'17 CROWN TRAIL THREAD: Always Dreaming; Cloud Computing; Tapwrit

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by richard burch

Already we are dismissing the horses? I think these are better than what AP faced.

Malagacy?Gunnevara? Classic Empire? Are those are weak horses? No way.

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

I tend to agree. There was so much inconsistency in the preps. That said, the combination of the major trouble that many horses encountered in the race and the difficulty of running with mud spraying toward your eyes leaves room for some of this group to come back and look much better in subsequent tries.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I tend to agree. There was so much inconsistency in the preps. That said, the combination of the major trouble that many horses encountered in the race and the difficulty of running with mud spraying toward your eyes leaves room for some of this group to come back and look much better in subsequent tries.

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

Paul, I'm mostly going on what the race chart says. The chart comments took over an hour to show up. They even put up the 13th race before adding the Derby chart. I assume the comments were the result of multiple views of the race.

Here are the ones that I thought had at least some level of excuse: (the added bold emphasis is mine)

GIRVIN, bumped and in tight at the start, settled off the pace, moved up off the rail leaving the far turn, was checked sharply and bumped in traffic near the five-sixteenths then failed to seriously recover.

TAPWRIT was forced into tight quarters by IRISH WAR CRY at the break, steadied off heels in the opening furlong, gained while being brushed between foes near the five-sixteenths, altered to the fence in the lane and kept trying.

GUNNEVERA was jammed up at the break and bumped,regrouped to save ground early, angled back out nearing the backstretch, entered the far turn five wide, brushed with TAPWRIT past the five sixteenths, came sixwide for the drive, was floated out further in mid stretch then failed to seriously to sustain.

HENCE, in tight at the break, settled well back,steadied off heels leaving the five sixteenths, swung wide for the drive but failed to muster up the needed kick.

MCCRAKEN was jostled hard soon after the break, recovered and settled four wide, gained quickly when put to pressure leaving the half
milemarker, continued on into the lane, was bumped and carried out in mid stretch then came up empty.

PATCH chased off the rail, edged up between rivals leaving the far turn, was checked and bounced around with GIRVIN near the five sixteenths causing him to lose any chance and came up empty.

IRAP was bumped when a victim of the melee soon after the break, regrouped to chase three and four wide, steadied near the five sixteenths and weakened.

A lot of this is pretty much inevitable in a 20-horse stampede. I don't think any of these trips made it impossible for a superior horse to win. And all of these horses finished 10 or more lengths behind Always Dreaming. But adding these trips to dealing with the barrage of mud in the face that all besides the front runners had to deal with, plus the fact that some of them were probably uncomfortable running on that surface, there's plenty of room IMO for some of these horses to look substantially better next time out.

[Holybull1]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

GUNNEVERA was jammed up at the break and bumped,regrouped to save ground early, angled back out nearing the backstretch, entered the far turn five wide, brushed with TAPWRIT past the five sixteenths, came sixwide for the drive, was floated out further in mid stretch then failed to seriously to sustain.

I'm hoping this leads to 20-1 next Saturday.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Holybull1

I'm hoping this leads to 20-1 next Saturday.

Gunnevera won't be 20:1. He also did not have early trouble and actually got decent position ( for him ). He was wide ( three or maybe four on the far turn....but very wide in the stretch ) which could have been an excuse, and I can understand why his fans want to give him another chance. He also might not have loved the going.

[Holybull1]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gunnevera won't be 20:1. He also did not have early trouble and actually got decent position ( for him ). He was wide ( three or maybe four on the far turn....but very wide in the stretch ) which could have been an excuse, and I can understand why his fans want to give him another chance. He also might not have loved the going.

Agreed. He was one of several horses that tipped out in the stretch and could not make up any ground, not only against the winner but the top 3.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

The following horses got crushed courtesy of Rajiv:

Sooneteer
J Boys Echo
Classic Empire
McCraken
Tapwrit

Classic Empire really ran lights out,deserves all the credit in the world.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by taxicab

The following horses got crushed courtesy of Rajiv:

Sooneteer
J Boys Echo
Classic Empire
McCraken
Tapwrit

Classic Empire really ran lights out,deserves all the credit in the world.

A wild overstatement. There was bumping. Not a single horse got "crushed."

Feel free to point out one horse that steadied even reasonably hard.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A wild overstatement. There was bumping. Not a single horse got "crushed."

Feel free to point out one horse that steadied even reasonably hard.

OK.
FYI......I didn't look at the chart of this race until after your post because I thought the demolition derby at the beginning of the race was obvious.
I'm including the chart,and then point towards the following words/phrases:
Classic Empire: "hammered off stride".
Tapwrit: "forced into tight quarters by IWC soon after the break"
McCraken: "was jostled hard soon after the break"
J Boys Echo: "forced in and jostled with foes soon after start"
Sooneteer: "steadied out of the jam up and altered towards the fence"
Irap: "was bumped when a victim of the melee soon after the break"

But my favorite is the call for IWC: bore in at the break initiating a chain reaction of trouble"


http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20170506&RN=12

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not interested in the chart. I watched the race, and particularly the start, quite a few times. Nobody got "crushed." Hyperbole is a dangerous thing.

If people rely on the chart comments in KY for their wagering decisions, they are broke.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

Well at the end of the year lets look at the top 5 finishers from the derby, preakness and belmont from this year and 2015 and see who did better.

so far we have in 2016:

always dreaming
looking at lee
battle of midway
classic empire
Practical Joke



vs.

A.P.
Firing Line
Dortmund
Frosted
Danzig Moon
Materiality