My Derby Top 10

[Alabama Stakes]

It Will be more of a Creator ride. Remember that one ?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

It Will be more of a Creator ride. Remember that one ?

When he finished 13th?

[Conrad]

I read yesterday that Asmussen is on a losing streak of 70+ races in the state of Kentucky, and I like Epicenter

He was 0 for Turfway, 0 for Keeneland, and so far is 0 for Churchill this meet. Kind of makes you wonder, eh?

Sometimes I hate all this damned information

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Conrad

I read yesterday that Asmussen is on a losing streak of 70+ races in the state of Kentucky, and I like Epicenter

He was 0 for Turfway, 0 for Keeneland, and so far is 0 for Churchill this meet. Kind of makes you wonder, eh?

Sometimes I hate all this damned information

That’s very interesting. Goes back to Keeneland last fall when he was 1 for the meet.

Considering he will very likely have the favorite in the Derby and Oaks, something to consider.

[jms62]

Asmussen is an eye popping 1/18 for (29.40) in Graded Stakes at CD since 01-01-21 and 0-6 in GRADE 1 races.

[Conrad]

I suppose we're all thinking the same thing in regards to why he's so cold in Kentucky...it's got be something more than just a streak of bad luck.

[theguarantee]

You really think Echo Zulu will be favored over Kathleen O and Nest? I was thinking her being 3rd choice was one of the few things the ML maker got right...

I didn't expect to like Secret Oath when I started capping the race but I've kind of circled back to her. I don't think EZ has come back in the same form and I'm a little dubious that she really wants this trip. Nest can win but feels like an underlay off one fast race, on a bit of a quirky track and I think a bit of a weak rendition of the Ashland. Kathleen O to me is very much the horse to beat and I'll include in all of my horizontals. Secret Oath's trip in the last is obvious but merits a re-watch just to see how comically bad it really was. If you draw a line through that, which I think you should, her prior three efforts at least put her right there with the others and she's hopefully the best price of the main four.

On Asmussen, if you go back and include last Spring and just look at Churchill the numbers kind of even out. They're a little worse than his typical...he is 0/20 in his last 20 stakes starters at Churchill with 7 hitting the board. While it's interesting and I can't fault anyone for considering it, I personally will not be letting it impact how I view Steve's runners over the next few days.

Since it's a Derby thread I'll give my thoughts, subject to change by Saturday, as I haven't quite finished handicapping yet. Overall, I do expect we see a legitimate pace this year, perhaps foolishly but I think with Classic Causeway and Summer is Tomorrow having no other way of going with most of the rest of the field looking for early position/interested in pressing, I think we actually might get a meltdown for the first time in a while.

Mo Donegal to me is the one runner I am most certain will be doing significant running late. Not just passing tired rivals but legitimately running, I think the 1 post is just fine and he's my top pick.

I somewhat wish Crown Pride wasn't getting so much attention for his workouts as I already liked him, however I suppose he'll still be quite a price and he's the other I want to build tickets around. I realize the UAE has yet to be a productive route but I think he has the potential to change that this year. I know most figuremakers who have attempted a swing at the race also have it a little ways off but he probably traveled close to the full mile and a quarter, never even trying to save a step of ground. Liked the way he zoomed up to the leader under confident handling and while he seemed to stall a bit eventually leveled off and won fairly easily. Figures to sit an ideal trip if the race shapes up as I expect. BTW check out the chart comment "Had no excuse" and then re-watch his Hyacinth...not sure if that's a cultural difference or he simply missed the trip in there (although, how??)...

I do think Zandon and Epicenter are legitimate contenders and I don't have a huge knock on either. Leaning toward Zandon just based on race shape but Epicenter's last gives plenty of indication that he should be fine.

Like others in here have mentioned I'm most conflicted about the California runners. I've never really thought Messier was special and while I get that these horses were products of Baffert and most intelligent observers are considering that they are Yakteen as a non-factor, I'm looking at it as a slight knock. Taiba seems tough not to include, especially if the price is right. He figures to get a great trip just off the pace, will get the jump on the closers I like and while it's a lot to ask I don't necessarily want to be totally against him with no actual knocks beyond inexperience...I feel I can poke holes in everyone else in the field...

Smile Happy, Charge It and Simplification are the other prices I'm still looking at. I really liked Smile Happy's return this year and the Blue Grass effort was solid, it seems to set him up to move forward here but I have some major knocks - breeding (can get past), McPeek (not his biggest fan but can get past) and workouts (seemingly tough to get past with how well the majority are working/throws some water on the idea he's set to move forward again).

Charge It I will probably end up leaving off as I can't really come up with a legit excuse for his Florida Derby and I'm no White Abarrio fan (Saffie Joseph will have to win his first Derby before I give his horses any consideration personally)...horse seems to have unlimited upside though.

Simplification seems to be training forward, will be a big price and has a little dirtied up form. Love that they'll take him back and make one run here...not enamored with what he was facing down in Florida but I think I want in the mix at his odds.