15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Freddy, it's as significant that he was a 2YO champ as it is that he has a short tail. Who cares? Last year's 2YOs were largely a joke with their abbreviated campaigns. Add to it that the widespread belief was that AP would have won the Juvenile, regardless of the negative pace setup he would have faced, because a horse he beat in the prep ended up winning it.

I respectfully disagree for the following :

1) History.. of the last 7 winners of TC 6 proved themselves to be outstanding at two to discount this is to suggest that it doesnt matter what you are at two. I can give you 14 out of 15 reasons why that in fact is significant with the lone exception an all time Giant that had a dopey ride on from a novice.

2) To discount brilliance at 2 that affords a championship and carry's into the 3 year old year suggests a lack of emphasis on how infrequent it happens. Uncle Mo is a perfect example as good/fast a baby as I have ever seen just never made it to TC.. Lesson when it happens it means a lot

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I respectfully disagree for the following :

1) History.. of the last 7 winners of TC 6 proved themselves to be outstanding at two to discount this is to suggest that it doesnt matter what you are at two. I can give you 14 out of 15 reasons why that in fact is significant with the lone exception an all time Giant that had a dopey ride on from a novice.

2) To discount brilliance at 2 that affords a championship and carry's into the 3 year old year suggests a lack of emphasis on how infrequent it happens. Uncle Mo is a perfect example as good/fast a baby as I have ever seen just never made it to TC.. Lesson when it happens it means a lot

i really thought you were being tongue in cheek above.

[Alabama Stakes]

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

ditto

[declansharbor]

Since this thread is all about proclaiming opinions as truths, here's my "fact" for the masses.

He breaks clean, settles in, and runs away from them in the stretch. Triple Crown drought is ova!

[Dunbar]

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

The reality is that of course AP can win the TC. The only reasonable question is what are his chances. 25%? 50%? 67%? I haven't capped it yet, but I doubt the odds should be outside that range.

Here's a question for freddymo: If AP had run exactly the same races with exactly the same results, but had not won the 2-yr-old Championship, would you then think he is less likely to win the TC? In fact, AP only beat Texas Red 126-111 in the Eclipse voting. If Texas Red had been voted 2-yr-old Champion, would that mean AP now has less chance to win the TC?

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

The reality is that of course AP can win the TC. The only reasonable question is what are his chances. 25%? 50%? 67%? I haven't capped it yet, but I doubt the odds should be outside that range.

Here's a question for freddymo: If AP had run exactly the same races with exactly the same results, but had not won the 2-yr-old Championship, would you then think he is less likely to win the TC? In fact, AP only beat Texas Red 126-111 in the Eclipse voting. If Texas Red had been voted 2-yr-old Champion, would that mean AP now has less chance to win the TC?

lol funny stuff

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

I posted about this the other day to some degree...

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=56

It's impossible to have a logical, honest conversation about horses like this with some folks. Their percentages are 100% winner and there is no way it's anything but that. Despite the fact, ya know, it's horse racing.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

Did you see the derby when he was the dog wearing down the undefeated Dortmund, you know the battle tested horse that gets passed in the lane and then comes back to win, 106 BSF colt. And the well rested Firing Line?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

Whose going to dog him? Materiality is the only that will be able to press him and will get put away by mile pole if he does. The rest of the field is too slow. If AP stays healthy going into this race he will be very tough to beat based on this field.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Whose going to dog him? Materiality is the only that will be able to press him and will get put away by mile pole if he does. The rest of the field is too slow. If AP stays healthy going into this race he will be very tough to beat based on this field.

Materiality should be going for the Crown, if he had a clean break, he will win the Belmont, and silence the crowd

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

You're gonna compare a race where the jock was hopped up on a lot of toot to this? And there's always the story of the safety pin....

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by asudevil

You're gonna compare a race where the jock was hopped up on a lot of toot to this? And there's always the story of the safety pin....

Go read Bids pp's . And in 79 when toot was real everybody was hopped up. The point is that better hosses than AP have failed.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

2) To discount brilliance at 2 that affords a championship and carry's into the 3 year old year suggests a lack of emphasis on how infrequent it happens. Uncle Mo is a perfect example as good/fast a baby as I have ever seen just never made it to TC.. Lesson when it happens it means a lot

Fred, let's look at dual classic winners:

1963: Chateaugay- won 2 of 5 starts at 2; lost Preakness
1964: Northern Dancer- champion 2yo in Canada (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont
1966: Kauai King- won 1 of 4 starts at 2; lost Belmont
1967: Damascus- won 3 of 4 starts at 2 including Remsen; lost Derby
1968: Forward Pass- stakes winner in 2 starts at 2; lost Belmont
1969: Majestic Prince- winner of both starts at 2; lost Belmont
1971: Canonero II- won 1 of 3 starts at 2 (2 in NA); lost Belmont
1972: Riva Ridge- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Preakness
1974: Little Current- maiden in 4 starts at 2; lost Derby
1976: Bold Forbes- won 7 of 8 starts including stakes; lost Preakness
1979: Spectacular Bid- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont
1981: Pleasant Colony- won 2 of 5 starts including Remsen; lost Belmont
1984: Swale- won 5 of 7 (2nd in vote for champion); lost Preakness
1987: Alysheba- won 1 of 7 starts, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Belmont
1988: Risen Star- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Derby
1989: Sunday Silence- won 1 of 3 starts; lost Belmont
1991: Hansel- won 3 of 5, stakes winner; lost Derby
1993: Tabasco Cat- won 3 of 6, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Derby
1995: Thunder Gulch- won 2 of 6 including Remsen; lost Preakness
1997: Silver Charm- won 2 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont
1998: Real Quiet- won 2 of 9 starts, including G1; lost Belmont
1999: Charismatic- won 1 of 7 starts; lost Belmont
2002: War Emblem- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Belmont
2003: Funny Cide- won 3 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont
2004: Smarty Jones- won 2 of 2 including stakes; lost Belmont
2006: Afleet Alex- won 4 of 6, G1, 2nd in Eclipse voting; lost Derby
2008: Big Brown- won only start at 2; lost Belmont
2012: I'll Have Another- won 1 of 3, stakes placed; did not attempt TC
2014: California Chrome- won 3 of 7, including stakes; lost Belmont

Now, recent Triple Crown winners:
1973: Secretariat- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9)
1977: Seattle Slew- champion 2yo (won 3 of 3)
1978: Affirmed- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9)

Finally,

2015: American Pharaoh- champion 2yo (won 2 of 3)

Other curiosities:

-2 of Bob Baffert's other Triple Crown failures won 2 of 3 starts as 2yos. American Pharaoh won 2 of 3 starts as a 2yo.

-of all the horses listed, only 2 ran in the Del Mar Futurity at 2, Silver Charm and California Chrome, both of whom failed in the Belmont. American Pharaoh won the Del Mar Futurity last year.

-average starts at 2 for modern Triple Crown winner = 7
-average starts at 2 for recent Triple Crown failure = 5

-24 of the 29 Triple Crown failures competed in stakes as 2yos

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Fred, let's look at dual classic winners:

1963: Chateaugay- won 2 of 5 starts at 2; lost Preakness
1964: Northern Dancer- champion 2yo in Canada (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont
1966: Kauai King- won 1 of 4 starts at 2; lost Belmont
1967: Damascus- won 3 of 4 starts at 2 including Remsen; lost Derby
1968: Forward Pass- stakes winner in 2 starts at 2; lost Belmont
1969: Majestic Prince- winner of both starts at 2; lost Belmont
1971: Canonero II- won 1 of 3 starts at 2 (2 in NA); lost Belmont
1972: Riva Ridge- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Preakness
1974: Little Current- maiden in 4 starts at 2; lost Derby
1976: Bold Forbes- won 7 of 8 starts including stakes; lost Preakness
1979: Spectacular Bid- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont
1981: Pleasant Colony- won 2 of 5 starts including Remsen; lost Belmont
1984: Swale- won 5 of 7 (2nd in vote for champion); lost Preakness
1987: Alysheba- won 1 of 7 starts, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Belmont
1988: Risen Star- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Derby
1989: Sunday Silence- won 1 of 3 starts; lost Belmont
1991: Hansel- won 3 of 5, stakes winner; lost Derby
1993: Tabasco Cat- won 3 of 6, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Derby
1995: Thunder Gulch- won 2 of 6 including Remsen; lost Preakness
1997: Silver Charm- won 2 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont
1998: Real Quiet- won 2 of 9 starts, including G1; lost Belmont
1999: Charismatic- won 1 of 7 starts; lost Belmont
2002: War Emblem- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Belmont
2003: Funny Cide- won 3 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont
2004: Smarty Jones- won 2 of 2 including stakes; lost Belmont
2006: Afleet Alex- won 4 of 6, G1, 2nd in Eclipse voting; lost Derby
2008: Big Brown- won only start at 2; lost Belmont
2012: I'll Have Another- won 1 of 3, stakes placed; did not attempt TC
2014: California Chrome- won 3 of 7, including stakes; lost Belmont

Now, recent Triple Crown winners:
1973: Secretariat- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9)
1977: Seattle Slew- champion 2yo (won 3 of 3)
1978: Affirmed- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9)

Finally,

2015: American Pharaoh- champion 2yo (won 2 of 3)

Other curiosities:

-2 of Bob Baffert's other Triple Crown failures won 2 of 3 starts as 2yos. American Pharaoh won 2 of 3 starts as a 2yo.

-of all the horses listed, only 2 ran in the Del Mar Futurity at 2, Silver Charm and California Chrome, both of whom failed in the Belmont. American Pharaoh won the Del Mar Futurity last year.

-average starts at 2 for modern Triple Crown winner = 7
-average starts at 2 for recent Triple Crown failure = 5

-24 of the 29 Triple Crown failures competed in stakes as 2yos

Correct me IF I wrong because all you have done is repp'd nothing which discounts the simple fact that of the last 7 2 year old champs that have attempted to win TC WHEN THEY WON THE FIRST 2 LEGS ONLY S Bid lost. YES OR NO will do.

[Sightseek]

I have a very important question....


what is toot???

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I have a very important question....


what is toot???

In my world Cocaine

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Correct me IF I wrong because all you have done is repp'd nothing which discounts the simple fact that of the last 7 2 year old champs that have attempted to win TC WHEN THEY WON THE FIRST 2 LEGS ONLY S Bid lost. YES OR NO will do.

it's a good sign that we had 7 chances in the 2000's so far.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Correct me IF I wrong because all you have done is repp'd nothing which discounts the simple fact that of the last 7 2 year old champs that have attempted to win TC WHEN THEY WON THE FIRST 2 LEGS ONLY S Bid lost. YES OR NO will do.

hmmm. You want a yes/no answer from Rollo Tomasi, but you avoided my question to you. Let me paraphrase it: If the close voting for 2014 Juvenile Champion had gone the other way, and Texas Red had won it, would that mean that American Pharoah would have a smaller chance to win the TC, in your opinion?

You've written that AP is "a stone cold cinch" to win the Belmont. How much of that is due to his squeaking out a 53%/47% win over Texas Red, 126-111? In fact, AP got less than 50% of all the votes cast for 2-yr-old Champion.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

hmmm. You want a yes/no answer from Rollo Tomasi, but you avoided my question to you. Let me paraphrase it: If the close voting for 2014 Juvenile Champion had gone the other way, and Texas Red had won it, would that mean that American Pharoah would have a smaller chance to win the TC, in your opinion?

You've written that AP is "a stone cold cinch" to win the Belmont. How much of that is due to his squeaking out a 53%/47% win over Texas Red, 126-111? In fact, AP got less than 50% of all the votes cast for 2-yr-old Champion.

So you want a yes no respond to a hypothetical question? If AP hadn't won the two year award for best Juvy colt he would had to overcome a 0/22 historical statistic and theoretically be very much up against history. I would suggest that given his actual form I would not be nearly are convinced he would be successful in Belmont. History is not to be dismissed as decades of situations tend to even out many a variable.