New Zealand Racing, 2015-16

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GET THAT JIVE

gelding, Street Sense-Cobbley

Trainers: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (Mongolian Khan 2015)
Jockey: Opie Bosson (Mongolian Khan 2015)

6 starts
1 win
3 seconds
2 thirds

NZ$57,250

2nd Great Northern Guineas
2nd Foal Stakes
3rd Waikato Guineas
3rd Avondale Guineas

He hasn't won a race since his debut, be's never finished further back than third, which makes him one of the most consistent horses in this group.

He's got the same owner-jockey combination as last year's winner Mongolian Khan (plus the same owners as Turn Me Loose!), and I love how strong he's been looking towards the end of his races. I think he'll get the distance.

Odds: 6

[my miss storm cat]

Oh thank you!!! I just assumed you wouldn't have time for it this year and am very grateful and excited to see the rest!

This is pretty much the only racing I have followed lately and it always takes me a little bit to catch up so hooray... very excited to see the others and THANK YOU!!!!!

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No worries! I enjoy it too.

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VALLEY GIRL

filly, Mastercraftsman-Leigh Valley

Trainers: Donna Logan (Habibi 2013) & Chris Gibbs
Jockey: Danielle Johnson (no Derby wins)

6 starts
3 wins
0 seconds
1 third

NZ$236,125

1st Herbie Dyke Stakes (G1 against older horses)
3rd Eight Carat Classic
4th Trevor Eagle Memorial
5th Royal Stakes

My opinion is that this filly's win in the Herbie Dyke was the best performance all season by any of the horses in this Derby field. She was amazing that day.

Her trainers have reported that she's made excellent progress since that win, and they would know - in the last three years the Logan team has gone to the Derby with Habibi (1st 2013), Rising Romance (2nd 2014) and Volkstok'n'barrell (2nd 2015).

We know this horse has the talent, and I believe she has the stamina as well. In an even group, Valley Girl is my top choice for this year's Derby.

Odds: 8

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BRIGHTON

colt, Buffalo Man-Gore Bay

Trainer: Nigel Tiley (Ring The Bell 1980 as jockey, Look Who's Talking 1994 as trainer)
Jockey: Lee Tiley

11 starts
2 wins
1 second
2 thirds

NZ$93,900

1st Champagne Stakes
2nd Avondale Guineas
3rd John Grigg Stakes
4th New Zealand 2000 Guineas
5th Foal Stakes
6th Karaka Mile
7th Bonecrusher Stakes
8th Great Northern Guineas
11th Wanganui Guineas

I'm not sure what to think about this horse. He's run quite a few bad or disappointing races, but some of his performances have been sensational. Did you see his finish in the Avondale Guineas?! I think the distance will be fine for him, and if he can repeat that Avondale Guineas run, he could be a great chance in this race.

Odds: 8

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PROVOCATIVE

filly, Zabeel-Betwixt

Trainer: Tony Pike (no Derby wins)
Jockey: Leith Innes (Wahid 2006)

4 starts
2 wins
0 seconds
0 thirds

NZ$18,275

6th Avondale Guineas

Her win at Ellerslie two starts ago was unbelievable. Front-runners were winning that day, but she came from the back and blew them away.

I thought she would be hard to beat in the Avondale Guineas, but she got a long way back and had too much work to do in the stretch. But she was finishing well, and she is definitely one of the leading chances in this race.

Zabeel has sired three Derby winners - Zonda (1997), Hades (1999) and St Reims (2002). This is the first Derby since the legendary sire died in September 2015.

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Excellent racing so far today, particularly at Matamata. Aotearower was amazing! She deserved that after all her unlucky races recently.

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RAGHU

colt, Showcasing-Fantasy World

Trainer: Tony Pike (no Derby wins)
Jockey: Michael McNab (no Derby wins)

8 starts
2 wins
3 seconds
2 thirds

NZ$178,050

1st Karaka 3YO Mile
2nd Waikato Guineas
3rd Avondale Guineas

What a tough horse. When he comes around the home turn and the others start running at him, it always looks like he's going to drop out and finish way back. But he never does. He refuses to surrender, he keeps fighting and he comes back. He is sensational to watch.

But there has to be some doubt over his stamina. His sire Showcasing is known for very speedy two-year-olds, and his running style doesn't lend itself to such a gruelling trip. But he's another horse who keeps proving us wrong.

Odds: 12