A Question concerning Belmont ROI

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

If you do it for fun or profit please post your picks here just to see how it could turn out.

OK, RQ - you talked me into it - as you can see, it didn't take very much persuasion. This is definitely NOT my ROI, and I'm probably not going to play it for profit since I'm concerned that there are a couple of other viable contenders I couldn't include. The more I looked at the True North and the Woody Stephens, the tougher they appeared. But, within the constraints of a $200 bankroll, here are my A and B tickets. We'll see how it works out. Very dependent on Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan. I think he merits it.

Ticket #1: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,8,9 // 1,2,3,4,7 // 8 // 9,10 = $120
Ticket #2: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,9 // 2,3,4,7 // 10 // 9,10 = $76.80

Totals: $120 + $76.80 = $196.80

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

OK, RQ - you talked me into it - as you can see, it didn't take very much persuasion. This is definitely NOT my ROI, and I'm probably not going to play it for profit since I'm concerned that there are a couple of other viable contenders I couldn't include. The more I looked at the True North and the Woody Stephens, the tougher they appeared. But, within the constraints of a $200 bankroll, here are my A and B tickets. We'll see how it works out. Very dependent on Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan. I think he merits it.

Ticket #1: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,8,9 // 1,2,3,4,7 // 8 // 9,10 = $120
Ticket #2: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,9 // 2,3,4,7 // 10 // 9,10 = $76.80

Totals: $120 + $76.80 = $196.80

All I can say is, this is why I call you the professor. Good luck but are playing this with real money? If you nail it and you didn't you'll be kicking yourself all the way to Boston and back.

[cal828]

Here is my stab at it and no I'm not playing for real either and not my entry in this week's contest.

3,7,8//4,6,8,9//1,4,9//2,3,9//8//6,7,8,9,10=$108

3,7,8//4,6,7,9//2,4,9//2,3,9//8//5,6,7,10=$86.40

[JolyB]

I know what you mean, Don Guido. But, I tried to keep this play within our $200 ROI limit just to see how it would work. I'm not entirely comfortable that I have enough coverage to have a good level of confidence. On the other hand, I went 5 deep in the Woody Stephens, and am sure that there are many good handicappers who would be looking at Mind Control as a single. If Mind Control does win, it would dramatically reduce the overall payoff and make me feel very foolish for including such coverage. The multi leg wagers are challenges, but they sure can cause you to second guess yourself.

And all of this is without knowing what the scratches are going to be.

[JolyB]

In the Gold Cup, the second leg of the sequence, #3 Amade came from off of the pace (they went the first mile in 1:43.66, so I use the term pace loosely) to outkick #6 Arklow for the win. Neither Cal nor I had him on our tickets, so all of that effort is in the shredder. That's one of the reasons that I don't invest $$ in pick 6 sequences, except perhaps on mandatory payout days.

Cal, sorry it didn't work out for you either. I appreciate your gameness in putting up a ticket with me. It provided a very interesting comparison. I wouldn't be surprised if you told me that the winner was the last horse that you decided to exclude from your sequence. That was certainly my case.

I thought that things were going to go well when Do Share was a late scratch in the True North, and then Catalina Cruiser won as the PTF, so I had two live wagers going, not just one. But that didn't last very long.

Onward.

[cal828]

I probably will miss other legs of the thing too, but I think that 2nd leg was the one that I had the least confidence in. Can be fun to play, but so hard to hit a pick 6, I hardly ever play one for real.