Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Why would I possibly admit or think I am wrong when you have presented zero evidence to substantiate you rail bias claim?
Look at Strike Silver. He's not even a speed horse these days and he goes out there in :44 2/5 and only gets beat by 2 lengths. If there was no speed bias he would have lost by at least triple that margin, setting those suicide fractions. In that same race, Nitrous was very wide, out in the middle of the track and only got beat by a neck. So I guess if it wasn't for the supposed rail bias, Nitrous would have won. I actually bet on both those horses and lost both bets because I bet Strike Silver to win and place (he ran 4th), but only bet Nitrous to win.
As I said before, if you think there are inside/outside biases and you think you are good at spotting them, then by all means include it in your handicapping. I personally don't think they happen often (and probably never at Belmont with their sophisticated testing equipment). But even if they do happen, I think they are very difficult to spot (unlike speed biases), at least for me. So I'm not going to look for them and I'm not going to include them in my handicapping. If it works for you, then by all means use it.
Anyway, this debate is getting old. I'll give you the last word.
|
You must have been psyched when Silver Strike went out there to the lead quickly at 30-1 and the other Ortiz grabbed a hold of Complexity instead of continuing up the gold rail to the lead.
Derby day = gold rail
Preakness = gold rail
Belmont = gold rail
They all soup up the rail on the big days looking for headlines. Someday Belmont will get that 2:24 they’re looking to get.
06-10-2019, 11:39 PM
Threaded Mode