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[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

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Does that give you a better understanding of it?

very much so, it was sort of what I thought --

so those three numbers in the "set" are always the horse's last three races, correct?

so if the horse's last three are the (12-12-17), but his best figure was four races back, when he ran a 9.....the percentages only relate to the horse running back to, or better than a 12, right? They don't worry about the best lifetime figure -- just the percentage likelihood that the horse will run back to, or near the 12 (the best figure in the recent three-start set), correct?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

so those three numbers in the "set" are always the horse's last three races, correct?

Yes

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

so if the horse's last three are the (12-12-17), but his best figure was four races back, when he ran a 9.....the percentages only relate to the horse running back to, or better than a 12, right? They don't worry about the best lifetime figure -- just the percentage likelihood that the horse will run back to, or near the 12 (the best figure in the recent three-start set), correct?

the 9 would be considered his top and those percentages would be based on 9 being the top. The '12' would be an off and the 17 would be an 'X'

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

the 9 would be considered his top and those percentages would be based on 9 being the top. The '12' would be an off and the 17 would be an 'X'

So when a horse runs in the BC Sprint and is then running in $5K claimers several years later it will still be based on the horse running to his lifetime best?

[SniperSB23]

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

i'm confused about that as well -- what if the horse ran a 1 three years ago?

Does the "top" percentage speak to running a 1 or a 5? The percentage line won't show that 1 as his "prev top" -- there were several at HAW yesterday like that.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

26% chance that he runs a number better then 5^2

[Scav]

Get Shake you Down's numbers, which shoudl be available for today. and See what his 'Prev Top' number is. I think that should be his career top

[sumitas]

where was entered and in what race ?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

Get Shake you Down's numbers, which shoudl be available for today. and See what his 'Prev Top' number is. I think that should be his career top

Just checked it and that is correct, he was actually running very well early this year though. He had a 1% chance of running a career best today if he didn't scratch!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So when a horse runs in the BC Sprint and is then running in $5K claimers several years later it will still be based on the horse running to his lifetime best?

I 'think' the answer to this is Yes. Steve will be able to confirm