Who is your top Kentucky Derby contender? Part II.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

Highly Motivated controlled a fairly modest pace in the Blue Grass, tired down the stretch, and was finished off by Essential Quality. Normally, you could make the case that he's eligible to improve in his 3rd off the layoff but I feel like Chad Brown normally has his horses ready to run regardless of a layoff and, based on that race and his pedigree, I'm just not sure he can "get the distance."

He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.

I appreciate the feedback. It gives me something to consider that I hadn’t been thinking about before.

[wac]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.

really liked Good Magic in BC juvy that year. Good horse. i think highly motivated has some talent and he ran tough vs ess qualt. was a good race. i guess we will have to see how the pp's come out and the weather as well. Always hold my breath on that hate to see them run in the slop. Thanks for responding BTW i know you are a busy man and have a lot of things going on at this time of the year.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He didn't exactly "control" a fairly modest pace. He actually set it with the favorite, and eventual winner, sitting right outside of him. He didn't exactly "tire" down the stretch...he just finished slightly less well than the horse that is highly likely to be favored in the Derby, and about one third of the price that he will be in that race. Is it possible that Chad Brown considers him a better horse when rating, and only went to the lead in the Blue Grass because if he didn't, Essential Quality would have waltzed on the lead, making him essentially unbeatable?

Good Magic ran third in his 3YO debut, ran a similar race to Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass ( he won but he hardly beat much and if I recall correctly ran a very similar figure ), and then gave Justify a run for his money in the Derby ( and Preakness ). Isn't Highly Motivated following a similar pattern to Chad Brown's most successful Derby runner? How about Normandy Invasion? He was a mediocre second in the Wood, and then ran arguably the best race in the Derby. Isn't a better argument that Chad Brown has demonstrated a good plan for getting his Derby contenders to peak on the first Saturday in May?

I'm not trying to sing the praises of Highly Motivated, who agreeably has some real distance questions, more poking realistic holes in the argument that you made.

Your first paragraph is exactly where I'm at....he could get lost on the board and one hiccup for EQ and the slight margin that he won by in the Blue Grass is history. The odds of that happening in a field of 20 are good enough for me to take a big swing...