What does it take to make a living at punting?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Shadowroll After my most recent post, it is with some trepidation that I again wade into these waters, but I have an solid opinion here and posess a thick skin. You seemed sincere with your second post, so here goes. I would recommend a two pronged approach, one geographical, the other pragmatic.

My two cents says, playing the major tracks on either coast would quickly end your quest. The intrarace, vertical plays would be few and far between and heavily taxed*, and the horizontal bets ( pick threes, fours etc.) would prove too expensive. That is, no matter what you spent, you would be a small fish in a very big pool. Logic dictates a move to the midwest!

Welcome to the land of Churchill Downs, Arlington Park, Keeneland, Oaklawn and the Fairgrounds. This arena contains contentious full fields, at least fifty trainers with twenty year careers, excellent main tracks and challenging turf configurations. A year round playground brimming with opportunity and mostly void of the big money wiseguys, whose capital is an ongoing, distinct threat to your bankroll. Case closed.

Practicality requires selecting a pool and the pick four is an easy decision. I would guess the average $1 pick four for these tracks approaches $3,000.

When I posted my earnings the other day, a few forumites, who do not know me from Adam, were flabbergasted and disputed my claims. None, did the five minutes or so of research, that would have convinced them that my claims were valid. The fact that the bets were all posted on a nationwide forum did little to sway their opinion. They did not take into account, in fact a few strongly disputed, that I am a damn good capper. But the point here is ; the math eluded them.

For instance, assume you bet forty pick 4's each year, at a cost of fifty bucks apiece. Two grand. Further agree to spend a few days 'cappin these wagers improving your skills, working on your weaknesses etc. Next assume a ticket structured as (4 x 2 x 3 x 2 ) and you, choose the combinations.

Assuming eight horse fields a novice capper, a group which almost of the naysayers fell into, empirically, should hit the pick 4 about ten percent of the time. That is, 4096 combinations and you have covered 48 of them.

The cash outlay is two grand. A pathetic one win a year hit rate, returns on average $3,000. Two winning pick four tickets yields $6,000. A ten percent hit rate, four winning pick four tickets nets some $12,000. You get the picture!

Personally I have no problem with the discipline angle; ninety some percent of my wagers is on pick 4's, all posted. The challenge is working on your game everyday, being disciplined, having a modicum of talent and realizing there is always someone who knows something that will help you down the road. It is a challenging, ever changing hobby for me, but beware ; I get better everyday. Hope this helps. BBB

*For instance, a trifecta or vertical bet is taxed each race, whereas a pick four is taxed once for the sequence!

I don't think the average $1 pick 4 at those tracks you mentioned is anwyhere close to $3,000. That sounds way too high. I think the number is more like $1,000-$1,500.

[horseofcourse]

I would say you need a very strong right or left leg...get really good hang time and average at least 42 yards per punt with a net average 35 yards plus I think. You'll need to punt at a big time college as well to impress pro scouts.

I honestly don't know anyone who makes a living at gambling. I'm sure there are some out there, but I don't know any.
WIth horses there is just so much information out there that didn't used to be out there. The glory days of betting horses seem to be gone.
Up until the 90's the DRF didn't publish general trainer stats, much less the detailed ones they publish now. Trainer switches would show up and they weren't published either. You culd make a score off a switch that not everyone knew about it or remembered.
Tg and rag didnt used to be mass marketed like they are now. The internet made them easy to mass market, those numbers used to be worth their weight in gold to those who had them. The DRF used to publish archaic speed figures and now they publish Beyers. Wet track, turf, and sitance lifetime pp's aer now published. You used to have an edge if you cold remember what the horse had done on those surfaces outside the races shown in the DRF. Jockey stats didn't used to be published, those little sidebar columns that tell you who is a half brother to who didn't used to be published, and even sales prices didnt used to be published.
Used to be able to save the DRF's and look up workouts and see how fast they actually were. You could go back and chck a certain date and see a horse had the 2nd fastest work out of a big group, and now that info is all in there for anyone who has 5 bucks for a DRF. Theres no more information edge, everyone has all the info that wiseguys used to work hard to keep.
Heck even trip notes have become diminished in value. Now everyone has race replays.com, brisbet, etc. You can go back and watch any race with a few mouse clicks and see what kinda trip a horse had.
You've also got sharks chasing other sharks now most of the year except on big days when you get the "sucker money" like Derby and BC.
The game has changed and its a very hard one.
I made two scores(no surprise on BC day and Derby day, they would have paid less than half that on a regular pool day) and caught a percentage of a couple nice pik-6's. Thats about it, my every day playing was definitely in the red ink, and only those few scores kept me above water, and even then just barely.
If you are gonna play full time today for a "living" you need a big bankroll, even more patience than ever before, and need to work constantly, and I mean constantly. You'd probably have to put in 100 hour weeks and still need to get lucky to win enough to be considered "a living".