August 1 Saratoga Card + Bing Crosby Points Picks go here . . .

[cal828]

I sometimes shy away from those short fields with short priced favorites, but they often turn out different than we anticipate. Have certainly seen that stumble thing happen a lot. Funny thing is, it's usually Improbable that has all the difficulty getting out of the gate.

As for Vexatious, can't say I was any wiser than anybody else, but she had some good, though not winning races against some pretty good horses. She was second in her last race, I think, to Monomoy Girl and I noticed she also had a decent race again Blue Prize, the mare that beat Midnight Bisou in the Breeder's Cup last year, so I guess the talent was there.

[JolyB]

While not one of our contest races, the Shared Belief from Del Mar also was a head scratcher. After the defections of Uncle Chuck [Travers] and Anneau d'Or [Ellis Park], they were left with a field of 4. Honor A.P. was an overwhealming favorite. Baffert's Thousand Words led all the way and qualified for the KY Derby, but didn't impress me very much. Honor A.P. ran a puzzling race - he had moved up to second place, but seemed to be struggling on the final turn and finally kicked in much too late to finish second.

From what I saw of Honor A.P. today, I'd have trouble including him on my Derby short list. Mike Smith thought that he needed more distance, but I'm not sure that was the only issue. It's worth your watching a tape of the race if you're in the HAP camp. Perhaps you'll see something that I didn't.