5/7 (CD): 148th Kentucky Derby Day

[Hoblin]

Originally Posted by LITF

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Hoblin

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

Of course it was impossible. The horse ran and he was well prepared and got an incredible ride.

But he was impossible. I don't care when he was born, he was completely outclassed going into the race and had been soundly beaten by these same horses before.

[Alabama Stakes]

Came home in 37 last time on poly and freaked on the local surface in second start. I was hoping he got in. Didn’t do me any good.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Came home in 37 last time on poly and freaked on the local surface in second start. I was hoping he got in. Didn’t do me any good.

Yeah he really "freaked" in that 30k claimer.

It's like you're allergic to saying intelligent things.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Of course it was impossible. The horse ran and he was well prepared and got an incredible ride.

But he was impossible. I don't care when he was born, he was completely outclassed going into the race and had been soundly beaten by these same horses before.

Won by 17 lengths over the track and 59.3 final work over the surface, excuses his two other dirt races, 107 BRIS LP last time when galloping out in front, Keen Ice x Smart Strike stretching to 10f, dam a G1 winner at 9f and G1 placed at 10f, etc.

Likely? Of course not. But solely on the synopsis above? I've seen more "impossible" horses win.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Won by 17 lengths over the track and 59.3 final work over the surface, excuses his two other dirt races, 107 BRIS LP last time when galloping out in front, Keen Ice x Smart Strike stretching to 10f, dam a G1 winner at 9f and G1 placed at 10f, etc.

Likely? Of course not. But solely on the synopsis above? I've seen more "impossible" horses win.

My cousin and I have been discussing if we could have included him in our combined Pick 5 bet. We were alive going into the Derby and I had ended up convinced the pace would be hot.

We only used 4 horses in the Derby: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Messier, and White Abarrio. We could have easily scrapped Messier. We both soured on him late.

As one of the few deep closers in the field, could we have used Rich Strike instead? We looked at everything you’re saying and obviously there are things to like. But there are things to like about every horse.

Based on the figures, him only finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby, and him only having one win which was a maiden claimer, I don’t see how we could have possibly included him. His figures were improving but he needed to take a massive jump up.

Two people at our party had him though. One person just wanted the longest shot on the board. The other person is 6 years old. I’m going to guess that’s about 90% of people who had him.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

My cousin and I have been discussing if we could have included him in our combined Pick 5 bet. We were alive going into the Derby and I had ended up convinced the pace would be hot.

We only used 4 horses in the Derby: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Messier, and White Abarrio. We could have easily scrapped Messier. We both soured on him late.

As one of the few deep closers in the field, could we have used Rich Strike instead? We looked at everything you’re saying and obviously there are things to like. But there are things to like about every horse.

Based on the figures, him only finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby, and him only having one win which was a maiden claimer, I don’t see how we could have possibly included him. His figures were improving but he needed to take a massive jump up.

Two people at our party had him though. One person just wanted the longest shot on the board. The other person is 6 years old. I’m going to guess that’s about 90% of people who had him.

Yeah it’s always easy AFTER an 80-1 wins to show reasons why he could win. Things like a gallop out, workout with no real context, Keen Ice as his sire (not sure that was a good thing but I digress).

The reality was all of the things mentioned could make him an interesting horse to spice up the super…maybe triple. He was 80-1 (and 99-1 earlier in the day) for a reason. It took a perfect storm of events for him to win.

Credit to the horse, the connections and a ride that will go down as one of the best Derby rides in history. Let’s see what happens in Baltimore.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah it’s always easy AFTER an 80-1 wins to show reasons why he could win. Things like a gallop out, workout with no real context, Keen Ice as his sire (not sure that was a good thing but I digress).

Sometimes you guys forget that this is supposed to be a forum for open discussion, not just a place to bicker and troll. I gave my opinion on how the horse might have been possible to some, which you may not agree on, but that's the point of a discussion

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Sometimes you guys forget that this is supposed to be a forum for open discussion, not just a place to bicker and troll. I gave my opinion on how the horse might have been possible to some, which you may not agree on, but that's the point of a discussion

He gave his opinion. I'm confident more people here agree with him than don't,

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Sometimes you guys forget that this is supposed to be a forum for open discussion, not just a place to bicker and troll. I gave my opinion on how the horse might have been possible to some, which you may not agree on, but that's the point of a discussion

Thanks Dad.

I thought I was giving my opinion too. I even said the things you mentioned might make him attractive to complete the tri or super. But certainly not as a win candidate.

We disagree which is fine but my response certainly didn’t discourage discourse.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by moses

But there are things to like about every horse.

Not always true...I would have a very hard time finding any sort of rhyme or reason if a horse like the 2 had won