TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Back in Ireland, will ship very late like O'Brien runners normally do.

not my preference,.......... boy this horse has a lot of frequent flier miles.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by richard burch

not my preference,.......... boy this horse has a lot of frequent flier miles.

Well he did it before the BCJ Turf and to an even farther time zone that KY. He obviously did well in Dubai (which my googling tells me is 3 hrs difference from Ireland). Clearly being on a plane for awhile doesn't put him off. Neither does a bit of time difference.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Well he did it before the BCJ Turf and to an even farther time zone that KY. He obviously did well in Dubai (which my googling tells me is 3 hrs difference from Ireland). Clearly being on a plane for awhile doesn't put him off. Neither does a bit of time difference.

It's about a 7.5 hour flight from Dublin to Dubai, and probably only about an hour or so more to where he'll be landing in the US. An extra 2 hours difference in time, however.

I don't remember exactly when they arrived in Dubai but it was very late (possibly Tuesday). At least on Thursday morning, I watched all Coolmore runners do a very slow walk around the track followed by a very easy jog. Don't expect to see much from him in Louisville before the race.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Well he did it before the BCJ Turf and to an even farther time zone that KY. He obviously did well in Dubai (which my googling tells me is 3 hrs difference from Ireland). Clearly being on a plane for awhile doesn't put him off. Neither does a bit of time difference.

Mendelssohn scares me. I'm sitting on a hefty "All Others" bet from Future Wager Pool 2 (and a bet 1/5 as big from Pool 3, which I've mentally kissed goodbye). With Justify and Magnum Moon, plus about 9 other Derby entrants in my Pool 2 "stable", I should be feeling pretty confident. But there's no telling how good Mendelssohn might be, and as Merlinsky said, the horse has already shown he's a good shipper. I don't see how people can leave him off their exotics tickets simply because less accomplished Dubai invaders have failed in the past.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Mendelssohn scares me. I'm sitting on a hefty "All Others" bet from Future Wager Pool 2 (and a bet 1/5 as big from Pool 3, which I've mentally kissed goodbye). With Justify and Magnum Moon, plus about 9 other Derby entrants in my Pool 2 "stable", I should be feeling pretty confident. But there's no telling how good Mendelssohn might be, and as Merlinsky said, the horse has already shown he's a good shipper. I don't see how people can leave him off their exotics tickets simply because less accomplished Dubai invaders have failed in the past.

Yeah Mendelssohn's not the same as the other attempted conquerors, and if people just use past UAE Derby stats, it's misleading. With his obvious ability and with that breeding it's a potential coronation waiting to happen. If he wins he might not walk back to the barn, they might carry him. Now you can say the same with Justify really. There's an opportunity to see something special from multiple horses. This year's so packed with good ones I might be rooting for any other time, and I'll still be happy if they make it. Seems to be a really nice crop. Even the ones who can't get the distance can easily be heard from in the future. Magnum Moon and Audible have to show me that, not only can they get 10 furlongs, they can do it in a relatively straight line.

Hopefully the stretch is full of horses not banging into each other. We don't need any DQ's.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Yeah Mendelssohn's not the same as the other attempted conquerors, and if people just use past UAE Derby stats, it's misleading. With his obvious ability and with that breeding it's a potential coronation waiting to happen. If he wins he might not walk back to the barn, they might carry him. Now you can say the same with Justify really. There's an opportunity to see something special from multiple horses. This year's so packed with good ones I might be rooting for any other time, and I'll still be happy if they make it. Seems to be a really nice crop. Even the ones who can't get the distance can easily be heard from in the future. Magnum Moon and Audible have to show me that, not only can they get 10 furlongs, they can do it in a relatively straight line.

Hopefully the stretch is full of horses not banging into each other. We don't need any DQ's.

Have we had any recently? Can't recall.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Hopefully the stretch is full of horses not banging into each other. We don't need any DQ's.

Originally Posted by richard burch

[/b][/i]
Have we had any recently? Can't recall.

I worry more about a disaster at the first turn. 20 horses are trying to get a position that does not leave them either hopelessly outside or, especially in the case of the inside 3 or 4, squeezed back behind a wall of flying dirt. And with so much at stake, the riders are likely to take chances. I hold my breath every year.

IMO, the entries should be reduced to 14. It would make it a little more likely that the best horse would win the race. More importantly, it would make a catastrophic event much less likely.

Here are the horses that would not have made the race this year, had the limit been 14:

15. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado ($597,200)
16. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham ($273,347)
17. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. ($192,000)
18. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez ($647,500)
19. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana ($350,000)
20. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Joel Rosario ($246,000)

Do these horses belong in a race that includes Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible, Bolt D'Oro, Magnum Moon, Good Magic, and the rest of the top 9 or 10 point earners? Sure, one or more of horses 15-20 could make a big jump forward and finish in the top 5 of the Derby, but the downside far outweighs that slim possibility, IMO.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I worry more about a disaster at the first turn. 20 horses are trying to get a position that does not leave them either hopelessly outside or, especially in the case of the inside 3 or 4, squeezed back behind a wall of flying dirt. And with so much at stake, the riders are likely to take chances. I hold my breath every year.

IMO, the entries should be reduced to 14. It would make it a little more likely that the best horse would win the race. More importantly, it would make a catastrophic event much less likely.

Here are the horses that would not have made the race this year, had the limit been 14:

15. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado ($597,200)
16. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham ($273,347)
17. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. ($192,000)
18. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez ($647,500)
19. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana ($350,000)
20. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Joel Rosario ($246,000)

Do these horses belong in a race that includes Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible, Bolt D'Oro, Magnum Moon, Good Magic, and the rest of the top 9 or 10 point earners? Sure, one or more of horses 15-20 could make a big jump forward and finish in the top 5 of the Derby, but the downside far outweighs that slim possibility, IMO.

There are many people who like one of thoses horses (at least 15, 16, 17) to hit the board. Beyond that, would Giacomo or Mind That Bird have made the filed at 14?

Traffic on the first turn is a legit concern, but less so in a race with real pace--they string out in time with pace. And most years there is enough pace to avoid that.

Aside from the Debty (20) and Preakness (16), are there other stakes races in the US or Canada run with bigger fields than 14? My old brain refuses to remember.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Well he did it before the BCJ Turf and to an even farther time zone that KY. He obviously did well in Dubai (which my googling tells me is 3 hrs difference from Ireland). Clearly being on a plane for awhile doesn't put him off. Neither does a bit of time difference.

I'm sticking with him. Just hope he gets a good post.