8/8 (SAR): Travers, Test, Ballerina (G1's), Troy, Waya (G3's)

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.

Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.

Their Timeform numbers are pretty close and that final 1/8 in Uncle Chuck’s last race gives plenty of reason to think he will like 10 furlongs. Not sure if he will win or not but I’m using both in my Pick 5. I don’t think I will even bet the race. If I do, I may throw like $5 down on Caracaro to win, which I think is unlikely but impressed by his race last time out.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.

If you're a sheet guy, South Bend, Caracaro, and Uncle Chuck all have big move up potential. Whether South Bend is able to move up to beat Tiz is debatable, but the other 2 definately can have something to say... those 3 with Tiz for me are only logical horses, unless Country Grammer get a sub 1:10 3/4 mile to run into which I don't see.
I see Uncle Chuck as the speed of the speed, the NYRA jock colony, in typical NYRA jock colony fashion will allow him a clear lead and walk to a half in 50 and that's all he's going to need. unless someone with no chance like Shiveree decides to try and cook him early.

I agree with you Tom that Tiz should win. But there are a lot of factors in here that are going to test him and at 2-5/3-5, no thanks. He is going to be horribly overbet.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If you're a sheet guy, South Bend, Caracaro, and Uncle Chuck all have big move up potential. Whether South Bend is able to move up to beat Tiz is debatable, but the other 2 definately can have something to say... those 3 with Tiz for me are only logical horses, unless Country Grammer get a sub 1:10 3/4 mile to run into which I don't see.
I see Uncle Chuck as the speed of the speed, the NYRA jock colony, in typical NYRA jock colony fashion will allow him a clear lead and walk to a half in 50 and that's all he's going to need. unless someone with no chance like Shiveree decides to try and cook him early.

I agree with you Tom that Tiz should win. But there are a lot of factors in here that are going to test him and at 2-5/3-5, no thanks. He is going to be horribly overbet.

Definitely over bet for sure. Hard to bet the race as I feel tiz is sitting on huge one. Though you never know at this track. I think Caracaro may show some early speed too. Way meet is going you need to be near front. Good luck today Dan

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Definitely over bet for sure. Hard to bet the race as I feel tiz is sitting on huge one. Though you never know at this track. I think Caracaro may show some early speed too. Way meet is going you need to be near front. Good luck today Dan

putting a couple of dollars on Max Player...maybe Rosario can keep him closer to the pace and possibly make up some ground in the stretch...

[gamblin4ever]

1st
Welcome back Rudeboyelvis. I hope you're doing much better.

2nd
Don't discount Baffert when he ships in. He talked about UC's stride and believes he'll like 1 1/4mi. Also, Mott saw SB train on dirt and thinks 1 1/4 might work. I don't think Country Grammar is good enough at this point to beat the top horses yet. Caracaro just looks like a much better horse when he stretched out and trainer is underated I believe.