Weekend Stakes Beyers: Medina Spirit 102; Malathaat 95

RolloTomasi · #1 05-03-2021, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

We could accurately reverse engineer racing decisions from trainers that make bad decisions every day. You had 10 reasonably good animals that didn't run an 80 BSF that is a tough pill to swallow in the Pat Day Stakes on the first Saturday in May at CD. This wasn't a Feb 12th field in an NW1 Aqueduct which will have at least 3 horses will run an 80 fig.

Just to be clear, you saw the fractions of the race, right?

And you are also aware that every single 2021 route start (and nearly every sprint start, too, actually) from every single horse in the race save for Prevalence's tailored team workout second time out resulted in a running line in which ground (i.e., multiple lengths) was lost in the stretch? (This was all on paper beforehand, by the way...)

I thought I covered most of the field, but which specific horse did you think was: (1) not in declining form or (2) had shown the ability to handle further than 7f or (3) had shown the ability to survive a fast pace or (4) shown the ability to close in a route?

Was I supposed to analyze the scratched horse?

blackthroatedwind · #2 05-03-2021, 09:30 PM

I don’t know why it’s so hard to understand that Beyer figs are final time Figs, Freddy, and that horses that set excruciating paces will always run final time figures lower than the actual performance they gave. There was zero chance Jackie’s Warrior was going to get a big final time fig given that pace. He and the runner up ran huge. The Beyer fig was never going to tell that story. I honestly cannot understand why you keep harping on this.

It’s the opposite of raising figs because super slow fractions make fast final times impossible, something you see far more frequently in turf races.

fantini33 · #3 05-04-2021, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don’t know why it’s so hard to understand that Beyer figs are final time Figs, Freddy, and that horses that set excruciating paces will always run final time figures lower than the actual performance they gave. There was zero chance Jackie’s Warrior was going to get a big final time fig given that pace. He and the runner up ran huge. The Beyer fig was never going to tell that story. I honestly cannot understand why you keep harping on this.

It’s the opposite of raising figs because super slow fractions make fast final times impossible, something you see far more frequently in turf races.

Timeform Figures illustrate this perfectly. The numbers ARE derived from pace. The winner doesn’t always end up with the highest fig. It opened my eyes to an entirely better way of judging performances.

blackthroatedwind · #4 05-04-2021, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fantini33

Timeform Figures illustrate this perfectly. The numbers ARE derived from pace. The winner doesn’t always end up with the highest fig. It opened my eyes to an entirely better way of judging performances.

Better is a tricky word. Different and worth comparing to try to determine why they sometimes disagree