American Pharoah... what's next for our new Champion? (The Haskell)

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Scav

I want to him race the rest of this year but would be shocked for him to ever even work again. The insurance premiums will be massive considering they will be insuring against in the shred. guessing 200k to start with 125 book max

They have to say what they are saying now but doubt Coolmore cuts that insurance check with nothing to gain, and everything to lose

My guess is a slight hip fracture, like an illum, will be the excuse.

Sadly I think this is the correct scenario...other than the injury perhaps. I think once the dust settles and the media goes away, they just turn him out for rest...and then he never comes back. We found a little heat, a swelling, a chip..something minor. Can't risk him not coming back 100%, yada yada

[DonGuido]

I'll take a Breeders Cup Classic entry and a win. But he'll have to race at least once or twice before that. I'm convinced that Zayat is true to his word and wouldn't lead the racing public and real fans on. He has this worked out with Coolmore, don't kid yourself. Zayat still owns controlling interest in him, so go figure. If I'm Mr. Zayat, wish I was tight now, I'd be very selective but run him for sure, if for nobody else but for me and my family.

Lastly, probably not though about all this, is that I don't think any of us understand how significant this horse is, how special he is and how important what he did this weekend will prove to be. We'll find out as the next few months and few years go by.

Is there any horse right now that's more worthy of all this hype? None, thank you very much. I can't wait to get in the office tomorrow and high five all those interested parties up and down the hallway and in and out offices. It will wear off soon, maybe.

[Indian Charlie]

There are incentives in place for zayat at to keep him winning. These will more than easily pay for the increased insurance premium, which is probably being paid for by Coolmore anyways.

They could make another 5 million in purses as well.

Of course, his speed figures are glacial like, so he'll probably never win again.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

There are incentives in place for zayat at to keep him winning. These will more than easily pay for the increased insurance premium, which is probably being paid for by Coolmore anyways.

They could make another 5 million in purses as well.

Of course, his speed figures are glacial like, so he'll probably never win again.

Huh???

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Huh???

his speed figures, particularly beyers, have been comically and idiotically low.

I'm being facetious about him never winning again.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

his speed figures, particularly beyers, have been comically and idiotically low.

I'm being facetious about him never winning again.

I am one that does believe in speed figures, but I believe in a realistic manner. They are never the be all and end all on handicapping a horse. There are other factors to take into account, in particular whether a horse is likely to increase or decrease off a certain speed figure in a particular scenario and whether the figure is likely to be accurate under the particular circumstances, trip, dynamics, etc. I find it interesting that the 105 that Beyer has assigned and the 128 that Craig has is likely to be much more accurate due to a 1 1/2 mile race being run earlier in the card.

Having said that, I don't have handy the fractions of Smarty Jones' Belmont but I am pretty certain it went much faster than AP's did early on and taking into factors overall, particularly the dynamics that Smarty faced in the Belmont versus AP on Saturday, I believe that Smarty ran a better race. I also think that AP has a lot of room for improvement off what he has run thus far but only time will tell if the connections are true that he will continue racing.

But at the end of the day, I think if the Breeder's Cup were one month from today, Shared Belief would easily beat AP right now. A race or two down the line and improvement by AP by November might change my opinion, but I believe the evidence we have right now supports that conclusion.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pointman

I am one that does believe in speed figures, but I believe in a realistic manner. They are never the be all and end all on handicapping a horse. There are other factors to take into account, in particular whether a horse is likely to increase or decrease off a certain speed figure in a particular scenario and whether the figure is likely to be accurate under the particular circumstances, trip, dynamics, etc. I find it interesting that the 105 that Beyer has assigned and the 128 that Craig has is likely to much more accurate due to a 1 1/2 mile race being run earlier in the card.

Having said that, I don't have handy the fractions of Smarty Jones' Belmont but I am pretty certain it went much faster than AP's did early on and taking factors overall, particularly the dynamics that Smarty faced in the Belmont versus AP on Saturday, I believe that Smarty ran a better race. I also think that AP has a lot of room for improvement off what he has run thus far but only time will tell if the connections are true that he will continue racing.

But at the end of the day, I think if the Breeder's Cup were one month from today, Shared Belief would easily beat AP right now. A race or two down the line and improvement by AP by November might change my opinion, but I believe the evidence we have right now supports that conclusion.

it's not like I have a low opinion on shared belief, but if the bc was in a month,sb would likely still be recuperating in Washington.

I still don't know how good AP is, as he is still improving, while winning easily, except for the derby, where I've felt all along he was either short or had an off day.

The odds of it happening are highly unlikely, but a bcc featuring sb, AP and possibly kentuckian would be freaking awesome. I'd be completely at a loss as to who would win. Throw honor code into the mix and that would be the most exciting race in ages.

As to the result of the Brooklyn, to quote my favorite star trek line, irrelevant, irrelevant, irrelevant!

I get what you are saying about that, but number zealots should learn to use and trust their senses, especially their vision.

Can't these people see that when he runs his normal race, other horses that try to run with or to him get run off their feet?

It's incomprehensible to me how anyone can't see the improvement from each leg of the triple crown to the next. His derby, on paper, was better than his Preakness? That is an absurdity of biblical proportions. His Belmont barely better than his Preakness? The Beyer clan needs to retire, that opinion being so so bad.

It's as if a lightly raced young horse racing himself into top shape cannot improve from one race to another? Is that the implication?

Smarty ran an awesome race indeed. It was Herculean in effort. The thing is though, was that he ran as good a race as was possible. Pharoah? He could have been asked even earlier and his win would have been even more dramatic. He toyed with his opponents in a manner similar to what fupeg did to the deputy at Santa Anita. They both schooled their foes and could have won more impressively.

Therefore, I'd say AP was more impressive of the two.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

his speed figures, particularly beyers, have been comically and idiotically low.

I'm being facetious about him never winning again.

His BSF's are a function of math and science not creative license or subjective opinion. I agree as do some other prominent fig makers that the Beyer's methodology in routes seems to be declining in routes, I dont begin to understand why he is of opinion horses around the country save GP are getting slower. I dont know. I do know Andy Beyer knows WAY more about horses and racing then I do in fact probably more then everyone but a select few. He like all of us gets it wrong in a sport that is incredibly humbling, that hardily mitigates his brilliance as a capper and historian of the sport.

Do I think Coach Inge would have been competitive in the Belmont saturday? Not a chance but what do I know

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

His BSF's are a function of math and science not creative license or subjective opinion. I agree as do some other prominent fig makers that the Beyer's methodology in routes seems to be declining in routes, I dont begin to understand why he is of opinion horses around the country save GP are getting slower. I dont know. I do know Andy Beyer knows WAY more about horses and racing then I do in fact probably more then everyone but a select few. He like all of us gets it wrong in a sport that is incredibly humbling, that hardily mitigates his brilliance as a capper and historian of the sport.

Do I think Coach Inge would have been competitive in the Belmont saturday? Not a chance but what do I know

I should clarify that from my perspective, his numbers seem a lot less tinkered with and/or biased with mid to low level racing. They are frequently fishy with the highest levels of racing.

I think they adjust these figures if they don't like what the numbers say.

You may be right about him knowing more than you, but keep in mind, he didn't really even invent the speed figures that are named for him. Also, it's often useful to question those that allegedly know more than you.