My Derby Top 10

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don't love Epicenter, but he's the most accomplished and the step forward he took in the LA Derby can't really be ignored. SHowing the new dimension and being able to rate so kindly and then kick when given the cue was very impressive.

In regards to the price, I think he and Zandon are going to be very similar prices. I wouldn't be shocked if Zandon is the favorite actually. I don't think he was done any favors in the draw though. Sort of forces Rosario's hand a little to establish position early to avoid getting shuffled. With Leparoux on Classic Causeway, if I was Asmussen, I'd tell Rosario to ask a bit out of the gate and if they end up on the lead, be happy with it.

I'm not betting Epicenter, but he will be an "A" on any multi race bet I make.

I've landed on Cyberknife for a win bet. I think he still has upside and was really impressed with his race in the Arkansas Derby. Having Cox as his trainer doesn't hurt and he is tractable. WHile I despise trainer or jockey speak, I remember hearing Geroux talk before the Arkansas Derby about how Cyberknife has done things in the morning no other horse he has been on have done, which seemed like a pretty glowing endorsement. Again, take that for what it's worth, which is probably nothing. He's been getting very good marks in the morning the last few weeks and I think if he can behave in the stretch he's going to be a handful.

To me after that Epicenter, Zandon, Smile Happy, CHarge It, Simplification, Barber Road and Zozos would not surprise me for 2nd.

I am coming around on Cyberknife a bit. I keep thinking how Mandaloun was training leading up to the Derby and he put a great race in. Cyberknife sort of has that feel to me. On the flip side, I think I’m completely out on Zozos. I just can’t get past his pedigree, even if he was able to go 1 3/16 in Louisiana, I just don’t see the pace playing out that way. Tawny Port interests me a bit though as they wheeled him back in two weeks and he did not disappoint.

No love for Messier? I haven’t decided if I think he can effectively rate. If he gets involved in the early pace with Summer is Tomorrow and Classic Causeway and anyone else, I don’t see him winning and that probably sets up one of the closers if they can make out a good trip.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

I am coming around on Cyberknife a bit. I keep thinking how Mandaloun was training leading up to the Derby and he put a great race in. Cyberknife sort of has that feel to me. On the flip side, I think I’m completely out on Zozos. I just can’t get past his pedigree, even if he was able to go 1 3/16 in Louisiana, I just don’t see the pace playing out that way. Tawny Port interests me a bit though as they wheeled him back in two weeks and he did not disappoint.

No love for Messier? I haven’t decided if I think he can effectively rate. If he gets involved in the early pace with Summer is Tomorrow and Classic Causeway and anyone else, I don’t see him winning and that probably sets up one of the closers if they can make out a good trip.

Messier is the one horse I have no idea what to do with. I don't like how he got run down last time, but at the same time, he missed a race so being a little short can be expected.

I'll probably include him on a multi race ticket but feel like he's either going to win or run 18th.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Messier is the one horse I have no idea what to do with. I don't like how he got run down last time, but at the same time, he missed a race so being a little short can be expected.

I'll probably include him on a multi race ticket but feel like he's either going to win or run 18th.

Ya I think that last race was needed for the horse.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Ya I think that last race was needed for the horse.

That's part of my thought process. Same goes for Smile Happy, imo. Which is why I'm so high on both Messier and Smile Happy.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Messier is the one horse I have no idea what to do with. I don't like how he got run down last time, but at the same time, he missed a race so being a little short can be expected.

I'll probably include him on a multi race ticket but feel like he's either going to win or run 18th.

I don't think there is anyone as fast as Forbidden Kingdom in this race and I thought the way he finished was pretty impressive given the pace battle he was in. That said, what are the chances that John Velazquez "wins" the Derby three years in a row with the runner up in the Santa Anita Derby?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

I don't think there is anyone as fast as Forbidden Kingdom in this race and I thought the way he finished was pretty impressive given the pace battle he was in. That said, what are the chances that John Velazquez "wins" the Derby three years in a row with the runner up in the Santa Anita Derby?

I don't think battle is the word I'd use. He stalked Forbidden Kingdom comfortably and went by him pretty easily around the turn.

Taiba was only another 2 lengths back. So if he was able to sit close and outfinish Messier after just a 6F race, how is Messier going to beat him this time? And I don't like Taiba at all.

Like I said...I have no idea what to make of Messier.

[FATPIANO]

Top Five:
Taiba
Messier
Epicenter
White Abarrio
Zandon

[Cajungator26]

Messier reminds me of Perfect Drift a bit. He seems to enjoy running with the herd and will hang when given the opportunity. With that said, I personally can't see him actually winning the race... Who knows though?

[LITF]

I keep coming back to Smile Happy. Can't help but think he is coming into this race in eerily similar fashion to his grandsire. Super Saver lost both of his starts to begin his three year old campaign just like Smile Happy. He drew the four post, Smile Happy the five, and won the Derby. I think Smile Happy projects to get a similar trip to what Super Saver got. Not sure if Smile Happy will stick to the rail all the way around but he certainly should be saving ground into that first turn. He'll be a little further back than Super Saver but with what looks like quite a few horses that want to be on or near the front, that might be the place to be.

Probably (definitely) over thinking this but I don't want anyone that will be too close to the lead. Epicenter certainly can win but I don't want him at 4-1. I don't want Zandon or Mo Donegal either. Too much traffic to trust a deep closer at single digit odds in a race like this.

Cyberknife is the other horse I'm talking myself into as the week goes on...was going to toss him completely now I have him as a B.

This is one of the more exciting Derbies in recent memory so I'm sure I'll change my mind a few more times before Saturday.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don't think battle is the word I'd use. He stalked Forbidden Kingdom comfortably and went by him pretty easily around the turn.

Taiba was only another 2 lengths back. So if he was able to sit close and outfinish Messier after just a 6F race, how is Messier going to beat him this time? And I don't like Taiba at all.

Like I said...I have no idea what to make of Messier.

The best horse in the KD is Taiba. I don't think he should have been in this position that said he is.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

I am coming around on Cyberknife a bit. I keep thinking how Mandaloun was training leading up to the Derby and he put a great race in. Cyberknife sort of has that feel to me. On the flip side, I think I’m completely out on Zozos. I just can’t get past his pedigree, even if he was able to go 1 3/16 in Louisiana, I just don’t see the pace playing out that way. Tawny Port interests me a bit though as they wheeled him back in two weeks and he did not disappoint.

No love for Messier? I haven’t decided if I think he can effectively rate. If he gets involved in the early pace with Summer is Tomorrow and Classic Causeway and anyone else, I don’t see him winning and that probably sets up one of the closers if they can make out a good trip.

Do you have concerns that Cyberknife’s last 3/8 was 39 1/5 and Mo Donegal ran His last 3/8 in 35 2/5 ? If not, why not ?

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Do you have concerns that Cyberknife’s last 3/8 was 39 1/5 and Mo Donegal ran His last 3/8 in 35 2/5 ? If not, why not ?

Sure. To be honest, I still have Mo Donegal way above Cyber Knife.

[Dahoss]

Always a good idea to compare times from different tracks and different days. Solid handicapping there. Because as we all know, each track is the same and the day doesn't matter.

I'm also shocked to find out a dead closer runs faster late than a horse who is close to the pace.

I'm learning so much.

[Alabama Stakes]

Where are 20 lengths faster not way faster ? Which track has that much of a disparity ? Cyber knife has no chance.

[Dahoss]

That was some rebuttal.

Well I'm changing all my bets now.

Next compare turf and dirt times. This is some real next level stuff you've uncovered.

[Alabama Stakes]

Mo running sub 12 cyber knife running +13’s . Mo never finishes behind Cyber Knife.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Do you have concerns that Cyberknife’s last 3/8 was 39 1/5 and Mo Donegal ran His last 3/8 in 35 2/5 ? If not, why not ?

Any worries about the trip for a closer in a 20 horse field? The last Remsen winner I bet in the Derby was Saarland. Similar style. It didn’t end well.

[Alabama Stakes]

Great analogy… Mo is ridden by a jock who finds holes or creates them himself. This will be similar to Creator in the Belmont. For the $180,000 share he will get. He will figure out a trip.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Great analogy… Mo is ridden by a jock who finds holes or creates them himself. This will be similar to Creator in the Belmont. For the $180,000 share he will get. He will figure out a trip.

You could be right. Saarland’s jock was a slow starter in triple crown races but found his footing eventually.

Good luck.

[Dahoss]

Irad definitely found the right trip last year when he broke from the rail on another Pletcher trainee.