Santa Anita Showvivor starts Sept 26

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

147 now at 9 out of 9, including bigrun, jwkniska, and sgtennis. Arletta must have skipped a day, because she is at 8 of 8.

Interestingly, one of the players with 9 of 9 show picks, roro308, had a 16-1 shot come in for a $35.60 payoff. That seems pretty weird! Maybe he/she started out going for highest win payoff, and then switched? roro308 is also in a 5-way tie for the lead in most wins, 6.

Today

Race 1

#4 Kelly With A Twist

Also thought roro big payoff strange, probably like you say..


16 bigrun my rank..?? maybe because of 4 wins and 4 place? tied with 16 others..

[Dunbar]

Here's another Showvivor oddity. One of the 5 players tied for first in biggest win payout with $78.80 has 5 wins total, has an ended show streak of 6 straight, and has a current show streak of 2 straight.

It's hard to put together a strategy that would produce those results, unless his last 2 longshots (trying to best $78.80) managed to hit the board. None of my 5 longshots, after my show streak ended, have hit the board.

Meanwhile, it looks like the show streak field is down to 60 with 11/11. A surprising number have 10/10.

[ranger5830]

Yesterday was probably the toughest day of the contest so far, as both of the top two picks were out of the money, so now with six days left there are only 14 perfect streaks left, as well as another 12 players who are one behind with active streaks of 12 in a row. I think it is certainly possible that nobody makes it through the meeting with a perfect streak.

As for my strategy, I had been trying to stay competitive in the "most wins" category by picking less obvious short priced horses, for instance yesterday I had the 2-1 favorite in the last race, 6 horse field, and only 12 people picked him. He didn't win, but I feel like it was a good pick seeing how I don't have a show streak to worry about.

Many people are playing for the big longshot, yesterdays least likely winner on paper had 49 picks for him. So I would think it would be wise to try and find sneaky longshots, maybe 15-1 morning line shots and hope they drift up.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Many people are playing for the big longshot, yesterdays least likely winner on paper had 49 picks for him. So I would think it would be wise to try and find sneaky longshots, maybe 15-1 morning line shots and hope they drift up.

I tried that strategy for the first time yesterday. I took a 30-1 shot when there was a 50-1 shot in the same race. I was really ticked at myself for being "cute" when I saw that the 50-1 shot came in. I'm much less bothered by it now that I see I would have shared the $500 with 16 other players.

Only 8 left with 14/14 show streaks. One of the 8, Sacatbox, is also just one behind in Win Streak and Total Wins.

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I tried that strategy for the first time yesterday. I took a 30-1 shot when there was a 50-1 shot in the same race. I was really ticked at myself for being "cute" when I saw that the 50-1 shot came in. I'm much less bothered by it now that I see I would have shared the $500 with 16 other players.

Only 8 left with 14/14 show streaks. One of the 8, Sacatbox, is also just one behind in Win Streak and Total Wins.

Sorry if I talked you off a winner, but if it makes you feel any better you wouldn't have even gotten 1/16th of $500, the tiebreaker for highest win payout is longest show streak, and player kriskring3, who picked the longshot winner as his/her pick yesterday, previously had a show streak of 8 in a row, which gives him a clear lead over everyone he is tied with, seeing how there are only 5 race days left, and none of the other players have an active streak higher than 3.

Now that the bar has been raised to $97.20 it's going to be a lot harder to find a sneaky horse that will pay that much, you just have to take the longshot and hope for the best, maybe one can find a 20-1 in a big field that gets overlooked.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Sorry if I talked you off a winner, but if it makes you feel any better you wouldn't have even gotten 1/16th of $500, the tiebreaker for highest win payout is longest show streak, and player kriskring3, who picked the longshot winner as his/her pick yesterday, previously had a show streak of 8 in a row, which gives him a clear lead over everyone he is tied with, seeing how there are only 5 race days left, and none of the other players have an active streak higher than 3.

Now that the bar has been raised to $97.20 it's going to be a lot harder to find a sneaky horse that will pay that much, you just have to take the longshot and hope for the best, maybe one can find a 20-1 in a big field that gets overlooked.

No, I came upon the strategy independently. I hadn't seen your post when I made the pick.

I forgot about the tiebreaker, though. That settles it for me. The intense pressure is off. No more picks for this round of Showvivor.

[Dunbar]

Last day of Showvivor, and some interesting races. None of the categories are decided yet.

Show Streak:
5 players are 18/18. If they all go 19/19, rodrodman will either win it, or split the prize with deadeye if deadeye gets a win and rodrodman doesn't.

If rodrodman and deadeye both miss with their show picks, it opens things up for the other 3 18/18's.

Win Streak:
3 players have a chance at this prize. 2 are at 6/6. But if they can't find a winner today, the prize will go to JoeCat, who has a dead streak of 6 wins, but would win on the 'most wins' tiebreaker with 12.

Total Wins:
3 players have a chance to win this, including, again, JoeCat. He and another player have 12 wins; one player has 11.

Total Places:
4 players have a chance to win a piece of this; 2 with 10 places and 2 with 9 places. Those with 9 can only get a share if neither of the top 2 picks up another place today AND they themselves pick a winner today.

Biggest Win Payout:
15 players are tied with 97.20, but only 2 have a chance at the prize. Tiebreaker is longest show streak.
kriskring3 has a dead streak of 8 and is guaranteed at least half the prize money.
catwoman has a live streak of 7/7. If she can pick a winner today, she'll tie kriskring3 on the 2nd tiebreaker, too. (most wins).
(This all assumes that the 97.20 holds up as biggest win payoff)

Clearly, I have a bit too much time on my hands this morning!