In addition to not factoring in ground lost, I also thought they didn't factor in internal fractions.

Also, one other thing about 12f races, particularly the Belmont Stakes. For all of those horse, it's their first (and likely only) time running 12f and so I would think that would make it difficult to determine what a "normal" race would look like for them at that distance. For example, whatever Jackie's Warrior's norm is in sprints, I can't have him run a 10f race and when the figure comes back weird, just assign his norm to it cause his 10f norm is not the same as his 6-7f norm, if that makes sense.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In addition to not factoring in ground lost, I also thought they didn't factor in internal fractions.

Also, one other thing about 12f races, particularly the Belmont Stakes. For all of those horse, it's their first (and likely only) time running 12f and so I would think that would make it difficult to determine what a "normal" race would look like for them at that distance. For example, whatever Jackie's Warrior's norm is in sprints, I can't have him run a 10f race and when the figure comes back weird, just assign his norm to it cause his 10f norm is not the same as his 6-7f norm, if that makes sense.

King Lone Rock wolf whatever has been a route of ground a billion times...He is who we thought he is

[King Glorious]

I wasn’t referring to any specific horse. Just the idea of trying to figure out a norm for something that they’ve never done.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I wasn't referring to any specific horse. Just the idea of trying to figure out a norm for something that they've never done.

"Never done" the Brooklyn and Belmont have been run on the same card for a while? They made fig based on an educated opinion of what made sense. I don't know if the fig is right or wrong, and neither do they. Beyer said on Byk's show they feel ok with the number and it's "cut loose." There was no chance it would be what the raw times suggested it should be, and I am not saying it should or should've been "created." But, they did what they thought accurately represented the race to the public. It is just an interesting racing discussion, nothing more, nothing less.

[King Glorious]

I agree with all you just said. I think maybe you misunderstood what I meant by never done. I’m strictly talking about the Belmont horses. None of them had ever run 12f before.

[blackthroatedwind]

The last horse I remember that had already run 12F before running in the Belmont was Great Contractor in 1976 ( he finished second or third behind Bold Forbes along with McKenzie Bridge ). He had faced olders on turf in Florida in April I think.