Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06

[SentToStud]

I think it's nearly impossible to make or use speed figures from a Breeders Cup day.

There's absoulutely no inter-race commonality (age/sex/dist/surf/class) so how can anyone come up with a worthwhile number? For example, how many 10F Grade 1 races does Churchill run in a year much less in a day?

I firmly believe the same logic holds for higher class races at all tracks. There are just not enough Graded Stakes races run to generate enough of a basis from which to develop meaningful final figures, much less pace figures.

I think if you look at a single track, it's FAR more likely that anybody's figs for that track are much more accurate for a $25k claiming class where there may be dozens of races in a sample size than for any Graded Stake where the class/age/etc... components of a race are very rare.

I believe in speed and pace figures. I do my own and it's a lot of work. But I play only one track so that helps. I have far greater faith in pace/final pars at the $16k N2L level than I do in those for the Graded or non-Graded stakes races at my track.

Just one Stooge's thoughts.