They'll be Hanging From the Rafters at the Big A Friday

[Buffymommy]

Take The Bluff! Jazil needs more distance, I am not bashing him. I like the little horsie. I hope Jazil wins lots more races to earn some respect, but I say TTB wins this one.

[Gander]

Is Jazil "by definition the fastest horse in the race?"

[Rudeboyelvis]

Don't see him winning here, I'd like to see a little more distance for him against this pace...although he broke his maiden over the same track at the same distance. That said, I like him keyed under the 1,2,3,6 - if it's even worth betting.

[Gander]

This distance is perfect for him and these arent very good horses.

If this race was any farther, it may be harder for him to win. The pace would be slower. People confuse closers with having more success the farther they go. Thats not right at all. Jazil will get a nice pace to run into and Jara obviously knows this horse. While he may be better next time out, he is good enough on talent alone to run these down and by open lengths.

This is a very weak field for his return.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Gander

This distance is perfect for him and these arent very good horses.

If this race was any farther, it may be harder for him to win. The pace would be slower. People confuse closers with having more success the farther they go. Thats not right at all. Jazil will get a nice pace to run into and Jara obviously knows this horse. While he may be better next time out, he is good enough on talent alone to run these down and by open lengths.

This is a very weak field for his return.

The part in bold is excellent and in my opinion, exactly right. The second part about him being good enough is, again, in my opinion, totally wrong. This is one of the worst horses ever to win a TC race and he's totally overrated. He's got no speed whatsoever and I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that he'll never win another grade one race. Actually, I'll take it a step further and say he'll never win another stakes race of any grade. By midyear, when he's retired, he'll still just have the same number of wins on his record that he's got now.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Am I the only one that saw the 2 horse stumble at the gate, get his legs under him, take the lead around the mile - 7/8th pole and hold it until he had nothing left while Jazil maintained a fairly constant pace the whole trip, closing in stretch down to the final 1/16th to within 2 lengths?

Not making excuses, but even McLaighlin said he needs more distance - from NYRA website:

>>> “We anticipated this a little bit. You have to be concerned with the tight turns and backing up to a mile and a sixteenth. He wants farther; we know that."<<<

This race goes 1 1/8 instead of 1 1/16th and you've got a different winner. Not that that's anything to celebrate.

But this logic that Jazil would have fared worse going longer is incomprehensable...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that he'll never win another grade one race.

Not much of a tree you're venturing onto there Captain Obvious.

I also think Jazil is a better horse than you think. Grade 1? He's a dog...probably less likely than Strong Contender....but he has an outside shot. The reason your other bold prediction MAY come true is he may make too many starts where he doesn't belong. But I think if given a fair shot in reasonable starts he will surprise you.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not much of a tree you're venturing onto there Captain Obvious.

I also think Jazil is a better horse than you think. Grade 1? He's a dog...probably less likely than Strong Contender....but he has an outside shot. The reason your other bold prediction MAY come true is he may make too many starts where he doesn't belong. But I think if given a fair shot in reasonable starts he will surprise you.

I realized the first part was too easy so that's why I added the second. I don't think he has any shot to win though because I don't see them as the type to take steps backwards with him once they take him back to stakes competition. I think he'll either race in big races and lose and then be retired or he'll race in big races and lose and keep running. But I don't see them running him in cheap stakes races.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Don't see him winning here, I'd like to see a little more distance for him against this pace...although he broke his maiden over the same track at the same distance. That said, I like him keyed under the 1,2,3,6 - if it's even worth betting.

Taake the Bluff wins it - Jazil 2nd and one of the coupled entries was third.

Impossible to really see anything for the fog. looks like Jara started him a bit late but he really didn't show the closing speed you would have expected.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Taake the Bluff wins it - Jazil 2nd and one of the coupled entries was third.

Impossible to really see anything for the fog. looks like Jara started him a bit late but he really didn't show the closing speed you would have expected.

He's never really been a closer, he just runs the same speed all race so passes tiring horses at the end. Looks like he isn't any faster that he'll be a factor at 8.5 to 9 furlongs. Time to start building a campaign around the 9.5 to 10 furlong stakes. Can't believe he went at less than even money here.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's never really been a closer, he just runs the same speed all race so passes tiring horses at the end.

That is a closer.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

That is a closer.

I consider a closer a horse that sits back and turns it on at the end. He doesn't do that, he runs the same pace the whole way. I'd consider him a plodder which sounds insulting but he's at least a very good plodder.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's never really been a closer, he just runs the same speed all race so passes tiring horses at the end. Looks like he isn't any faster that he'll be a factor at 8.5 to 9 furlongs. Time to start building a campaign around the 9.5 to 10 furlong stakes. Can't believe he went at less than even money here.

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

Than how do you differentiate a "plodder"?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

And the difference is that you will never see Jazil throw those sort of fractions. His best races have all been run in fractions between 24 and 25 the whole way. The mistake today was in taking him back too far early so that he was running slower than 25. It is a total oversimplication to categorize any horse who starts from deep as a closer. There are two totally different groups of horses that start near the back. The closers are the ones that have a late kick that will be better or worse depending on how fast they are forced to go early. The plodders are the horses that just run the same speed the whole way. You have late pace in your figures. You have to have seen that there are certain of your closers that have a late kick that totally varies dependant on how fast they go early and others, like Jazil, that are remarkably similar every race. Those ones actually probably have their late speed improve with added distance in your figures since finishing between 24 and 25 at 12 furlongs is much more impressive than at 6 furlongs.

[Gander]

He ran decent for a suck up 2nd behind a horse who was able to dictate his own pace even after a clumsy start. Take the Bluff got pounded to 3/1, late money rules at the Big A. Kind of stinks for those people who thought they were getting 6/1 with like 4 mtp.

[Sightseek]

Good boy! (no one please bite my head off, this is my favorite horse in training )

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Good boy! (no one please bite my head off, this is my favorite horse in training )

No biting of heads. He is a nice horse. I want him to win more races to earn some respect from others. He did win the Belmont. I like him too. Not my fave horse in training, but I do like him.

[Gander]

While his Belmont win was going 12F, I dont necessarily think the longer he goes the better. Unless he gets significantly faster, hes going to have a problem winning any race over 9F against really top handicap horses. That Belmont field was brutal, worst ever assembled.

Hes kind of a tweener to me. Not fast enough to win at a mile, isnt ever going to capitalize on a field as weak as the Belmont Stakes again going long. May be a decent grade 3/ high priced allowance horse.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Gander

While his Belmont win was going 12F, I dont necessarily think the longer he goes the better. Unless he gets significantly faster, hes going to have a problem winning any race over 9F against really top handicap horses. That Belmont field was brutal, worst ever assembled.

Hes kind of a tweener to me. Not fast enough to win at a mile, isnt ever going to capitalize on a field as weak as the Belmont Stakes again going long. May be a decent grade 3/ high priced allowance horse.

I disagree totally. Virtually every two furlong segment of every race he's run has been between 24 and 25 seconds. The shorter the race is the tougher it is to compete running that speed. At 12 furlongs he'd do well against most of the top horses out there. 10 furlongs is going to be tough, 9 will be extremely difficult. At a mile he has no chance.