Form has gone out the window . . . or

[cal828]

To be honest, I don't think it's all that unusual. Frustrating for sure and I sympathize with you, but I think it's pretty typical of horse racing. I think Miz Ruffian has the right idea. The rest of us try to make it a reasonable logical thing, but it just isn't and we refuse to accept it and keep on doing the same things (which is how some people define insanity.)

Really, I think there are parts of handicapping that are logical and parts that are not. The problem is figuring out which is which.

[JolyB]

I don't think that the handicapping world has shifted on its axis. There have been perhaps a few more perplexing results than normal, but these things average out over time.

On today's card, there were a number of fairly predictable results and a couple that were complete headscratchers. Identifier in the Hal's Hope was one of them. Even more baffling was the 4th placed finisher in that race who went off at 128-1. The 2nd place finisher in the Derby ran an incredibly brave race - ran much better than he looked on paper.

Year in, year out post time favorites tend to win just about 33-35% of the time, depending upon the size of the field. I think that's about what we have been seeing - today was a bit under that, but the fields were very competitive so that is no surprise. I felt that the ML was somewhat off today, with a number of 8-1 or 10-1 choices in the ML in fact going off quite a bit lower than that. The bettors seem to get it right more often than the linemaker.

There are always going to be results that make no sense and horses that on paper should win but find a way to get beaten. I guess that's why successful handicappers always seek value in their plays, knowing that they have to get a good price when they win, because they are going to lose many more times than they win. The trick is winning often enough at a good price to overcome the #$%&* takeout.

[Real Quiet]

I have always believed in the theory of chaos. If the favorite is going to win a certain percentage of the time you have to find overlays underneath. Fact of the matter is I cannot pick winners and make a profit. Ruffian and Roaming can because they are not swayed by the odds.
On another tangent will there be any tracks left running?

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

I have always believed in the theory of chaos. If the favorite is going to win a certain percentage of the time you have to find overlays underneath. Fact of the matter is I cannot pick winners and make a profit. Ruffian and Roaming can because they are not swayed by the odds.
On another tangent will there be any tracks left running?

Looks like Oaklawn will keep running unless things get a whole lot worse here. I really don't know what the number of Covid 19 cases are here at the moment.

I think you are right in your observation about finding overlays underneath. I have thought that for the last 3 or 4 contests, but like a lot of other people can't seem to break out of my comfort zone so resort to my usual type of play or something totally ridiculous like a Super High 5, which I really didn't intend to play until I saw all the scratches. I still think a SH5 can be hit in a smaller field like 8 or 9 horses, but not 12.

[cal828]

419 cases in the whole state with 26 deaths which is probably a pretty small number compared to other places I'm guessing. Hard to tell whether Oaklawn will continue.

[Alli]

Don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, but I read an article saying that if your number of cases divided by the number of those tested is above 6-7%, you can be sure that there are a lot more people walking around with the virus. Virginia has 890 cases with 10609 tests, which would work out to 8.3%. Arkansas has 421 with 3448 tested. That's 12.2% Be careful out there.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Alli

Don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, but I read an article saying that if your number of cases divided by the number of those tested is above 6-7%, you can be sure that there are a lot more people walking around with the virus. Virginia has 890 cases with 10609 tests, which would work out to 8.3%. Arkansas has 421 with 3448 tested. That's 12.2% Be careful out there.

I'm sure you're right. Without universal testing no way to have an accurate picture and unfortunately there aren't enough tests or masks or ventilators or anything else needed to fight the virus. I am pretty much a hermit anyway and haven't been out except to get groceries and pick-up my meds and to try to score the ever elusive TP. Was beginning to think the President was going to have to come down and throw us some, but that possibility was pretty remote since we don't represent a lot of votes out here in redneckville. I just returned from town on a trip to get my meds and stopped off at WalMart and actually found a few rolls of TP. I couldn't believe it. Kinda felt like I was stealing something. Looked around to see if anybody else saw it too and was going to offer to fight me for it, but there were no takers so I grabbed it and got out of there as fast as I could.