Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why was he moved pre-mature into the fast pace?

Because his rider wanted to take it to Flower Alley....obviously thinking that Flower Alley was the only horse who could beat him going into that race.

Even though Flower Alley ran nine or ten lengths behind Invasor, I actually thought he ran better in that race than just about anyone--as, he had his hand forced by Invasor's premature move...

But yeah, Flower Alley's a stalking type, he wasn't taken "out of his game" as much by it as Invasor was.

Yes, the mediocre Jara rode Invasor poorly, but Flower Alley was completely ineffectual. I know we have had this argument a thousand times, and I will go watch the race again, but I think Flower Alley ran for about two furlongs at most.

I know we had this argument before the Woodward, where you defended Flower Alley, and he ran like crap. Now, it may be fair that he regressed even farther for that race, but it certainly does nothing to defend his Whitney. Running a tad from the 5/8 pole to the 3/8 pole is basically meaningless.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I did say Invasor ran a MONSTER race in the Whitney...and was much more impressive than he looked on paper.

But yeah, I also thought FA ran better than his race looked on paper that day...and that opinion of mine was certainly not justified in subsequent results.

[SniperSB23]

Interesting list. I agree with most of it but would have had Strong Pretender winning the Dwyer at #2. He ran a mile and a sixteenth at a slower pace than Jazil won the Belmont in despite dealing with 3.5 less furlongs AND one less turn. Yet somehow they gave him a higher Beyer. If 1:45.25 is a 109 Beyer I would have loved to have seen what sort of figure an actual quality horse could have put up that day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Interesting list. I agree with most of it but would have had Strong Pretender winning the Dwyer at #2. He ran a mile and a sixteenth at a slower pace than Jazil won the Belmont in despite dealing with 3.5 less furlongs AND one less turn. Yet somehow they gave him a higher Beyer. If 1:45.25 is a 109 Beyer I would have loved to have seen what sort of figure an actual quality horse could have put up that day.

The track was tremendously slow that day!!!

I believe statebred allowance horses went 7 furlongs in 1:27, or something absurdly slow like that, one race prior.

Tracks obviously don't stay the same speed all the time.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track was tremendously slow that day!!!

I believe statebred allowance horses went 7 furlongs in 1:27, or something absurdly slow like that, one race prior.

Tracks obviously don't stay the same speed all the time.

I still don't buy it. It was the single biggest Beyer adjustment of all time. 32 point adjustment! 1:45 for a one turn 8.5 furlong race wouldn't be a 109 if they were running on marshmallows. I think the way Bluegrass Cat trounced him in the Haskell pretty clearly established it as a BS 109. The rest of that field was Doc Cheney, Da Stoops (way past his best distance), Regent Spirit, Dontfearthereaper, and an already toasted Keyed Entry. Pathetic.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I still don't buy it. It was the single biggest Beyer adjustment of all time. 32 point adjustment! 1:45 for a one turn 8.5 furlong race wouldn't be a 109 if they were running on marshmallows. I think the way Bluegrass Cat trounced him in the Haskell pretty clearly established it as a BS 109. The rest of that field was Doc Cheney, Da Stoops (way past his best distance), Regent Spirit, Dontfearthereaper, and an already toasted Keyed Entry. Pathetic.

I'm not a big fan of that number either, though a desperate person could ultimately use the Super Derby to defend it, but in fairness it was an incredibly tricky day, and I think all figure makers struggled mightily with it.

Except, I guess, for Ragozin, who doesn't believe in split variants.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Bluegrass Cat's bias aided win in the Haskell almost made the list.

I believe the horse breaking from the extreme outside post won just about every race that day....JRV was able to give BGC a very sweet trip from it.

Prado, on the other hand, looked like he rode a pathetic race on the surface, but he was only trying so desperatley to get SC to the outside because he was smart enough to know where the much better footing seemed to be.

While, no one can rationally say that Bluegrass Cat wasn't the best horse in that race...his performance in victory wasn't nearly as good as many thought.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bluegrass Cat's bias aided win in the Haskell almost made the list.

I believe the horse breaking from the extreme outside post won just about every race that day....JRV was able to give BGC a very sweet trip from it.

Prado, on the other hand, looked like he rode a pathetic race on the surface, but he was only trying so desperatley to get SC to the outside because he was smart enough to know where the much better footing seemed to be.

While, no one can rationally say that Bluegrass Cat wasn't the best horse in that race...his performance in victory wasn't nearly as good as many thought.

Still he beat Strong Pretender by more lengths in the Haskell than Strong Pretender beat Doc Cheney by in the Dwyer yet the Dwyer got a higher figure than the Haskell. I might have to move that one up to #1 on my list.