Good Lord another pletcher freak

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

A whole lot of very good three year olds have come out of the Sanford...

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

A whole lot of very good three year olds have come out of the Sanford...

It sounds like they are talking about this horse that won today and the odds are against him even making the derby. Some really nice horses to come out of those 2yr old stake races at Saratoga but can't recall any ever winning the derby. Afleet Alex did win the Hopeful, but not the derby.

I think these two year olds should just race when they are ready, but should have some time between races. You have to remember though that the key is to just give them foundation and they need races to get it. I have always thought 3 races as a 2yr old and 3 races as a 3yr old prior to the derby are what they need.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

It sounds like they are talking about this horse that won today and the odds are against him even making the derby. Some really nice horses to come out of those 2yr old stake races at Saratoga but can't recall any ever winning the derby. Afleet Alex did win the Hopeful, but not the derby.

I think these two year olds should just race when they are ready, but should have some time between races. You have to remember though that the key is to just give them foundation and they need races to get it. I have always thought 3 races as a 2yr old and 3 races as a 3yr old prior to the derby are what they need.

The odds are against every two year old making it to the Derby. So is the nature of the game.

I don't really care that Afleet Alex didn't win the Derby. He won two of the three legs, and was only a length short in the Derby. I was more so making a point to earlier threads than to yours anyway. Someone said that horses that started early couldn't go 10 furlongs, and Afleet Alex definitely proved that wrong. He was the first horse I thought of off the top of my head.

You do make some really good points in your posts.

[zippyneedsawin]

Man, what a bunch of bickering. Whatever. I saw Circular Quay's race.. AWESOME.. Definately a 2yo to watch this summer... and maybe beyond ( How dare I say that!? )

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

I was just pointing out that debuting in June at five furlongs has led to a derby winner in 3 of the last 14 years. So it would appear that sometimes races in June do have Derby implications and these horses are not too fragile.

Earlier in the thread people implied that it was ridiculous to think about the derby in June because Derby winners never debut so early. It does happen.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I was just pointing out that debuting in June at five furlongs has led to a derby winner in 3 of the last 14 years. So it would appear that sometimes races in June do have Derby implications and these horses are not too fragile.

Earlier in the thread people implied that it was ridiculous to think about the derby in June because Derby winners never debut so early. It does happen.

I read that and disagree too, but I think these 2yr old races in June often mean nothing because speed is just so important in them. The other problem with them in there is no way of really determining what they are beating. I don't think you can tell anything from a 2yr old other than they may be good horses. These horses grow so much over the winter and some even in the 6-8 weeks before the derby that they are often completely different animals. The sport is so odd now with people paying 16 million for Forestry colts that they are making the breed into a bunch of animals that are designed to run real quick early and break down. These horses that start this soon seem to have really short 3yr old careers.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

I read that and disagree too, but I think these 2yr old races in June often mean nothing because speed is just so important in them. The other problem with them in there is no way of really determining what they are beating. I don't think you can tell anything from a 2yr old other than they may be good horses. These horses grow so much over the winter and some even in the 6-8 weeks before the derby that they are often completely different animals. The sport is so odd now with people paying 16 million for Forestry colts that they are making the breed into a bunch of animals that are designed to run real quick early and break down. These horses that start this soon seem to have really short 3yr old careers.

I agree but would add that often 2YO races mean nothing in other months as well. Thats the whole point. Most of the 2YO races are meaningless relative to the Derby. But somewhere along the way during the next six months there will be a debut by next years derby winner. It's fun to try to be one of the sharpies that noticed him right away and picked it out as a horse with loads of talent.

Remember there are less than eleven months remaining to get it right! LOL.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I agree but would add that often 2YO races mean nothing in other months as well. Thats the whole point. Most of the 2YO races are meaningless relative to the Derby. But somewhere along the way during the next six months there will be a debut by next years derby winner. It's fun to try to be one of the sharpies that noticed him right away and picked it out as a horse with loads of talent.

Remember there are less than eleven months remaining to get it right! LOL.

I agree with you ArlJim. Out of all the Thoroughbreds born every year, only about 20 of them even make it to the Derby. Just 20.

That is why, for me, it is not just the two year olds that go on to win the Derby that I am looking. It is also those that make impacts in big stakes races later on as well.