American Pharoah... what's next for our new Champion? (The Haskell)

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Coincidentally, it's the only race where a strong pace rival (or two) was in front him early and did not fold like a cheap suit, forcing him to dig into his "reserves" if you like.

That is besides when Om outran him in his debut.








The Derby was much better than the Preakness. At least in Kentucky, despite coming back down to earth, he showed some mettle when neither Firing Line nor Dortmund packed it in when he came to them. At Pimlico, he did exactly what you purport, that he simply runs horses off their feet...only he went so fast for the first 3/4s that he exhausted himself, as plain as day if you simply look at his come-home time in that race. Perhaps if a strong finisher was in there, you know, besides Tale of Verve, there might have been a different outcome. Too bad today's horsemen don't remember the plethora of Derby also-rans in the '80s and '90s that came back and reversed form at Pimlico.


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Baffert suggests AP needed the Derby and was not fit enough going into the race and that it helped get him more fit. I don't know if its true but he certainly suggested as much. The point is even the incredibly fast G1 winning 110+ wonderfully talented well bred for distance Materialty got gutted by the AP even with AP's inferior damside distance pedigree. I dont recall the BSF's Rock Hard Ten got in the Malibu or SA Derby but I dont think its was as high as the wonderfully bred gifted talented Materialty. I havent seen Firing Line or dortmund in a while I hope they come back in Travers.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Baffert suggests AP needed the Derby and was not fit enough going into the race and that it helped get him more fit. I don't know if its true but he certainly suggested as much. The point is even the incredibly fast G1 winning 110+ wonderfully talented well bred for distance Materialty got gutted by the AP even with AP's inferior damside distance pedigree. I dont recall the BSF's Rock Hard Ten got in the Malibu or SA Derby but I dont think its was as high as the wonderfully bred gifted talented Materialty. I havent seen Firing Line or dortmund in a while I hope they come back in Travers.

Freddy, any cursory glance at Todd Pletcher horses that had belated starts to their careers yet ran in the Triple Crown would suggest that Materiality won't be seen for a while, and certainly, just as in the case of Upstart in the Kentucky Derby, one should not take the performance at face value.

Of course, if neither ever appears again we might never know how accurate the Florida Derby figure is, but at least recall that Frosted was running down in Florida this winter, too.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Freddy, any cursory glance at Todd Pletcher horses that had belated starts to their careers yet ran in the Triple Crown would suggest that Materiality won't be seen for a while, and certainly, just as in the case of Upstart in the Kentucky Derby, one should not take the performance at face value.

Of course, if neither ever appears again we might never know how accurate the Florida Derby figure is, but at least recall that Frosted was running down in Florida this winter, too.

Agree on all points materialty never comes back was rushed to compete in big races could have been around if they had a morsel of patience. Frosted ran a very good Derby and an extremely solid Belmont. If you think this is all AP has to give he and will not improve he has a chance to be a worthy adversary. The chances they meet again are slim as Frosted will be favorite in Travers unless Dortmund gets on work tab soon. Keen Ice is OK but he needs a lot of things to go right and wrong for too many to be a serious player. I cant see Baffert running in Travers with AP if Dortmund is OK and back to himself. Shah is a huge client and running in and or winning the Travers would be a very important achievement for a very good colt.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Agree on all points materialty never comes back was rushed to compete in big races could have been around if they had a morsel of patience. Frosted ran a very good Derby and an extremely solid Belmont. If you think this is all AP has to give he and will not improve he has a chance to be a worthy adversary. The chances they meet again are slim as Frosted will be favorite in Travers unless Dortmund gets on work tab soon. Keen Ice is OK but he needs a lot of things to go right and wrong for too many to be a serious player. I cant see Baffert running in Travers with AP if Dortmund is OK and back to himself. Shah is a huge client and running in and or winning the Travers would be a very important achievement for a very good colt.

I doubt Dortmund enters into any equation about the rest of the year. If he returns soon it will be too soon. He is decidedly second fiddle now, the way Congaree (recall he ran a couple of post-Triple Crown races and went to the sidelines) was to Point Given. They might bring him out for something like the Pacific Classic or some second-tier Derby with a big purse, but ultimately if I were going to make presumptions I would say he is a "tired" horse and will be primed for a 4yo campaign, especially seeing how American Pharoah won't be around and Bayern almost certainly won't be showing up as a 5yo.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I doubt Dortmund enters into any equation about the rest of the year. If he returns soon it will be too soon. He is decidedly second fiddle now, the way Congaree (recall he ran a couple of post-Triple Crown races and went to the sidelines) was to Point Given. They might bring him out for something like the Pacific Classic or some second-tier Derby with a big purse, but ultimately if I were going to make presumptions I would say he is a "tired" horse and will be primed for a 4yo campaign, especially seeing how American Pharoah won't be around and Bayern almost certainly won't be showing up as a 5yo.

That sucks. I thought Dortmund he was pretty darn good

[asudevil]

Agree with Freddy on AP not running at The Spa. Bob has said many times that the surface there isn't his favorite. More likely The Haskell (Baffert Invitational).

[Kitan]

I'm hoping he comes back next year and defends his Triple Crown title.