TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Hopefully the stretch is full of horses not banging into each other. We don't need any DQ's.

Originally Posted by richard burch

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Have we had any recently? Can't recall.

I worry more about a disaster at the first turn. 20 horses are trying to get a position that does not leave them either hopelessly outside or, especially in the case of the inside 3 or 4, squeezed back behind a wall of flying dirt. And with so much at stake, the riders are likely to take chances. I hold my breath every year.

IMO, the entries should be reduced to 14. It would make it a little more likely that the best horse would win the race. More importantly, it would make a catastrophic event much less likely.

Here are the horses that would not have made the race this year, had the limit been 14:

15. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado ($597,200)
16. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham ($273,347)
17. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. ($192,000)
18. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez ($647,500)
19. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana ($350,000)
20. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Joel Rosario ($246,000)

Do these horses belong in a race that includes Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible, Bolt D'Oro, Magnum Moon, Good Magic, and the rest of the top 9 or 10 point earners? Sure, one or more of horses 15-20 could make a big jump forward and finish in the top 5 of the Derby, but the downside far outweighs that slim possibility, IMO.